but I have no other way to explain how it is that wheneven I que with a slow deck I get to play against a super fast (4-turns- win) deck, and when I que with a fast stupid deck I get to play against super AoE decks that clear my board every other turn so Icant do any dmg.
Edit:
So I switched to a rez priest deck. now (in the last 2 hours) all I see are Kazzakus decks. mage/worlocks. not even one priest…
SURE THIS IS PURE coincidence…
For me its the cards. Way long time ago on the old forums and classic Hearthstone player asked,
“Is the RNG bias?”
And Ibelieve it is. Certain cards are ALWYAS there. Be it turn 1, 2, 3, 4. And more so if they are legends.
In a previous set you could bet your life you would see a Tarcreeper on 3 or a Stonehill Defender on 4. Heck if your a new player playing with the basics, you can bet to see Senjin Shield Masta on 4.
I just played vs a Demon Hunter
Turn 1 hero powers attacks
Turn 2 Equips Umberwing attacks summons 2 1/1s
Do I have th perfect counter for this? Nope. So guess who is going to lose. And lose fast.
Turn 3. Frozen Shadoweaver. Not only is a 4/3 for 3 cost but also freezes an ENEMY. Not just a minion. And enemy. And more face for the DH.
Turn 4. Relating to my opening statement. Bonewraith. Just like Tarcreeper or Stonehill Defender, you can rely on this card to be here.
Okay Great. So now there is a taunt reborn and he comes the face face face face.
Yeppers. Going to lose the this game and going to lose it fast. 1 2 3 rigging.
Turn 5 Demon Hunter attacks and plays Glaaiveborn deal 4 Damage. Wow, brutal 1 2 3 RNG rigging.
Turn 6 coins and plays the heavily reliable Priestess of Fury. Just to put triple exclamation points on the card rigging dealing system.
I have been fighting this feeling that the game is not rigged for a long time now.
But the more I play the more I am convinced that it is definitely rigged…
I never really tried to rank up to legend until this year. After being on a nice streak (note when I say streak, I’m talking about 3 games in a row not 7) I suddenly get matched up with a direct counter deck.
I just played a cheat priest with my quest warlock. I had this priest handily beat. Despite having the perfect removal for 10 turns plus I finally got him within lethal. Played Maly along with 2 dark souls. One was zero cost from my hero power. With 8 cards in hand I played my first dark soul…
Any guesses which card was “randomly” discarded? You guessed it, my other dark soul which would have been lethal…
Needless to say I was unable to finish him off. He healed himself back up and randomly was able to draw answers against whatever I had left.
No coincidence in my book…
Decided to play a modified Warlock Zoo deck, Splashed in some anti secret minions
I got a Mage as an Opponent
Whats a Mage?
QUEST RAID THE SKYWAY! Of Course. Here we go.
Well I can Flame Imp Coin play Sidekick and have a nice 3/4 on turn 1. Thats a really good play to start right?
Its my best play. Better than doing nothing. But I will bet you my life the Mage has Ray of Frost Twinspell in his opening hand.
Turn 2 the Mage casts RAY OF FROST! I am so so shocked! Now my is back to a 3/2
Next turn the Mage casts another shocking opening game spell. MAGIC TRICK!
I say to myself, I bet he discovers Ray of Frost.
The Mage casts RAY OF FROST TWINSPELL on my Flame Imp and now my nice strong opening 3/4 is removed
I play a Neferset Thrasher. The Mage plays SHOCKING! Frostbolt! So its just my 1/2 sidekick attacking with my Aggro deck.
Next turn the Mage has ANOTHER RAY OF FROST TWINSPELL! And another Frostbolt! Was there any doubt?
Next turn Mage plays a Secret and Frost Nova. Frozen Lockdown all minions since turn 1.
Next turn Mage plays FLAMESTRIKE. It is turn 7 after all.
Now there is no board.
Rebuild the board. Mage uses new Hero power discovers. BLIZZARD! Wow, I mean. Any Math Majors out there to calculate this perfect perfect perfect perfect cards in hand all in a row? Its almost as if the game is…RIGGED to do so!
But we are not finished with the rigging yet folks.
Time for AMAZING RENO ON 10! Perfect!
Now Deep Freeze, Power of Creation, Secrets. And the player on the other end won’t end the game because why would you when the game PLAYS THE GAME FOR YOU! Here, let me spoon-feed you every card you need to just destroy your opponent with no skill required!
And they wonder why I watch TV or read books (roping every second, every match) while patternstone does its thing while I do X for the daily quest.
I am really starting to hate this effing game. Same exact thing happened against Priest.
Had lethal, discarded my 2nd soulfire “randomly”.
gg…
Players who know how to properly mulligan can push the odds in there favor of having certain cards in there opening hand. There is some rng to this but good players know how to push that rng in there favor. Also building your deck in a way that all of your draws are good draws. Learn the meta and adapt to it. It is very predictable what certain classes are going to do on any given turn. Especially demon hunter being that they have fewer cards and almost no one has deviated from using almost full demon hunter class cards.
If you can “PUSH” the rng in your favor… how is it rng?
Also, how do you explain having 2 Savage roars in hand after drawing 13 cards?
even if we assume the deck has double copies of each card, the odds are still incredible.
Also, if there is any math-wiz reading this - can you show and explain how to calculate these odds please?
Also, how is it that when I play my warrior deck that has 7 cards that cost 6mana or more, I ALWAYS get atleast 2 of those cards in my opening hand? like every single game. And how is it even possible to return a card to the deck and then MAGICALLY draw the exact same one?
I think that if more of us share these stories , more will see they are not alone, and maybe Blizz will admit they are messing with the draws…
When you mulligan a card away you cannot get that card back immediately. However if you run TWO copies of said card of course you can sometimes the other copy of that card.
The best hearthstone players have higher wintates because they know how to manipulate that inherent RNG in there favor. Mulligan is just one of those methods.
Bro, get this: IF YOU CAN MANIPULATE IT - IT IS NOT RANDOM.
Actually you can. The deck is reshuffled and the same card can be on top again.
Depends on what you manipulate.
If you can manipulate the actual numbers rolled, then it’s not random. But the “pushing the RNG in your favor” that Sinthekiks mentions is (I assume) their way of saying that you can use in-game mechanism to increase your chance of a good outcome.
A Shaman facing a board with 3-health minions will almost always FIRST hero power and THEN cast Lightning Storm, because that gives them a 25% chance to guarantee a board clear with little down side (unless they need that 2 mana for something else, which might be why they sometimes don’t hero power first).
A player who plays aggressively for early board control will not put just three of four cheap cards in their deck, but have lots of 1-mana and 2-mana cards. When they have a good opening hand against you, it’s because half their deck are good opening hands. And because they routinely mulligan every card that costs 3 or more away.
Nobody plays Mind Control Tech when the opponent has four good minion and one crappy minion if they have a way to first kill off the crappy minion and guarantee at least the “least good” (and hopefully better) of the remaining four.
You can get the card you mulligan’ed away as your first draw. You should not be able to get it as a replacement in the mulligan phase. I’m pretty sure I once saw a Blizzard employee explain that mulligan FIRST draws replacement cards, THEN shuffles the refused cards back in the deck.
I will have to pay more attention to my HL mage. Though I’m pretty sure I’ve drawn polymorph again after the mulligan at the least.
There was a reddit discussion I read a couple days ago where Ben explained that when a card is “shuffled” into the deck it indeed reshuffles the order. Just not sure when
So for example, if you wanted to break a DH drawing the card they just added to the top with Sightless Watcher, you could shuffle a bomb into there deck etc…
edit: found this it won’t let me add the link. It’s an interview from IGN a few years ago.
IGN: And in your initial discussions you were talking about where the card you chose would go. Would it go to the top of your deck, would it be shuffled into your deck, would it go into your hand? How did you decide what was the right fit?
Ben: Mostly just through playtesting. We tried putting it on top of your deck or shuffling it into your deck. Turns out that putting it on top of your deck was a real problem [in combination with] anything that dealt with the ordering of the cards in your deck. So many of the cards shuffled your deck – Forgotten Torch shuffles the Roaring Torch into your deck and that ruined any kind of treasure that went to the top of your deck.
That is exactly what I am saying. No you can’t actually change rng, but you can make decisions that turn your 0% out into a 25% out etc. The lighting storm example is a good one. Always fish for spell power first, to increase your odds.
thanks for the explanation.
That is not manipulating. that is applied statistics …
The problem I and others like me have with that is that sometimes the randomness does not feel really random… (who said that? 
)
here is another example:
when I play my murlocs deck I usually get to play against Mages and Priests. yesterday I played for more than 5 hours (2+3 hrs chanks) and never saw even 1(!) druid deck. maybe 2 rogues. definitely no hunter decks. 2-3 warlocks. 2 Paladins. all the others were mages / priests/ shaman decks. does are decks that are supposed to be perfect counter coz of lots of aoe. luckily in most games I was able to end games on t6 or even before.
in so many games all I had in my hand were 2xdevolve, 2xtransfer all into murlocs, bloodlust. all cards that are useless if you have no minions on the board.
Like I said in my first post in the thread, when I play my slower decks that are heavy with big minions I get destroyed by T4-5. I only saw 1(!) warrior (pirates) in those 5 hours. when I play the big minions decks I get a pirates warrior like every third game…
There is something fishy going on with the RNG and matchmaking.
Think about it.
Risk management is a skill.
Therefore luck management is a skill.
Randomness never feels random.
Imagine a 2-player dice-based board game where rolling a 1 is a huge advantage. If a player doesn’t roll a 1 in six subsequent turns, he’ll say it feels rigged and not very random. If a player rolls two or more 1’s in six subsequent turns, their opponent will say it feels rigged and not very random.
So ironically, the only way to make all players happy and convince all players that it’s truly random would be to actually rig the dice and ensure exactly one 1 roll every six turns.
It’s true in real life too. Ever seen someone have their car break down and then shrug and comment “oh well, stuff happens”? Far more common is to exclaim “Why me? Why now? Why does this always happen exactly when I need to be somewhere?”
(Probably because when you don’t need to be somewhere, you’re at home and not driving the car … but that’s a realization people don’t have at that time).
Okay, let’s break this down. Let’s assume you are correct.
That means Blizzard built logic to analyse your deck (they can’t just look at the class, Galakrond Shaman e.g. has very different counters than Murloc Shaman or Highlander Quest Shaman), as well as the decks of all possible opponents. They prioritised that over visible issues such as compatibility issues with some devices and common complaints about Zephrys. They apparently (again, if we assume you are correct) managed to do this deck analysis better than the board analysis done by Zephrys.
And then they use this analysis to ensure that you get an unfairly bad matchup. Which of course also means that your opponent gets an unfairly favorable matchup.
None of the above is technically impossible. If one invests enough time, money, and resources, then this can be done.
But what I don’t understand is WHY they would do it. Have you ever done anything something so bad that a company like Blizzard would invest tens of thousands of dollars just to annoy you?
I mean, I would understand if it Blizzard built this and then advertised it, selling a “better matchup pass” for money and those who buy it get the better matches. I would not like it and I think Blizzard would in the long term lose out if they did, but then I would at least understand how a manager can get green light for a proposal to invest thousands of dollars, if the expectation is that it will generate a multiple of that in extra income.
But Blizzard are not advertising this. So even if you are correct, even if they did all the work to build the complex logic needed to influence matchmaking and give some players more favorable matches and other less favorable matches, they are not making money on it.
Ever heard of Occam’s Razor? Paraphrased: if there are multiple explanations possible, the simplest one is probably right.
People are notoriously bad at observation. Read up on observer bias and confirmation bias (wikipedia is a good place to start). The simpler explanation is that your observations are biased.
Put pen and paper next to your computer. Pick a deck, write down the class and archetype. Then play 50 matches with that deck. For EVERY match (no exceptions), write down date, time, and the opponent class. Add their archetype once your recognize it. (You don’t have to do this in a single session, just stop when you’re fed up and continue the next day).
After those 50 matches, switch to decks to a very different archetype, then play another 50 matches with that deck, again writing down all opponents.
(Don’t switch in between. I know, you are tempted to switch if you are constantly countered. So are all other players. And the smartest and best players are very good at predicting when the majority of players will switch and what to, so they will switch to the counter of your new deck right around the time when you switch to that new deck. That’s why you need to pre-determine when you switch, independent of the meta, for this experiment to produce relevant data).
Now look at the data collected. You will see a change in what decks you commonly encounter, as doing this might take a few days, or even weeks, and the meta changes in that time. But I predict that that change will have nothing to do with what deck you are playing, and everything with how the meta evolves.
I just started playing this game again after about 2 1/2 to 3 years of not playing. I even commented on another thread about someone complaining how the game is rigged. I said it’s probably just 50/50 no matter what and that you just have to enjoy the game and if you win or lose, it doesn’t matter.
Guess what now? I disagree with myself.
This game IS rigged. It’s just like Big Fish Casino. I proved it by playing 5 Arena runs in a row where I had 3 0-3s and 2 1-3s.
Is it possible that I could get THAT unlucky? I doubt it.
It’s because I returned to the game and didn’t spend any money. In Big Fish Casino, this happens a lot where whenever I win big after a very long losing streak, the game makes me lose it all in under 5 minutes. Because I’m not spending money.
The RNG of my cards has a smaller favor built into the arithmetic because I have not paid for card packs. Once again, this is arena so I can get the same value cards as my opponent. But I didn’t, because Blizzard only gives players who pay for their game better RNG. This is a scam. Blizzard is scamming us. If this post is censored it just proves me even more correct. I won 2 games out of 15 in arena. And supposedly the earlier matches are supposed to be against easier opponents. Well, not for me. Because I didn’t pay Blizzard.
Scam Artists. Blizzard is only good at art. That’s the only appreciation I have for them anymore. Now they are scamming people while using their wonderful art as a façade.
Anyone help me by explaining why I’m wrong? I’d love to be wrong.
Have you considered that, after 2 1/2 to 3 years of not playing, there are many new cards and new mechanics? That the meta (yes, Arena has a meta too) has shifted and changed? That cards that used to be good picks in the draft are now better avoided, and cards you used to avoid are now better?
In other words, have you considered that the results of your run are simply due to you not making the choices a more experienced player would make?
Yes, I did consider that. But even so, I pick 1 of 3 cards 30 times in a row. How could I choose the worst cards just because I haven’t played for a while? From a distance, what you say seems plausible. But to me, I’m still not convinced. I just don’t see the evidence included with your answer. It seems to only be circumstantial evidence you’re presenting. I still need the “fingerprint” from the scene of the crime to be able to accept what you’re saying as fact. I do see that you are inferring that those two things are connected (my 3 year absence and my choosing of cards = me losing). But I don’t see that you have connected it yet. Are the cards really that unbalanced that the majority of cards I chose are not good? I actually didn’t really see many cards I’m familiar with. I did choose a lot of newer cards. For me, the more evident thing existing here is my arena run results. 2 wins out of 15. And I did choose newer cards. If this is a result of me being ignorant of the power of the cards, how come I didn’t earn an at least average arena run, just once!? Although you may be right.
Of course not. I have not seen the cards you picked, not the cards you didn’t. I have not seen how you played your games.
The only facts I know are: you didn’t play for 2 1/2 years, then picked up the game again and lost most of your games.
You claim (without evidence) that this is because you didn’t spend money on the game. And you ask for help explaining why you are wrong.
I provide one possible explanation, with exactly the same amount of evidence as you gave for yours. If you want to reject that on lack of evidence, be my guest.