Guess which item was last in line?

[Stone-13352]

So since I have less than two weeks left I’m sorting out my nonseasonal gear. I always end up with a whole bunch of the same item because when I pick them up I think they might be good, but eventually I have to select the best of them.

I generally collect them all, and put them in order according to the the value of their Legendary Power. For example, the Dead Man’s Legacy quiver has up to +200% to Multishot. So from the left I line them up, +200% and down.

Guess which items are always the last in line? That’s right, the Ancient ones. And why?

Because Ancient items roll like crap.

I threw out all the DMLs below 195%, and that left me with +200%, +199%, +199%, +198%, and +195%. Of course, the Ancient one is 195%, the last one in the list. I threw out two other Ancients that were in the +180%s, and three other normal ones that were +191% to +194%.

It’s like this with almost every item. Put them in line according to Legendary Power, and the Ancient ones will always be at the bottom of the barrel.

Why is that?

Epilogue: I was lucky enough to pick up one Primal one (equipped), and fortunately, Blizzard made sure that that one always rolls with +12 Discipline, so I was able to roll off one useless property for an additional +15% to Multishot. So I have 1000, 1000, 20, 10, 15, 12, 200.

[Alexismad-1310]

@Stone-13352

Guess which items are always the last in line? That’s right, the Ancient ones. And why?

Or could be because you have 10 chances to get a good regular one and 1 chance to get a good ancient one. The range is 150% to 200%, so roughly a 1/20 chance to get a DML with 195%+ and a 1/200 chance to get an ancient one.

If it makes you feel better, I usually get 1 or 2 a season that are ancient and 198%+. Now as far as a good ancient Yangs, those are elusive for me.

@Stone-13352

Epilogue: I was lucky enough to pick up one Primal one (equipped), and fortunately, Blizzard made sure that that one always rolls with +12 Discipline,

If only this were true. Think I have found 3-4 Primal DML’s in my D3 history and none have rolled with discipline, including the one I found this season. Now I am stuck with Sentry damage on the one I have , so a wasted affix for my UE DH.

[naksiloth-1354]

@Stone-13352

Why is that?

I have my tinfoil hat ready and popcorn bag at microwave steady. It’s not because Blizzard hates you and monitor your game to pour a turn of shots whenever you fail to accomplish your loot to be perfect. Allegedly, at some occassions game may decide to reward you, or only toss you random loot with nonoptimal stats. We can’t exactly say if game code can tell them apart.

Answer is simple; it’s just random being random. Only 10% of the legendary loot you encounter can be Ancient, and rest of the legendary loot would be regular grade. By the laws of possibilities and some mathcraft; you must have realize that you’ll encounter a good rolled regular legendary more often than of Ancient grade.
If you take random 100 legendary items in bulk, with 90 regular grade and 10 ancient grade, only like 1-2 of them will be godly and it’s highly possible that those godly ones will be among the regular grade loot at 9 times out of 10. Combinations make or break the item; while high grade only ensures it will roll for higher stat range, quality to qualify usage is not guaranteed.

[Meteorblade-2266]

@Stone-13352

Because Ancient items roll like crap.

I’ve lost count of the times you’ve claimed this sort of thing.
Every single time we’ve investigated the data proved your claim not to be true.

Every. Single. Time.

[Kirottu-2131]

Some RNG is necessary but sometimes there’s just too much of it.

I’ve said it several times, items need either more predetermined affixes or at least have their available affix pools significantly trimmed down. Offhands in particular are notoriously difficult to roll well since they have the largest pools of possible affixes to roll with on top of their normal roll ranges and often very few predetermined affixes. Compare that to for example CoE ring which always rolls with main stat, CHC and socket, regardless of quality, making it one of the easiest items to roll great as the affix pool is limited too.

There are massive disparities in RNG between items.

[Strix-2106]

Worst item ever : the Compass Rose

[Kargon-2720]

Ninth Cirri Satchel ain’t no picnic either. A RNG range of 150% on the legendary effect and 2/3 random properties that must roll right. (If you want to equip it that is)

[MadTom-2218]

Most of the DH Quivers and Crusader shields are among the items that are very hard to get correct rolls.

[Strix-2106]

Same thing with mojos, so

@Kirottu-2131

Offhands in particular are notoriously difficult to roll

[MicroRNA-1507]

I do wish that some had a better understanding of probability and statistics.

[Stone-13352]

Hey I get it. If I have 10,000 regular DML’s, and 10,000 Ancient DML’s, I’ll probably end up with just as many really good Ancient ones as I do regular ones. But I don’t get that. I get 10,000 regular DML’s and 1000 Ancient DMLs. What I’ll get is more likely to look like this:
Throw out the best 10% of all 20,000 of these, and the worst 25% of them, and then take an average value of the Legendary powers of all the remaining normal and Ancient ones. The average Legendary power for the Ancient ones is always going to be lower than the average Legendary power for the normal ones. You could graph the results and there may be a few places where they intersect, but generally that Ancient line is going to be lower than the normal line.

Now you can trust the word of the guy who plays one account, and is a mathematician who’s hung up on statistics and probabilities, or you can trust the observations of a player who has played this game on a daily basis on six accounts over the last 12 years and has seen literally millions of items drop. Trends in the results of these drops cannot be ignored, and drawing general conclusions based on those trends is certainly valid.

Once again, the game may be following a certain set of randomly programmed behaviors, but when I’m playing, I react to how it feels. Not what the math shows.

Take that stupid Compass Rose for example. The thing almost never drops with a socket, and more often than not you’ll get a completely useless list of defensive properties, especially so if the thing is Ancient.

Right now I have 13 Compass Rose rings in my inventory. Four of those are Ancient. I had other Ancient ones but they were so horrible I couldn’t keep them for any reason. All four of these are brimming with useless defensive stats, and not a single one has a socket. One of them does have IAS, and another one has an average damage roll. Other than that it’s Resistance, Armor, Life Regen/on Hit, and one has CDR (which I can use).

Of the nine normal examples, five dropped with a socket. Two of those dropped with CHD and CHC, two with average damage, and one with IAS. The last four don’t have a socket, but each one of those has at least one of average damage, CHC, or IAS, and I can roll on a socket.

What about getting a Traveler’s Pledge with some elemental damage?

Now I don’t know how things are with other classes, because I generally play Demon Hunter and Wizard. Maybe sometimes a Monk, and some weird times a Barbarian, so I don’t really know a lot about the gear for other classes, but if you ask me how any DH piece of gear is likely to drop, I can tell you, pretty accurately, from experience, not with a calculator.

[Alexismad-1310]

@Stone-13352

I get 10,000 regular DML’s and 1000 Ancient DMLs. What I’ll get is more likely to look like this:

Correct. So next season right down what all the MS rolls are on your regular ones and ancient ones. Then take an average. Both should be around 175% +/- a few percent. As for your regular one being the best, well, it is 10x more likely the regular one will be the best.

@Stone-13352

Once again, the game may be following a certain set of randomly programmed behaviors, but when I’m playing, I react to how it feels.

This is usually your problem, confirmation bias. You can’t go with what you feel like. You need to actually do the work.

I hate Urshi. I always feel she is jamming me at 60%. One season I did around 100 GRs with all gem upgrades at 60% and charted them. My results were like 59.4% which is totally within the realm of possibility.

I always feel I rarely get a stupid ancient puzzle ring. This season, I tested it. So far I have found 71 puzzle rings, 6 have been ancient. I am slightly under the statistical average, but 71 is a small sample size, so my results are still in the range I can expect to happen.

No hate here, just do the work and actually test it out. The results are probably not what you are going to expect.

@Stone-13352

Take that stupid Compass Rose for example. The thing almost never drops with a socket, and more often than not you’ll get a completely useless list of defensive properties, especially so if the thing is Ancient.

Affixes are different as some are weighted more than others. This is why when you reroll at that Prime Evil mystic, you are way more likely to get armor on your amulet than you are cc/cd/elemental/socket. They make the affixes people actually want artificially harder to get so you will play more.

[Meteorblade-2266]

@Stone-13352

a mathematician who’s hung up on statistics and probabilities

@Stone-13352

I react to how it feels. Not what the math shows.

And this is why you’re still making threads like this, i.e. because you feel it’s broken despite the facts, maths and statistics proving that it’s not.

If I have £5 in the bank, but I say I feel like I’m a billionaire, would it be a problem if people pointed out that I’m not a billionaire?

[Mattelot-1113]

@Stone-13352

Now you can trust the word of the guy who plays one account, and is a mathematician who’s hung up on statistics and probabilities

Several of these guys are frauds. They know most people are not good at math, so they sling around a bunch of made up or plagiarized formulas to project the illusion they’re smart. I see it on every game forum I post in where math is a factor, including this one. They know most will never know any better. Take them with a grain of salt.

@Stone-13352

you can trust the observations of a player who has played this game on a daily basis on six accounts over the last 12 years and has seen literally millions of items drop.

On the same token, without evidence, it’s still anecdotal, which can be useful, but in a lot of cases, not as credible.

[Meteorblade-2266]

@Mattelot-1113

They know most will never know any better.

Stone / StoneOld / Slamboney should know better precisely because he has a multi-year history of making these sorts of feelings-based threads which are not supported by the evidence. When we actually get a claim where it’s easily possible to investigate his claims, and we do, it turns out that his claims are absolute bunkum.

Exhibit A…

@StonePro-11912

Why is it that crafted Legendary items and sets have a propensity to roll Vitality but no main stat? With an occurrence of about 8:1, I get Vit but no Dex

@StonePro-11912

I see trends that others, who tell me I am imagining things, don’t see

@Meteorblade-2266

Just so we’re absolutely certain, could you nominate a specific level 70 crafted legendary that you think exhibits the problem you’re reporting the best and whether you’d like a STR, DEX or INT hero do the crafting? That way anyone interested in testing could craft 100 of them and post their results.

@StonePro-11912

Okay, let’s go with any bow or crossbow.

@Meteorblade-2266

Anyway, once you nominate which of the bows or crossbows you want to use as the basis of the experiment, I’ll craft 90 of them. That way, if your claim of a 1:8 ratio of mainstat:vitality is even approaching correct, roughly 10 of them should have DEX, and 80 of them should have VIT.

@Meteorblade-2266

I’d already chosen Sovereign Doubleshot bows before reading your reply, crafted them and noted the results…

@Meteorblade-2266

You claimed there is a 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality on crafted items.

If that was true, 10/90 items should have had DEX but there were 53.
If that was true, 80/90 items should have had VIT but there were 49.

This is why people are sceptical about the things “only you see”.

@StonePro-11912

But here’s what I’m going to do; I’m going to craft 50 each of the following items:

Bows
Sydyru Crust - Lv 70
Venomhusk - Lv 60
Longshot - Lv 20

Crossbows
Arcane Barb - Lv 70
Starspine - Lv 57

Hand Crossbows
Hallowed Condemnation - Lv 70 *Set item
BlitzBolter - Lv 70
Hallowed Judgment - Lv 60 *Set item
Deadeye - Lv 41

@Meteorblade-2266

So, once again, nominate a specific weapon. I don’t care if it’s a level 70 legendary, a sub-70 legendary or a sub-70 rare. Just pick one. Name it. Go on, I’m willing to craft 90 of them and record my results again.

@StonePro-11912

You’re very gracious. Let’s craft a Blitzbolter.

@Meteorblade-2266

Okay, so I crafted 90 Blitzbolter hand crossbows…

@Meteorblade-2266

You claimed there is a 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality on crafted items.

If that was true, 10/90 items should have had DEX but there were 56.
If that was true, 80/90 items should have had VIT but there were 55.

@Meteorblade-2266

Altogether, I’ve already crafted 180 bows (90 rares, 90 legendaries) so I’m not sure why you think making 250 will be vastly different.

If your claim was true, the approximate results should have been…
20/180 with DEX
160/180 with VIT

The actual results were…
109/180 with DEX
104/180 with VIT

The DEX value varies by 445% from your 1:8 ratio claim.
The VIT value varies by 54% from your 1:8 ratio claim.

The results aren’t even remotely close to your claim.

@Meteorblade-2266

My overall results from crafting 180 weapons were…
109/180 with DEX
104/180 with VIT

Even if none of the 250 of the weapons Stone crafts had DEX on them, that would leave the overall results as…
109/430 with DEX
354/430 with VIT

109/430 = 25.39%
354/430 = 82.35%

For his 1:8 ratio claim to be true, those should be 11.11% and 88.88%, so even if 100% of his 250 crafts are without main stat, he still doesn’t get to his 1:8 claim, with a pool of 430 tests.

@StonePro-11912

And you get far too hung up on the numbers. If I say 5:1, or 10:1, or 23.5:4, I am not really “claiming” that that is a rock-solid accurate number, I’m saying that’s how it feels to me when I craft this stuff

@Meteorblade-2266

How you feel about crafting…
1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality.

How crafting actually is…
1.048:1 ratio of main stat to vitality.

@Meteorblade-2266

And you get too hung up on how you feel things are which, as ably demonstrated in this thread, isn’t even remotely close to how things are. You felt the ratio was 1:8 but it’s actually essentially 1:1.

@Meteorblade-2266

If you’re going to make threads like this, please at least make it clear that you’re making claims about how you feel things are, rather than making claims that they’re about how things actually are.

You’re prevaricating about providing the results of your 250 crafts because you know as well as I do that they won’t support your 1:8 ratio narrative.

@Meteorblade-2266

You claimed a 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality on crafted items based on how you feel. I immediately thought that this was unlikely to be true, based on my own experience crafting but I offered to help test this out because I wanted to find out. I did so because I prefer to base my opinions on how things actually work rather than how people think things work.

The results of my 180 crafts was that the ratio of DEX to VIT was almost exactly 1:1, i.e. not even close to your claim of 1:8.

@Meteorblade-2266

So, regardless of what the results are from your 450 crafts, even if not a single one of weapons had DEX on them, it still doesn’t get you to a 1:8 ratio.

My point of view is based on the fact that it’s mathematically impossible for you to prove your claim, even if 100% of the 450 weapons you’ve crafted don’t have DEX on them. But, by all means, take as long as you like to post results that can’t prove your case any more…

@StonePro-11912

I am emotionally motivated by the results I get rather than the results I’m looking for

@Meteorblade-2266

23 days and counting…
It’s almost as if you don’t want to publish your results.

@Meteorblade-2266

You could just save yourself, and everyone else, a lot of time by admitting that your data doesn’t support your initial claim of crafted items having a 1:8 ratio of Dexterity to Vitality.

You crafted 450 weapons.
Did 50 of them have DEX?
Did 400 of them have VIT?
Counting to 450 shouldn’t take you a month.

@Meteorblade-2266

I posted the results of 180 crafts in an hour or so. You haven’t posted the results of 450 crafts after five weeks. If your results actually confirmed what you’d claimed, you’d have posted them already.

@Meteorblade-2266

The results I got were an almost exact parity, i.e. a 1:1 ratio, of Main Stat to Vitality, which means your imagined 1:8 ratio wasn’t anywhere close to being correct. This is why, when you make claims that are so evidently false, that I enjoy responding to them with facts, evidence and maths showing that they’re false.

@Meteorblade-2266

Posting your results in the same format as I did, i.e. just plain ASCII, for 450 crafts should have taken you no more than a couple of hours. You’ve had over five weeks at this point and have failed to provide them.

@Meteorblade-2266

You’ve already said that your results from 450 crafts had pretty much the same ratio that my 180 crafts had, i.e. parity. That admission means that regardless of whether you bother to post your results or not, it proves that your claim of the 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality was complete nonsense.

@Meteorblade-2266

Still standing by…
2020 is rapidly approaching.
Do you reckon you’ll publish in the same year you said you would?

He switched to a brand new thread with his crafting results (after about 5 weeks of saying he’d provide them)…

@StonePro-11912

I said that with a ratio of about 8:1 I get Vitality but no Dexterity on an item.

So naturally Meteorblade (whom everyone knows is a robot) showed up, and proved to me that statistically my claim of 8:1 is unsubstantiated and farcical.

@Meteorblade-2266

I contributed to the thread because the claim you made seemed highly unlikely to me but also because it was very easily testable to see if the claim was true or not. With just a couple of hours of testing and posting the results I demonstrated that your claim was not true. You responded saying that you wanted to do your own crafting to see if you got the same results as I did or not. You then prevaricated for five weeks before making this thread.

You’ve made a very pretty spreadsheet, with graphs, and lots of other irrelevant stuff but the part that actually pertained to your original claim is summarised here…

Legendary weapons…
188 of 356 crafts had VIT present
205 of 356 crafts had DEX present
That’s a 0.917:1 ratio of VIT to DEX.

Ancient weapons…
54 of 94 crafts had VIT present
71 of 94 crafts had DEX present
That’s a 0.718:1 ratio of VIT to DEX.

You don’t appear to have combined these, but let’s do that too…
242 of 450 crafts had VIT present
276 of 450 crafts had DEX present
That’s a 0.877:1 ratio of VIT to DEX.

How about if we combine the results of my 180 crafts and your 450 crafts…
351 of 630 crafts had VIT present
380 of 630 crafts had DEX present
That’s a 0.924:1 ratio of VIT to DEX.

@Meteorblade-2266

I would have commented earlier if you’d actually provided these results in your original thread because it would have shown up in in my notifications. But, anyway, 0.924:1 is a long way from 8:1, wouldn’t you say?

I respond to your threads where you make statistical claims precisely because you tend to base them on how you feel things are, rather than how things actually are.

@StoneOld-1798

Yup…just about 50-50, or 1:1. A long ways off from 8:1…I admit…I was angry…

So, yes, you’ll forgive me if I place absolutely zero weight on how he feels things work when we’ve repeatedly proven they work exactly how the statistics / maths say they should.

[Mattelot-1113]

@Meteorblade-2266

Stone / StoneOld / Slamboney should know better precisely because he has a multi-year history of making these sorts of feelings-based threads which are not supported by the evidence. When we actually get a claim where it’s easily possible to investigate his claims, and we do, it turns out that his claims are absolute bunkum.

Cool story, bro. Not interested in your attempts to try and vilify people.

@Meteorblade-2266

So, yes, you’ll forgive me if I place absolutely zero weight on how he feels things work when we’ve repeatedly proven they work exactly how the statistics / maths say they should.

Don’t give 2 s how you feel about his feelings, sorry.

I already addressed with him that anecdotal evidence isn’t always credible.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@Mattelot-1113

they sling around a bunch of made up or plagiarized formulas to project

Since you commented in.this thread, has anyone in this thread made up a formula or “plagiarized” a formula?

The area (A) of a circle is π multiplied by the radius (r) squared, whose formula is:

A = πr^2

Did I “plagarize” this formula? I am not sure that one can plagarize a formula.

[KEA-2181]

@MicroRNA-1507

I do wish

…every time I come across that phrase (or alike) my subconscious comes up with:

How to Create a Monster

Santa Hates You – How To Create A Monster

Be careful what you wish for
'cause wishes do come true
The monster you’re creating
Looks uncannily like you

[Kirottu-2131]

@Mattelot-1113

Cool story, bro. Not interested in your attempts to try and vilify people.

So you think when trolls spew unproven nonsense it’s fine but when those trolls get called out for their BS they’re suddenly victims?

Meteorblade provided evidence on Stone’s several year long streak of spewing nonsense. He’s not villifying anyone. You on the other hand seem to be willing to defend trolls due to your personal animosity towards certain people like Meteorblade.

[Mattelot-1113]

I don’t even know why I’m even bothering to answer something like this…

@Kirottu-2131

So you think when trolls spew unproven nonsense it’s fine but when those trolls get called out for their BS they’re suddenly victims?

Just because you don’t agree with someone doesn’t make them a troll. This isn’t 2005.

@Kirottu-2131

Meteorblade provided evidence on Stone’s several year long streak of spewing nonsense. He’s not villifying anyone. You on the other hand seem to be willing to defend trolls due to your personal animosity towards certain people like Meteorblade.

Mmmhmmmm, I’m sure he did.

I wasn’t defending anybody, even if I was, I don’t need to justify myself to you. I clearly stated to the OP that anecdotal evidence isn’t always credible. Nice selective reading and attempt to gaslight.