Strangest matchmaking ever

Multiplayer Discussion
81

Maybe play mage? Looks like mages get a nice spread of matchups.

82

To be respectful, statistics, probilities and law of large numbers are not intuitive at all.
It’s fair to assume the vast majority of humankind is very biased when it comes to those mathematic fields.

It’s complex, and when associated to our very feelings, very easy to get wrong.
What is bad about it, is that we’re faced to probabilities and statistics all day long so we think we understand something about it. So that kind of discussions is always … spicy.

I know it’s difficult, because I often like to be disrespectful with stupid people, but on that particular topic, we can’t say that someone that doesn’t understand that are stupid, really, we can’t.

When it comes to statistics, especially when the outcome affects us directly, we’re under the effect of many many biases :

  • selective memory
  • sampling bias
  • gambler’s fallacy

And so much more.

It’s difficult, but we have to try to be patient with those kind of people and try to explain, because, it’s hard to grasp.

4 Likes
83

You can test it yourself and have the same results, stop trolling.

Today iv been playing poison rogue and now the meta is 75% ping mage with double ooze instead of yesterdays all day druid meta when i played druid

1 Like
84

Hearthstone uses algorithm to slow down rank up and try to bait people to buy packs to try other decks

85

It must be only for people who complain about rigging, because my results are different… So I suspect there is a forum bot that adds you to the rigged game algorithm list if you post about rigging. Because the one thing everyone complaining about rigging has in common, is that they complain about rigging.

3 Likes
86

Is that 75% meaning 3 out of 4 games you faced a Mage with double ooze? Or is it 150 out of 200 games? Also, I’m a little skeptical that you faced multiple decks running double ooze when most people are running 1 viper or, on rare occasion, 2 vipers. I’d love to see an HSReplay of a few of those matches where you saw 2 oozes played. If what you claim is true, they could have had to have played those oozes for you to know they run two of them.

I’d assume these 150 matches were played over a somewhat extended period of time. It could be explained by the possibility that as we approach the end of the month, players have achieved their target rank and have migrated to other decks. Additionally, as the new expansion approaches, folks might be trying out more of those other decks (maybe even meme decks) that they’ve wanted to play but never got around to it and now some of them are about to rotate out.

87

I realize what I offer is not proof.
But; Like I have said many times:
I have played every day for eight years.
That is an extraordinary amount of observation.
So; while not believing for an instant that the matching is unfair,
I highly doubt We see all there is to the matching.

88

Pretty sure he is just using the word ooze as general term for minion based weapon removal.

According to you, we wouldn’t have the same results though.

And if your statement to test and see the same results was also meant to be more general and not specific to your exact results, well plenty of people have already posted that we (yes, myself included) don’t get these counter matchups. We aren’t being forced into a 50% win rate.

So if the rigging is individual, it would appear to be very biased and not fair to everyone.

89

I’m not even sure what this means.
The best players in this game always hit Legend every month
irrespective of matching, or decks/classes faced. And even I hit Legend nine times consecutively in spite of matching.
That tells me that the matching is impartial. However;
I am fairly certain (if only to my own satisfaction) that it is not random, and deck composition plays some role in what you face.

90

I could have been more clear, so my apologies.

I was taking two different opinions, from two different people to simultaneously offer counters to both. At best, this simply shows that the two of you don’t agree, which didn’t need to be shown lol.

This is what I don’t agree with. Despite playing Hearthstone since release (some time off here and there) I haven’t observed anything to indicate this. So when you say it’s fair and treats everyone the same, I can honestly say this hasn’t been my experience at all. I realize you aren’t looking for a discussion on the matter though, you are satisfied with your observations.

Sorry for any confusion.

1 Like
91

I can understand why you might feel that way. But I think testing has been done on this on a very large scale and that testing does not support the same conclusions. According to Blizzard, players are matched solely on MMR when you have a star multiplier, Rank when you do not have a star multiplier, and MMR when you are at Legend. Now I’ll certainly weigh a comment from Blizzard with some skepticism, as they have a long history of dishonesty. But I don’t see the value to Blizzard in skewing matchups based on deck archetype when they already have a good system in place that automatically filters players toward a 50% win rate. And if they did, I can’t see how over all these years, Vicious Syndicate has not been able to identify and document this.

What I do think Blizzard might be manipulating is the chance of drawing a new Legendary card consistently for some period time after it’s purchased (or crafted) in order to give the buyer the immediate gratification for making that purchase in the hopes it would encourage more purchases. I don’t know if they are doing this, but I could see that being a possibility and something that VS might not be able to pick up.

1 Like
92

I appreciate the counterpoints.

93

Ultimately people believe all sorts of things and convince themselves they’re right. Look how many religions and variants there are, each with its own fantastical tales.

Scientific methods allow us to prove or disprove beliefs, and it’s trivial to prove rigging if it exists. You can search my post history for a step by step process that will prove or disprove the belief that matchups are influenced by deck type.

94

You’re contradicting yourself.

If someone believes they’re being cheated, it doesn’t make them want to buy packs. It makes them angry, just like you.

If the majority of the people get angry as a result, Blizzard doesn’t make money by rigging the game. It’s only in their interest to do so if the vast majority of people aren’t aware.

So it can’t be the case that “its easily visible for anyone who can count 1+1” because your entire theory completely falls apart unless the ability to see the rigging is the exception rather than the rule.

2 Likes
95

Are you denying there is “some” formula to match opponents?

Let’s start there.

Also: Please define “rigged”.

96

Thanks for quoting that post, I don’t normally read long posts, but that is a good one :slightly_smiling_face:

97

Not showing the current rank of your opponent is shady and gives the perception of unfairness. A terrible decision by HS to remove the rank of your opponent in matches.

98

I just don’t understand why people say the following…

“Why would anyone want to take advantage of the customer in order to make more money”

Have you BEEN to THE EARTH?

I won’t say this game is rigged but the “Blizzard WOULD NEVER!” is the single most garbage response against rigging and anyone who uses it is just completely ignorant and should go to my website “HundredDollarPencils. org” and buy a few pencils from me. Naive much?

99

I guess I missed the posts where people said that. I think if you read between the lines of the post you quoted, you’ll see she or he is saying that sneakily rigging the game isn’t a viable way of making more money.

100

I have literally never seen someone argue that Blizz is above such things. Of course they could do it but “could” doesn’t mean anything without proof.