No main stat...(https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/d3/t/dh-weapon-crafting-results-are-finally-in/10359)

General Discussion
54

Okay, so I crafted 90 Blitzbolter hand crossbows…

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Craft	DEX	VIT	Craft	DEX	VIT	Craft	DEX	VIT
01	x		31	x	x	61		x
02	x		32	x	x	62		x
03	x		33	x	x	63	x	
04	x		34	x	x	64		x
05	x		35	x		65	x	x
06	x	x	36		x	66	x	x
07	x		37		x	67		x
08			38		x	68	x	
09	x		39	x	x	69	x	x
10	x	x	40	x	x	70	x	x
-------------------------------------------------------------------
11	x		41		x	71	x	x
12	x	x	42	x	x	72	x	
13		x	43	x		73		x
14	x		44	x		74		
15		x	45	x	x	75	x	
16			46			76	x	
17	x	x	47	x	x	77	x	x
18		x	48		x	78	x	x
19	x		49	x	x	79		x
20		x	50		x	80		x
-------------------------------------------------------------------
21	x	x	51		x	81	x	
22		x	52		x	82	x	
23		x	53		x	83	x	x
24		x	54			84	x	x
25			55	x	x	85	x	x
26	x		56	x	x	86	x	x
27	x	x	57	x		87		
28	x	x	58	x	x	88	x	
29		x	59	x	x	89		
30	x	x	60	x		90	x	
-------------------------------------------------------------------

DEX Only    = 24/90 = 26.67%
VIT Only    = 23/90 = 25.56%
DEX and VIT = 32/90 = 35.56%
DEX Present = 56/90 = 62.22%
VIT Present = 55/90 = 61.11%

You claimed there is a 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality on crafted items.

If that was true, 10/90 items should have had DEX but there were 56.
If that was true, 80/90 items should have had VIT but there were 55.

Compare that to the results of crafting level 70 rare bows…

I’d say this pretty much blows your claim of a 1:8 ratio out of the water.

1 Like
55

Well done. We’ll see if your results are consistent as I craft 50 of 5 different bows.

Standby…

Update: actually ended up to be 50 of 9 different bows.
56

Altogether, I’ve already crafted 180 bows (90 rares, 90 legendaries) so I’m not sure why you think making 250 will be vastly different.

If your claim was true, the approximate results should have been…
20/180 with DEX
160/180 with VIT

The actual results were…
109/180 with DEX
104/180 with VIT

The DEX value varies by 445% from your 1:8 ratio claim.
The VIT value varies by 54% from your 1:8 ratio claim.

The results aren’t even remotely close to your claim.
Save yourself the time and materials.

57

So, about those results…

58

Are you suggesting that his results may fit probability/statistically with yours?

Waiting anxiously too.

59

My overall results from crafting 180 weapons were…
109/180 with DEX
104/180 with VIT

Even if none of the 250 of the weapons Stone crafts had DEX on them, that would leave the overall results as…
109/430 with DEX
354/430 with VIT

109/430 = 25.39%
354/430 = 82.35%

For his 1:8 ratio claim to be true, those should be 11.11% and 88.88%, so even if 100% of his 250 crafts are without main stat, he still doesn’t get to his 1:8 claim, with a pool of 430 tests.

60

It’ll take me a minute. I tend to be a little OCD, so I’m going far beyond where you went with the analysis of the crafts…

In the meantime, I’m sure everyone will have a great time talking about the upcoming WoW version of Diablo…

But I didn’t mean in this thread…
61

Why? The only thing relevant is the ratio of Main Stat to Vitality because you claimed a 1:8 ratio of them. The other affixes are irrelevant as you made no claims about them.

62

lol…Whatever, dude…let it go…

The general consensus in this topic is that crafted items, if they don’t roll like crap, have a questionable weighting system that makes nearly all the items less than satisfying to spend time and materials on.

And you get far too hung up on the numbers. If I say 5:1, or 10:1, or 23.5:4, I am not really “claiming” that that is a rock-solid accurate number, I’m saying that’s how it feels to me when I craft this stuff; that’s the way it feels to a lot of responders in this thread.

So I’m going to use my 250 bows to identify trends in not only the Dex and Vit, but the other 4 properties that land on the item, and the graphs will describe what is happening.

Note: I would have liked to have done that, but just tracking the decks and vitality and whether the item is Ancient or not is way too much work, especially since I crafted 450 bows. Geez.
Of course, you will say that crafting as little as 250 bows will tell nothing about the RNG “trends” if they exist, but I say sitting down and crafting 10 items in a row, which you are trying to use in the game will make you feel like there are trends, and that’s what counts. Not the dead-on calculated statistics, which you tend to like to hang your hat on…
63

Were you able to put together your numbers?

64

How you feel about crafting…
1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality.

How crafting actually is…
1.048:1 ratio of main stat to vitality.

And you get too hung up on how you feel things are which, as ably demonstrated in this thread, isn’t even remotely close to how things are. You felt the ratio was 1:8 but it’s actually essentially 1:1.

And here we are again. It’s about how you feel things are, rather than how they actually are. No-one’s surprised that there can be large, short-term variances in random events.

It’s like flipping a coin ten times, getting seven heads, and you extrapolating from that and assuming that if you flipped the coin 10,000 times you’d get 7,000 heads.

If you’re going to make threads like this, please at least make it clear that you’re making claims about how you feel things are, rather than making claims that they’re about how things actually are.

You’re prevaricating about providing the results of your 250 crafts because you know as well as I do that they won’t support your 1:8 ratio narrative.

1 Like
65

Standby. It’s coming. I have what…4 days to do one more Season Journey? Just finished #5 about 6 hours ago…

Besides, by the time I post my results, it will come as a welcome break between all the D2>D4 crybaby threads…

66

OK, I started filling in the table. I started with the level 70 Sydyru Crust bow. Interestingly, in the very first 8 crafts, I had 3 bows with Vit and no Dex, one bow with Dex and no Vit, and an Ancient bow with neither.

Funny, that’s a Dex ratio of 1 in 8 crafts, 1/4 Dex/Vit.

Pretty far away from your 50+% ratio, but we’ll see. I have crafted 450 of 9 different (cross)bows.

67

I don’t see a problem. Vit only promotes more all class gears, especially when you aug vit on it. Its wasting mats to roll one set for each bd oppose one generic set for all bds/classes.

68

Seriously? This is the best you can come up with after a week? Extrapolating results from a population of 8 results and thinking that extrapolation would be more accurate than the actual results from a population of 180 results?

This is like tossing a coin 8 times, only getting one head, and assuming that if you tossed it 1000 times, you’d only get 125 heads.

This is why no-one believes your claims about statistics.

3 Likes
69

You know, for a guy who gives an appearance of being smart, you write some of the stupidest retorts sometimes. Let’s review:

I said it was interesting, but “we’ll see.” I have 442 more bows to look at.

Are you some kind of politician or maybe a DMV clerk?

Anyway, I been busy this week. And I have other things to do than do my best to try to make as many people as possible look foolish, as it seems your goal on this discussion board is.

70

Look at my initial 90 crafts. If we just looked at the first 8 crafts…
DEX = 7
VIT = 6
DEX and VIT = 5
DEX present = 7
VIT present = 6

7/8 have main stat = 87.5%
6/8 have VIT = 75%

Remember, if your ratio was correct…
Main stat should be 11.11%
VIT should be 88.88%

Gosh, 87.5% sounds so different to 11.11% that perhaps variances in small population sizes are why statistical analysis is done with larger populations.

So, your results from just eight crafts is in no more interesting than mine is. It’s such a tiny population that it would be ridiculous to draw any conclusion from and it’s certainly not something you can extrapolate from. It took me around an hour altogether to post the results of 180 crafts. After multiple prompts, after a week, you’ve posted the results of 8 crafts.

Again, you’re prevaricating because you know fine well your full results just aren’t going to support your initial claim. They won’t even be close.

1 Like
71

Meteorblade, for the love of god, quit barricading and try to understand what I wrote there. I didn’t state any conclusion. I didn’t say anywhere that what I observed was itself a conclusion, or that it supported any conclusion.

I said it was “interesting.”

I could have said, “Hmmmph. With this game, it figures…” or, “That’s funny…sort of strange and ‘HaHa’ at the same time.”

But I guess all that would be lost on you as well.

But hey, maybe you’re just the kind of guy who has a one-track mind, or gets so focused on your own point of view that nothing anyone else says after you have made up your mind makes any difference.

Or maybe you are just baiting as many posters as you can so you can keep that post count up to preserve that holy grail, ‘TL3.’

Nevertheless, I have 442 more bows to check, and when I publish my findings, the data will be presented in several ways, along with a linked screenshot of every single line item, so that no matter what the conclusion, no one can say I’m just making things up.

72

I disagreed, and explained why, i.e. such a tiny sample size of results can have wildly varying results compared to a much larger sample size. You can’t reliably extrapolate from 8 data points and it’s asinine to attempt to do so.

You claimed a 1:8 ratio of main stat to vitality on crafted items based on how you feel. I immediately thought that this was unlikely to be true, based on my own experience crafting but I offered to help test this out because I wanted to find out. I did so because I prefer to base my opinions on how things actually work rather than how people think things work.

The results of my 180 crafts was that the ratio of DEX to VIT was almost exactly 1:1, i.e. not even close to your claim of 1:8.

A week ago you were going to craft 250. Now you say you have 442 more to check? Where did the extra 200 weapons come from? Anyway…

From my existing 180 weapons, we already have these results…
DEX = 109 weapons (60.56%)
VIT = 104 weapons (57.78%)

Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, the 450 weapons you crafted obeyed your claimed 1:8 ratio of DEX to VIT. That would mean your results would be…
DEX = 50 weapons (11.11%)
VIT = 400 weapons (88.88%)

That would give us a total sample size of 630 weapons, with the amalgamated numbers of…
DEX = 109+50 = 159 weapons (25.24%)
VIT = 104+400 = 504 weapons (80.00%)

How about, in the incredibly unlikely scenario that not a single weapon you crafted came with main stat. That would give us a total sample size of 630 weapons, with the amalgamated numbers of…
DEX = 109+0 = 109 weapons (17.30%)
VIT = 104+450 = 554 weapons (87.94%)

If your ratio was true, the correct result for a sample size of 630 crafts should be…
DEX = 70 weapons (11.11%)
VIT = 560 weapons (88.88%)

So, regardless of what the results are from your 450 crafts, even if not a single one of weapons had DEX on them, it still doesn’t get you to a 1:8 ratio.

My point of view is based on the fact that it’s mathematically impossible for you to prove your claim, even if 100% of the 450 weapons you’ve crafted don’t have DEX on them. But, by all means, take as long as you like to post results that can’t prove your case any more…

73

I found some extra mats, and I wanted to have a good sample of each bow type, so I decided to do 50 of each midstream.

Also, I think I posted this after crafting like 20 bows, the 2 or 3 with Dex so bad I couldn’t use them, and you know what an irrational hothead I am, so I made the post then and there, and notice I said “an occurrence of about…”

So 4:1, 12:1, about 8:1… all the same…lol…now don’t get all wound up. I’m joking…I’m not saying those are actually all the same…

Anyway, work continues…