The myth of support balance

General Discussion
1

There’s a narrative that’s prevalent in the Overwatch community. Most players believe it. The Overwatch devs support it as well. It goes something like this:

The support class is finally set right. After a long year of all the other supports living in Mercy’s shadow, we are now playing in a support utopia where all the supports are viable and support diversity is at an all time high. The support balance patch was a rousing success.

The problem is that this narrative shares as many attributes in common with myth and with propaganda as it does with what’s actually going on in the game. Like many myths and propaganda, at its heart is a grain of truth.

A couple weeks after the start of season 10, when Brigitte and the Hanzo rework came out, the support meta changed very rapidly, and ossified. Zenyatta and Mercy were in, everyone else were out. This persisted from late May until early August, and something had to be done.

However, some parts of the narrative don’t really stand up to careful inspection. Let’s start by examining the supposed balance utopia. Some of the comparisons I’m going to make are between the current meta and periods of time before Brigitte was introduced. For the sake of consistency, I’m not including data about Brigitte. I don’t feel too conflicted about this since Brigitte often doesn’t take up a traditional healer spot. Consider the following lists of pick rates in all ranks (sorted, rounded to the nearest 1/10%, and with the names of the heroes removed so we can just focus on the numbers):

Option A: 9.7%, 8%, 5.9%, 4.9%, 4.4%
Option B: 9.9%, 9.2%, 5.7%, 4.3%, 3.9%
Option C: 10%, 7.2%, 5.2%, 3.8%, 3.6%

Which represents the most balanced support roster? Option A is the support roster on March 23 (the oldest date I had data for). Option B is the support roster on April 30 (the eve of season 10), and option C is the average for this past week.

Let’s look at the same dates, but only in GM:
Option A: 14.3%, 6.1%, 5%, 1.3%, 1.3%
Option B: 10.4%, 7.1%, 6.7%, 4.4%, 3%
Option C: 10.7%, 8.2%, 6%, 5.5%, 1.5%

Option A is the current week. Option B is March 23, and option C is April 30 (by the way - in both B and C the high pick rate is Zenyatta. In B, the second highest is Moira, and Mercy is the 4.4).

We can look rank by rank, and the conclusion doesn’t change. The support meta now is more balanced than it was in June and July. But it’s not better than it was in the time between the January 29th Mercy nerf and the Hanzo rework/introduction of Brigitte.

You can object that the meta during that time was in a state of change. But there’s no way of knowing where it would have ended without the season 10 changes. These changes had drastic support consequences. Lucio and Moira’s pick rates dropped off a cliff and flatlined (Moira’s were steadily declining, but not at anywhere near the season 10 rate). Mercy’s gain in pick rate accelerated, and Zenyatta’s soon after.

Furthermore, the claim presupposes that the post support changes situation is stable. People are remembering the relative support diversity in the first couple of weeks of August. We no longer live in that world.

Ana’s pick rates have been climbing very fast. They’re currently over 14% in GM, and are close to 12% in diamond. She’s even the most picked healer in gold. This is not a rational decision in gold: her win rate there is the lowest among all healers (it’s slightly lower than Mercy’s, which is saying something given Mercy’s sorry state). But pick rates in Overwatch flow from the top down. Any trend you see in gm will be mirrored (slower and smoother) in the lower ranks.

The support meta has not been completely solved yet, but it’s getting close: Pick Ana, don’t pick Mercy (and in high ranks Moira). You’ll see it in GM first, and it will eventually trickle all the way down. You’re seeing it already. The only question left to resolve is the off healer question. Once again the support meta is ossifying, and stabilizing in a spot that leaves little room for diversity. It’s only a matter of time.

So who benefited from the support changes? Who is viable and who is hurting? There are two clear winners of the support balance patch. The first is Lucio. He got a nice buff, his numbers increased, he’s once again competing for a spot (and is close to where he was in April). The second winner is Zenyatta. He was a must pick in the previous meta (and the period of time preceding it). Unlike the other culprits, he go off scot-free. He made off like a bandit. His pick rates, while lower, are still good and his win rate was not affected at all. He’s just as viable as ever, and he’s on no one’s radar.

Moira benefited somewhat, but not nearly enough. She’s way too niche specialized to be played much in high ranks. She’s not even always played in her niche comp (GOATS). She’s on the razor’s edge of viability in high ranks. She works in lower ranks, but even in gold she’s beginning to be eclipsed by Ana. Moira needed more than she got. She also never needed to have her healing through barriers removed.

Brigitte, another major offender in the previous meta, was barely affected by the changes. She was great then, she’s great now. Her pick rates and win rates essentially stayed the same.

The two losers of the support changes are Ana and Mercy (I know, this is controversial, but bare with me).

There’s not much that can be said about Mercy that hasn’t been said already. This month, she’s in the bottom 2 characters in terms of win rates in diamond - gm, and her distance from the average is huge. Her win rate in gm for instance is 49.82%. The average win rate in GM is 54.4%, and Mercy’s distance from 54.4% is almost 4 times the average character’s distance from there. Her pick rates at those ranks are plummeting as well (currently less than Moira’s in gm for instance). She’s not doing well even in plat and gold.

Mercy is currently a sub optimal and mediocre pick in gold, a bad pick in plat and diamond, and a throw pick in masters and gm. She’s not currently viable, and absolutely needs help. Her numbers have not been getting better, and her situation won’t change on its own. A previous post of mine got locked for calling the claim that Mercy is currently balanced a lie. I concede that the word “lie” is too harsh. It’s perfectly possible to honestly believe things that are in contradiction to empirical evidence. But the amount of evidence you have to ignore is enormous and is growing every day.

Ana is the other loser of the support changes. She got a great buff, which was good. And then her main competition was cast into the pit, which was bad. Ana’s pick rates are currently too high, and they’re rising. They’re too high in high ranks, and they’re getting there in lower ranks. The numbers make her look like a must pick.

We’re starting to notice the consequences of this with the variety of threads calling to nerf Ana. This isn’t a fit of pique from disgruntled Mercy mains. This is what always happens when a character’s pick rates climb this high. If you think Ana is immune to this, you haven’t been paying attention. She’s been nerfed harshly before. Most characters that reach must pick status have.

If you are a fan of Ana (a fanana) , you should right now be advocating for some changes to Mercy and Moira. You can hem and haw and delay. You can claim that Ana is fine, and you can claim that Mercy is fine, but Ana’s pick rates keep rising and the evidence against Mercy being fine is getting hard to look over. At the end of the day Blizzard pays attention to pick rates above all other numbers, and you don’t want their attention here.

In summary -

  • The support class is more balanced than it was two months ago, but not more balanced than it was four months ago. We’re not in a support balance utopia.
  • The support meta is more diverse than it was two months ago, but not more than it was four months ago, and the current diversity is shrinking.
  • Not all healers are currently viable, and one especially is far from being viable.
  • The current situation is likely to get worse over time. If it doesn’t result in buffs to Mercy (and possibly Moira), then it will result in nerfs to Ana.

Oh, and to forestall any comments about using Overbuff data:

73 Likes
2

Well written post overall. I agree with pretty much all of this.

One trend I have noticed since I started overwatch, which was way back in beta, is that most supports get very little buffs compared to other classes. Personally o find it disheartening overall, and at this point I’ve mostly stopped playing due to the whole mess with Mercy and supports in general.

9 Likes
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IMO all Ana needs is a reduction on her nano burst heal. Something like to 200 HP. The rest of her kit is fine.

Mercy should get some healing back. 60 and CD Rez is too much. You would need to replace Rez to give her the uncontested numbers healer crown again as both invalidates the rest of the class.

Moira has a more nuanced issue. She has no utility, which doesn’t matter in low tiers but she is almost useless with most comps the higher you go. She is also hard countered by Ana because she is so focused on healing. You would need to find something that isn’t healing nor damage to make her a good pick for anything other than “tank comps with the caveat that the enemy team doesn’t go Ana”.

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It is a bit surprising to me to see Mercy’s pick rate drop to a level almost resembling normal. I always assumed she’d remain near the top no matter what happened to her. Perhaps I underestimated the proportion of people who were playing her for her power level, as opposed to some combination of her character/story and relative ease of use.

Of course, in terms of balance, pick rates are a small fragment of what you should be looking at, since popularity is only indicative of power level if it’s matched with success. Ana is only outperforming Mercy in the upper leagues, which suggests they’re pretty close to where they should be, relative to each other.

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That probably because there are less supports to begin with.

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Personally, I’d like to see Ana left as is. Mercy needs 60 hps back, and res needs to be removed from the 30 second CD. I think both of these are necessary in any future iteration of the character.

13 Likes
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The upper leagues is the area where player skill’s impact on performance is minimal. The differences usually lie in hero kits and numbers, moreso than things like player aim or gamesense. Those players have those things as much as can be expected from a person playing the game in this format.

This is also why you can draw some conclusions from OWL but not all of it. Because the format also can cause differences in stats that will have little to nothing to do with how that hero will perform on ladder.

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Ana is outperforming Mercy in everything above gold, and the difference in gold is less than a fifth of a percent. Mercy is not even close to where she needs to be.

9 Likes
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what people mean about support balance/variation is no mercy lol
ana+lucio or zen that basically all my games. but this is okay since mercy has been meta forever and not the devs fault for poor balancing.

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The effect was overkill from the start. With Mercy nerfed and Brig added to scare off dive Ana would be in a good spot without the nano buff. I don’t like how you can now toss it anywhere and get huge value out of it. If it only healed 200 it would still be to strong I think.

Nano-boost is the pulse bomb of support ults. Its a very fast charge but not as powerful as other ults. But now with the instant heal it can turn a battle to much. Especially if you pop it on a Winston or Genji.

1 Like
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Ana got overtuned with the latest buff. She was bad against dive wich was meta for a year. With Brig to counter Winston, D.va and Tracer Ana would be in a good spot with just the Mag size buff and the heal through full HP allys. Now that Ana has great healing,amazing utility with anti-heal and sleep and now a great ultimate her kit feels to bloated and pushes Mercy and Moira out.

I don’t like how people seem to be ok with a overtuned Ana just becuase Mercy was OP for so long.

9 Likes
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I’d like to see what the balance would look like with a more reasonable Mercy and the current Ana. I don’t like how the recent balance changes have been sledgehammer swings. They prevent any understanding of what’s actually going on in the game.

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13

What I think should have happened is that Ana and Lucio shouldn’t have received buffs (except pass through teammates) and Mercy should have been nerfed to 55 hp/s then.

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I suppose it depends on the data set you look at. I prefer to look at a full month to avoid too much random variance from low data count (as long as the most recent changes were over a month ago, which they were). In that context, the point where they’re roughly equal is in Platinum. Ana gets steadily better as you go up, while Mercy’s better for Gold and below.

That’s a pretty healthy way to align them. I know some people prefer that the heroes with shallower curves be balanced at the top/pro level instead of somewhere in the middle, but that makes them oppressive for all the players who aren’t at that level, a.k.a. the vast majority of the player base.

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I disagree. Ana and Lucio needed buffs. Mercy should have either been left the same, or had Valkyrie/res tweaked.

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Ana was more or less fine it’s just that Mercy overshadowed her in literally every possible manner.

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I feel like there is still no reason to play Moira over Ana.

I’d consider myself a great Moira player but an average Ana player, I feel much more impactful as Ana. Anti-heal is too powerful.

Anti a few squishes + a Winston = ded team.

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18

Actually I pick Moira in two situation over Ana. If the enemy team is dive, and I can’t defend myself as Ana, I switch to Moira, who has more reliable self-healing and can keep herself alive with Fade better.

Or if there are a lot of tanks, or tanks that really soak damage like D. Va and Roadhog. Moira’s multi-healing capabilities are nothing to laugh at, especially since Ana can only heal one at a time.

4 Likes
19

I think the Mercy nerf was good. Supports are VERY strong in OW while maybe a bit boring to play sadly. Metas are always defined by supports becuase thay are so powerful. The bayblade meta, Triple tank, Bastion for that one week, quad tank, and now goats was all becuase of support heroes, Mostly Ana with her nade.

Lucio buffs was good but I think the Ana nano-buff should have waited until the Mercy nerf had some time to setle.

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It’s better balance than “pick Mercy every time”. At least Ana is not be all and end all of main healing.

2 Likes