After buying 12 packs with saved Gold at launch of SOU and receiving an amazing jawdropping bonus of getting three legendary’s in one pack and another in the first pack I opened a day later . I decided that it was unlikely that I would be getting anymore from this set for a while . I decided to go back to opening ROS packs as I still wanted legendary cards from that set to make up viable decks . Also according to my records I had opened 14 packs already since seeing my last legendary card ( Barista Lynchen) and so this was the set most likely to provide my next legendary card. I keep an account of what I’ve opened usually but have mislaid my little book in the last couple of weeks so do not have the 100% accurate up to date figure of how many packs now opened in ROS since my last legendary. Although it’s not really needed in this case. What I do know is that since resuming opening ROS packs using all the gold from daily quests since two days into the SOU launch . It is somewhere in the region of 6 weeks , 45 days approx. I think it is fair to estimate opening a pack a day averaged out from daily quests. I have in that time opened a Classic legendary ( King Krush) and another SOU legendary ( Druid Quest) From giveaways and tavern brawls etc . I don’t know if this effects the rate at which I am likely to get another Legendary from the ROS set? . Or resets any timer used in one set when opening a legendary in another ? If not then I have opened at an accurate but for the sake of losing my written account presently a conservative estimate of 60 packs . It could be as many as 65 without a legendary card. What I want to find out is if this is a frequently found occurrence? If there does in fact exist some type of ‘pity timer’ and if so what it is set to ? .I just want to know if there is a possibility of one set being bugged in this way and most of all if it is worth me opening anymore ROS packs ? Or if I should just give up on that and concentrate on the current set ?
I am not saying I have been wronged or that anyone is to blame I just would like some information and answers regarding this issue . And if there is something a miss then the bug if that’s what it is, to just be fixed. Thanks in advance to anyone who can shed any light on this matter and I hope everyone is having a great time playing this expansion .
You get a legendary roughly every 20 packs (on average). There is an unconfirmed “pity timer” (it has been more or less proven with aggregate data at this point) that you will get a legendary every 40 packs from a given set.
So…if you’ve opened 16 RoS packs since your last RoS legendary you would need to open 24 more to be guaranteed another (though you will likely get one before this and reset the pity timer).
TLDR; the unconfirmed pity timer of 40 packs is on a per set basis.
Each set has a separate legendary pity timer, so opening legendaries from Classic and SoU shouldn’t affect your drop rates in RoS. The worst possible outcome is getting a legendary every 40 packs from a set - there is strong evidence that you cannot do worse than that.
An average legendary drop rate is 1 legendary every 20 packs (after the first one guaranteed in the first 10 packs)
There was a recent report by another player of a similar opening ratio (2 in 134 including the first leg of the expansion) and I remember there being a few reported last expansion, of going longer than 40 packs without opening a legendary.
You’ll notice the skepticism because even though not officially confirmed, a 1-in-40 pity timer for legendaries has not been disproven. Though it is entirely possible that the pack opening algorithim has changed since the community focused on pity timers, many people use software that track pack openings and there have been very few (maybe 1) reports with any proof of going longer than 1 in 40.
Here’s another post that includes references for currently held beliefs
Opening a ticket with CS couldn’t hurt. If CS acknowledges that you went 1-in-60+ and that this is very far off of the average (1/20) and the limit assumed by the community (1/40), they may investigate further. Since you don’t have any proof (understandably), CS would have to gather the proof if they can, and I don’t know if they will.
You already have some answers to your other questions, but I’ll just add this:
Apart from the unconfirmed pity timers, past openings have zero influence on future openings.
In other words, even if you open 10 SOU packs and get 50 golden legendaries from it, the 11th SOU pack would still give you a 5% chance of a legendary. That chance is not lowered by past good luck.
This is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy; the mistaken belief that the (high/low) frequency of an outcome has an effect on future results of a completely random* event.
*Pack openings are almost completely random, the only non-random factors are the Epic and Legendary pity timers.
I am sure they can, but other than the time of the mass compensation when the policy was implemented, I can’t immediately point to many examples where I’ve read it happening. There was a recent comment on reddit about a player being helped by CS because no legendary was given for the first 10 packs of an expansion (didn’t say which). But what level of effort that is, I don’t know.
Edbanger has set out his situation and concern very reasonably, and I hope that, coupled with knowledge of how abnormal his results are compared to Blizzard’s stated average and the unofficial pity timer will lead CS to agree that Blizzard would want to rectify this, if a ticket is opened.
I had already opened a ticket before posting here and it was on the advice of the Gm that I post here.
It was also stated that they had no visibility from there to be able to resolve this issue and that Hearthstone should pick it up If I indeed posted here. Which is confusing . I was under the impression that they would have access , if not themselves then to be able to report it up to those that have access to pretty much everything . On the reported subject this was added .
_‘Whenever a new expansion set is released, you are guaranteed to receive a Legendary card within your first 10 packs opened for that set, regardless of how the packs were obtained. Once you’ve received your first guaranteed Legendary, whether it came from your first, fifth, or tenth pack, further Legendary cards appear subject to their normal rarity so you can have long streaks of not getting any’.
As well as some information about the non duplicate rule on legendary cards and that Golden legendary are worth more.
As I’ve mentioned I’m not after saying that I couldn’t be wrong or that I’m demanding anything , it’s really not my thing. However I would like to know for myself but also for the community if this indeed means that I could open packs indefinitely without turning over a legendary card?
If this is the case I think it unfair to allow players to spend their resources on an ongoing basis under the assumption that they can rely on opening legendary cards from packs alone . I’ve been playing the game long enough to know this is far from the first time these issues or questions have arisen. Personally I think that a clear and transparent explanation for how this part of the game works could be issued in the rules and How to section. This would clear up a lot of confusion and probably save quite a few people time and consequential headaches on both sides of the interface.
I have reapplied my ticket outlining this as a general idea as well as asking if the evidence for my packs/cards ratio is contained within my game files and if so , whether i may ask for access to this .
I hope some other’s of you might comment on this as I am of the belief that this is something we all question from time to time and would like some clarity on.
Once again Blizzard I would like to assure you that my intent is in no way to stir up trouble , I might be wrong about my account and what’s happening and if so am More than willing to apologize for taking up your valuable time . I just genuinely believe that this is something we as players would really like to know.
Hope everyone’s having some good games and enjoying the current Meta.
Maybe this raises some questions, but can’t really confirm anything.
Someone here claims they opened 44 Uldum packs, and opening 4 packs on mobile affected when they opened their legendary:
There is a potentially definitive way to check. If you haven’t disenchanted or crafted many RoS cards (or you kept track), you count exactly how many RoS cards you have. If you don’t want to count manually, using HSreplay will make it easier. Subtract any individual cards and divide by 5. This gives you the number of packs you opened. Then you see how many legendaries you have got at this point.
Of course, it becomes very difficult to track this correctly as you open and craft/dust more cards: I gave up on counting this way a long time ago. But it still gives you a good approximation as individual cards pretty much only come from crafting, Arena and Ranked rewards or promo events.
I agree that the best way to approach this is to believe CS has the best of intentions to help. And that Blizzard giving a more comprehensive statement on what players can rely on when opening packs may be achieved in (baby) steps. I also believe that if a dev believed that a player could go 50 or 60 packs without opening a legendary, they would look into it. I don’t believe they want that to exist in the game.
From this, I would want to know the following
What dept/group has visibility to the pack opening results?
How do you contact that group so that you are guaranteed a response? It may be procedure for CS to direct you to post on the forums, but that shouldn’t mean they are powerless to also ask the right dept/group to respond to you. Telling you that another group “should” pick up your problem is maddening to me.
I see that you have requested pack/card ratios for you account. It would interesting to see where this leads. If CS was to say “they” don’t have the visibility that would be misleading, because Blizzard certainly does. See this Blizzard posted statement [http://hearthstone.blizzpro.com/2017/07/22/bug-pity-timers-were-accidentally-reset-fix-in-the-works/](http://hearthstone.blizzpro.com/2017/07/22/bug-pity-timers-were-accidentally-reset-fix-in-the-works/).
When CS says that they can’t resolve it for you - I wonder if they are only addressing that CS can’t give your account a legendary/1600 dust in this situation. Fair enough. But even an acknowledgement from the CS that 1 in 60+ is far outside the intended average by Blizzard, and therefore a very negative and unfair result for you would be a place to start – that pack openings did not work as intended for you. (baby steps)
It’s odd that there have been 3 recent reports of the pity timer failing even after more than 60 packs. Having the pity timer go more than 40 is odd enough.
Last expac, a player posted to reddit that his tracking software recorded him going more than 40 packs without a legendary. There were several replies that others had experienced the same, though for which expac is not always clear. https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/bdcma2/pity_timer_gm_response_does_not_exist/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x