So, you know those low win rate heroes which people say are OP?

General Discussion
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They should take them up!!!

Seriously, they have worked out how strong they are, and everyone else is playing them badly.

They argue that they are in fact brokenly overpowered, because of, say… slam or shields in the case of doom, or hack from Sombra, or the oneshots from Widow.

Like, that GREAT! They can take them up and climb crazy fast. Because they have realised something about them, that the rest of the play base obviously doesn’t get.

So, go get them, you low ranked, people who have it all worked out.

Show us how it goes!

We believe in you!!!

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I think the winrate we have access to is statistical gibberish.

It’s mostly just an indicator if the hero is played more on Attack, or Defence.

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It isn’t gibberish, but it sure as hell isn’t showing what people think it shows.

What it DOES show is how easy a hero is to pick up when you don’t main them.

How do you think that works? I’ll show you my theories if you show me yours :wink:

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I do wish McCree haters were forced to queue as him for a few hours just to watch their precious SR plummet. Iz so ez, bro, just spam, mang.

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Yeah, but if it’s weighted by time played.

The the team with the highest time on Defence, wins.
And the team with the lowest time on Attack, wins.

If so, then that would explain why Defence heroes like Symm/Orisa/Brig/Torb always have high winrate.

And offence heroes like snipers, usually have low winrate.

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That IS clever, and I’ll add it to my list of stuff which influences it :slight_smile:

Ok, here is how it works overall.

Lets establish a baseline

You have a bell shaped curve, so, if you are low ranked, then, the players you can have in your games, are weighted towards the higher SR than you side.

If you are above the mid line, then the reverse is there.

If you plot out HOW much the weighting is for each SR, and check against the win rates, you end up with this REALLY nice matching curve.

Which is pretty awesome, because shows that SR more or less works.

Ok… now we have a base, which is your EXPECTED win rate for your SR. (which ALSO scales your win / loss SR from games, you NEED to hit that to break even)

We both know the mirroring effect, which pushes heroes towards THAT mid. for one to win, the other has to lose, but, the winner is usually the higher SR player.

Again, no surprises there.

What IS surprising is the effects of one tricks. They end up placed correctly soon enough, and then start winning/losing games based on the Sr average.

If they were winning more than the average implied, then they would move SR until they get to their status point.

So they PUSH the SR rating ALSO towards the mean for that rank, and do NOT influence the win rates for a hero.

Since they one trick, the attack / defence weighting doesn’t really do much either, since they will be playing on both. (but, I will need to think about that slightly more, and add that effect into the overwatch matchmaker simulation project, to do testing)

So who does? Well, the people who don’t one trick them.

That is where the influence comes from, people who either don’t normally play the hero, or people who main other heroes, but play some of this one.

Now that doesn’t mean they don’t indicate power to some degree. But what it REALLY excels at, is showing how strong a hero is, in the hands of a person who doesn’t know them well.

Or, where the skill floor is.

Which is why seeing someone who first takes up a low win rate hero which they are SURE is op is so funny to watch.

Because by definition they are NOT newbie friendly. The one thing you can say without a DOUBT about the low win rate heroes is they are NOT low skill (which is really low skill FLOOR)

But yeah… Attack / Defence DOES modify winingness. That is brilliant!

It would ALSO push the effects of the “by sr” averages changes, now that I think of it. Time to put it in the simulator!!!

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Btw, my latest and greatest on fixing Tanks seems nice.

Haven’t found any holes in it, and it doesn’t use any fancy mechanisms.

✅ Fixing BarrierTanks and OffTanks

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I like em!

They are good changes, and you know I am more than happy to say when I think changes are not good :slight_smile:

These are very good changes.

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Yeah, it really bothers me because the idea is solid, but I doubt the devs would ever come up with it.

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They DO read the forums and take stuff from it.

Even stuff around Mei…

Isn’t that right GreyFalcon? ಠ_ಠ

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That has been known to happen before.

  • Devs could put in a system to rapidly patch the game by only changing number values, allowing them to bypass console recertification.
  • Hero Pools should be weighted by reducing the number of tickets to a proportional ratio to their pickrate.
  • Hero Pools should only apply to Masters/GM, based on the average SR between all 12 players in the match, which I had a post ready on the subject and posted directly above Kaplan talking about it, then later down the thread he’s talking about “Maybe restricting it to Masters/GM”
  • Mei should have her intial slow reduced from 30% to 20%, the slow duration should be lowered from 1.75 to 0.75
  • Mei Freeze duration should be lowered from 1.5sec to 1.3sec so she can’t doubleheadshot off of a stun, same goes for McCree, and they could shave down the stun durations a bit on all the other stun attacks.
  • Mei Icewall should be nerfed such that you can break one pillar and a Tank can squeeze throuh. (Although I was thinking less pillars that are wider)
  • Mei ammo should be reduced in half, and Mei secondary ammo cost should be reduced in half
  • A gif showing that they could put RoleQueue and open Queue side-by-side, and saying how it would do a good job soaking up excess DPS
  • A mockup of the existing RoleQueue thats almost identical to what happened a month and a half before it came out, including something like Quickplay classic.

Although to be fair, you did think of the OpenQueue and RoleQueue side by side.

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