Lol, like it barely happens to you… Tell me, what you can do about what I get a lot: from turn 1-9 I draw 7 6+ mana cards and 2 cards I can play before turn 6… Any kind of deck that’s only slightly aggro will take you out before the 10th turn
So how many 1 mana cards do you have in your deck? How many 2 mana? Etc.
If this happens every now and then, it’s bad luck. If it happens “a lot”, my guess is that your deck has insufficient early game cards.
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Build your deck in a way that included more less than 6 cost cards and less more than 6 cost cards. This will improve your odds of seeing lower cost draws.
And yes I have absolutely had games where i draw the entire top of my decks curve in the first few draws. But it’s an outlier and doesn’t happen that often.
Or, just admit that the dice really is biased? or the board is tilted? or there is some other thing affecting the result?
If both players believe(=feel) the game is broken maybe, just maybe, it really is ? (stay with me on this, more to come)
This happens if you dont take care of your car 
And if you neglect it - you’re asking for it. so you basically brought it upon yourself. I do agree with your ending statement about being at home
Someone (I really dont remember who) said once that we only notice those trains that are late. we never notice those that get to the destination on time because we EXPECT them to be on time. I think it is the same in games. we only pay attention to things that go wrong. This whole crazy RNG thing is just like that. The thing is, I am sure I would remember crazy GOOD things if they happened to me. The problem in HS is that I remember WAY too many times the RNG went against me then for me.
I’ll give you a short example from HotS (do you play it too?):
HotS is a 5x5 MOBA. When a player disconnects they are being replaced with an AI until they return. It is a very common occurrence in HotS to have a player (or more) disconnected. It happens almost every match. So we are getting used to it… (sadly). It is also a common knowledge that if you get an AI in your group - you are more likely to lose that match although the AI can be controlled by one of the remaining players. Do you want to guess how many times I have won a match with an AI in my team? exactly 2(!). yes. I remember each of them coz it is SO rare. on the other hand, I have lost countless games when I had an AI in my team. (I have played way too many HotS matches… something well into the thousands. )
How is this related? to show that even tho Blizz tries to say that having the AI is just like having a real player in the group - it really is not. And to show that when a massive amount of ppl claim something is wrong - it really is wrong, no matter you cant prove it. our claims are based on our experiences. In this case 2 wins out of infinite matches.
Let me present some SIMPLE explanation (*cough* Occam’s Razor) :
I would claim that you are correct in every statement you make.
BUT, your ORDER of statement is in the wrong way.
I would claim that the existence of the analyzing AI predates the Zephyr. This way I can explain (in a simple way) 2 other things: firstly , it explains HOW Zephyr was created (by reducing some of the AI’s capabilities) and then how the trouble related to Zephyr were created (banged up job at the reduction process). It also entails that blizz did not ignore any issues for the Analyzing AI to be developed. Adding YOUR staement that it is not impossible to develope, we come to one conclusion:
This “Analyzing AI” (AA) was a part of the master game design from the beginning. it just kept evolving to the point where the game designers tried to give some of its features to the players in the form of Zephyr. It wasnt a perfect process and thats how we got the hick-ups in the Zephyr.
Now we can understand the WHY:
To ensure the 50% winrate.
This idea could also help with understand the reasoning behind all the cards like Yog, his Box, Reno hero, and others. These cards help the AA in preforming its job of keeping the 50% winrate.
And to your next question : Why keep the 50% winrate?
So ppl keep on playing. If you play and always win - you will be bored and leave. if you keep losing - you lose hope of wining and guess what? right, leave. if you sometimes win and sometimes lose - you keep on playing coz you still have hope…
Why do Blizz want you to play? 2 reasons mainly:
- the more active players means more positive PR. more positive PR means Share price goes up==> YAY for blizz.
- the more active players means more players invest real money in the game==> YAY for Blizz…
OK, so you really never played the battlegrounds? isnt it exactly what they do with the new pass thing? but thats a whole other story for adiff thread
I would like to say I will do your challenge, but I am pretty sure I will not survive the grief of playing 50 games with a single deck.
I do think it would be interesting to test.
Interestingly, just the other day started a similar test in BGs, and these are the results I got so far (I would really like to hear your opinion on it):
Place: Points:
1 _ 101
1 _ 101
4 _ 17
4 _ 17
8 _ -102
6 _ -56
4 _ 32
7 _ -81
1 _ 101
3 _ 31
7 _ -67
6 _ -39
3 _ 45
6 _ -11
7 _ -68
2 _ 73
5 _ -11
7 _ -68
2 _ 74
6 _ -11
8 _ -95
2 _ 74
4 _ 2
5 _ -25
2 _ 74
4 _ 17
4 _ 3
6 _ -53
6 _ -26
Total gain in points: 49
Totla number of games: 29.
Total time: 29*~15min/game =~7hours…
My ranking at the end of the games ~5200.
I agree this is a small gain, BUT it also shows exactly what I was saying above, that Blizz makes it so we grind SLOWLY with just enough push to make us keep the hope that the next game will be better…
The fact is that after every time I got to first/second place, I could see how the choices I am being offered get worse while the other players got better. not even starting to talk about that one game where atleast 4 other players had 3-4 triples when I had none. Not talking about the fact that I saw some murlocs get to full posion/windfury/bubble when in all of my history playing BGs I only got that once. and even then I only got 2 of the three.
got a question on that.
can you explain how a matchmaking system that is based on mmr does not automatically ensure a 50% win rate for everyone except those at the bottom and top of the scale?
because if your claim is that they put resources into ensuring a 50% win rate, then the implication is that the system doesn’t do it automatically. and I can’t see how it wouldn’t do it automatically.
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normal distribution?
Are you sure that all the legend players have 96% winrate?
Or maybe, they too have approximate 50%winrate ?
something like this:
4% of the pop has 50.4320001% win rate and they are the legend?
4% of the pop has (1-^that)% and they are the most lowest and everyone else nicely fit in-between?
Also, lets not forget that the system can only manipulate the card draws and the opponent. it can not control which card will actually be played. So, even in the case one player gets a great hand and the other gets a terrible hand, if the first one makes bad decisions and the latter makes good ones - he could win, thus beating the AI. that what makes a player great - knowing what to play and when to play it.
I can assure you I have lost way too many games just for being a moron. I sometimes focus on killing some stupid minion when I actually have lethal …(not proud of this but it happens 
)
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I meant why do you think that a mmr system (that always pairs you against someone with similar results) doesn’t automatically guide most players towards a 50% win rate?
my point is that it’s not necessary to rig any aspect of the game if the goal is to guide players towards a 50% win rate because the mmr system (=matching players against similarly skilled players) does it naturally without intervention.
if you think that they rig the game to ensure a 50% win rate, you should explain why this intervention through rigging would be necessary to begin with.
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I gave up on this thread until about 4 posts ago lol
You could literally never win again and it would prove nothing.
Meati tweeted his WR for April and May. 55% and 59%. That’s for #13 and #2 legend. Let that sink in.
But what if they are not?
Real, fair dice do NOT roll one 1 every 6 rolls. They DO sometimes give a chain of 1’s. Or a long dry streak.
If you enter this discussion with the fixed idea that Blizzard rigged the game and nothing anybody says can change your mind, then you can stop reading now. If you are open to honest exchange of ideas and opinions, read on.
It increases the odds. Random breakdowns happen too.
You’re sidestepping my point.
Don’t play it. I’ve seen it, though. It’s Blizzard poor attempt to milk a formula by blatantly copying the gameplay idea of League of Legends and Dota.
I would not expect an AI to play at the same level as a real human player. It’s either insanely better (because of its insane reaction speed). Or worse (when the reaction speed is toned down and the limited creativity starts to show).
And when another player takes over, then the level will still be below par because that player now has to focus on two summoners / heroes / champions / whatever HotS calls them.
But it still beats the alternative. In League of Legends, if you disconnect your summoner just stops doing anything at all. “Just like a real player in the group” sounds like the typical overexaggerated nonsense that PR departments excel at spewing.
“infinite”
Really?
First: every game has one winner and one loser. Easy 50% winrate overall.
Second: The MMR and rank systems ensure that players that win more than 50% climb, until they meet better opponents. Those better opponents will then reduce their win rate, slowing their climb down. Until they are on par with their opponents, their win rate becomes 50% for the simple reason that they now face opponents of equal skill.
And if their skill ever declines, of if they get out of touch with the meta, they’ll start losing more then they win. Their rank decreases to the next threshold where they are stuck. Next season, they’ll get to a much lower rank where they now are facing their equals again.
Any system with promotion and relegation, or any equivalent mechanic, by itself gets individual competitors to an average 50% win rate. No complex and costly manipulation needed.
I know, I know, boring. Dirty conspiracy is a much more interesting and exciting idea. Sorry to disappoint. Occam’s razor doesn’t care about exciting.
I played it a lot until the last expansion. Then I lost interest. The pricing of the battle pass was one of the worst ideas I’ve ever seen from Blizzard and I seriously hope their sales are low enough to convince them never to do this again.
(…)
What I see is a reasonable average distribution of positions. I tallied your results, there were 3 top 1’s, 4 time 2, 2 times 3, 6 times 4, 2 times 5, 6 times 6, 4 times 7, and you were last 2 times. If you count top 4 as a win, you had 52% wins.
So I guess your current level of competence of the play is probably between 5000 and 5500 MMR. If you would reset to 4000 MMR now and continue to play, I’d expect to see a better win rate, and hence faster climb, for a few days … until you are back in the 5000-5500 range.
If you had posted 25% top 1 wins, 75% top 4, AND 49 point gain in 29 games, you have a point.
But based on 52% top 4, 48% 5-8, I think a small MMR gain is okay.
And yet, your first 1st place was immediately followed by another 1st place. That second 1st place was followed by a 4th (still considered a win). Your third and last 1st places was followed by a 3d.
You claim that second 1st place was achieved with worse cards than your opponents?
You recorded the scores, but did you also record the games?
Were you not only looking for bad cards after a win and good cards after a loss, but ALSO actively looking when you got good cards after win, or bad cards after a loss?
Honest question: what is your play strategy?
When I still played, I used to adapt to what I was offered.
But when I watch streamers, I sometimes see them abandon all they have and go for a full gamble. They often explain that as not wanting to go for a top 4, but wanting to take their odds on either 8th place or 1st place.
If a player is brave enough to ditch their board and go full murloc, then reroll hard for Megasaur, then they increase their chance to go out in 8th, but also increase their chance to get the highroll.
If a player stays safe (like I did), they’ll often get a top-4 but hardly ever finish first.
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Well, that’s a steep drop from the 96% you (?) posted before.
Also, I think these numbers firmly disprove the idiotic “forced 50%” nonsense some people insist on spewing.
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The RNG is definitely questionable.
Two questions off the top of my head.
- Why does dragonbane hit face like 90% of the time no matter how many minion are on board.
- The same question with wrathscale naga. I had a DM do 18 damage from this card with 6 minions on board. 6 attacks out of 6 hit face. Really ? DH was actually crushed until this.
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it also often a result of their chat spamming for a specific archetype/strategy
On how many recorded games was this statistic based? Can you link to the recordings?
How often? Out of how many observations?
Possible, but irrelevant to the point I was making.
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How many games did you have in mind? 2? 20? 200? 2000? Never winning again in 2000 games would prove nothing? Looks like you put 100% energy into you thinking you’re right because it is YOUR opinion and 0% effort into showing anybody other than yourself that you’re right.
I believe (notice I’m not stating this as fact) that it would prove something is amiss if I played 2000 games and didn’t win one.
From what I’m understanding of your last post, this is a competitive game that’s based on risk. Which means the players who are at the top got lucky to be there. That means if there were 100 players of equal skill in the top 100, it would be ranked as 1 being the most lucky to 100 being the least lucky of the 100.
If you think about the choice, you can play risky or play safe. Is there a real skill being used to make that choice? Sounds more like a preference. Which means once again that the game isn’t based on skill, but luck.
So it’s a glorified coin tossing game with art and effects.
Fun game Blizz.
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Calculated risk
And that single word invalidates the entire rest of your post.
And the choices they have are preferences. That means they would all see the same calculations. “Equal skill.” And risk is risk whether it’s calculated or not. Calculated is an adjective. Which is actually my whole point in saying equal skill because they would all calculate and see the same possible outcomes and choose the safe bet or the risky bet. And since you can’t see your opponent’s deck and what the cards are inside it, or even who your opponent will be until you find a match, that means you can’t skillfully prepare against someone as you are stuck with the deck you queued with. So it’s all just random and luck combined.
I guess that’s how games are though. It wouldn’t be a game if it was balanced. Otherwise a game would be a solid block of concrete we could all stare at, haha.
But my friend numbers or whatever is typing his response below so we can get back to how it’s rigged though, which I believe it is. They could easily get away with it. Especially when people like you justify it by stating that’s how random feels. We will never know by knowing how random feels because it’s always justified by the rolling 1 over and over CAN happen description that fits with random so their rigging will never be disproven by describing what random is. Pretty much any thing that happens in this game can fit the description of random. That’s why they would do it, too.
The best thing about our little debate here is that I am allowed to use the same methods and ideas that you use - against you
So, here is the first one:
So, in the spirit of your own words - is there really any way I can actually make you believe ? I mean other than an act of God (in this case: a full Blizzard announcement)
You see? this whole discussion appeared to me to be based on the BELIEF that each of us holds.
Yes, this a matter of belief. (Told you there is more to come )
Just like the “does God exists?” question.
Breakdowns are NEVER random. there is always a cause. if we had any real random breakdown to machinery we could have not put men on the moon (do we really have a proof of that? ) , or have any reliable air traffic. why? coz all the planes would RANDOMLY drop out of the sky…
This only looks like we are off-topic-ing. Its very much on topic. why? because it shows that a. your definition of random is problematic; and b. there are things we can not really have hard evidence/proof but we still accept them to be true, which makes them a belief. NOT knowing. Based on your previous posts here I suspect that you already knew all this but it needed to be said just in case before my next step. And so, after agreeing that there are things in life that we accept to be true even with out real evidence, but based on some beliefs that have been accepted by a large body of believers, I can add the “the game is rigged” claim to that pile of beliefs and ask for a proof from YOU to show me that it is not rigged. and how can you show me? let me examine the source code.
I now want to claim that MY assignment for you is much better than your.
Why? because I have actually given you a reachable goal that no-one can dispute.
Once we see the source code we can understand and know. That would be a real hard evidence.
You (and other non-rigged-rng supporters) trying to use the old “the proof is in the pudding” claim. I will not accept it since my experience (and many others) shows that the game is rigged.
WRONG!
It has been explained, by Blizz employee how the system works: it TRYS to do what you said. but! if after a few sec it fails - it will match you against someone of diff MMR, few more sec and then again - larger mmr gap. so you could be playing against worse or better players.
How do you define “better” here? skill? cost of deck? number of legendary? or could it be just a simple thing as the “luck” of drawing the right card at the right moment?
Would that sound to you like my imaginary Analyzing AI? (aka the Parent of the Zephyr)
Anyways, it is getting kinda late, and after reading your post again I realize that there is no way I can make you believe our claims.
Why? because you always take the EZ way of believing to those that have what to gain from hiding the truth.
You try to mask it but you failed in the very last part of your post .
So, I will go back to my suggestion from the beginning of this post: Get the source code, have it analyzed by an indipendant third-party and if they find no evidence of rigging - I will still be able to claim “hey, they simply didnt find it. this does not mean it is not there”. kinda like what you did in your post
The funny thing about your request to record all the games is that you can always say "hey this only shows in THIS recorded game. what about all the other games? of everyone in that day? in that week? and so on. sneaky but I noticed
Edit:
Dont you think there are way too many reported cases of players suspecting some fishy things for them to be imaginary?
Pretty much like the report about UFOs. They have been ignoring and dismissing those reports for years untill last year where NASA and the US navy both admitted to have evidence of UFOs…
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Hey, I just realized my post about the game being based only on luck and randomness isn’t really off topic because it would allow for Blizzard to completely mask whether the game is rigged. If skill was involved, then a highly skilled player could potentially realize it’s rigged and prove it and bring it to light. Just like Dave Hester of Storage Wars (who was not in on the rigging of course) noticed that the show was rigging storage lockers by placing things in there. He actually even won a lawsuit. THAT is skill.
This is common in games, too. Especially when currency and prizes are involved. I used to play a game at Chuck E Cheese. The one with the lights in a circle that when you stop the light on the winning light, it moves to the adjacent light after you’ve already pressed the stop button.