The ROI on 20 Packs

Community Discussion
1

I’m just posting this here as a community service for folks who are seeking to get the most bang for their buck within the game’s systems. Particularly, this is for people who are primarily Free To Play who are wanting to get the most value for their in-game gold.

What this post does is lay out a typical Return on Investment (ROI) for 20 packs. Why 20 packs? Because the AVERAGE distribution of cards within 20 packs will typically drop at least 1 Legendary. So the ROI in this description is for the average … not for a below or above average return. This is a simplified approach, which is intended for people to use as a rough estimate rather than for specific calculations.

AVERAGE CONTENTS OF 20 PACKS

  • 100 total cards
  • 76 Commons
  • 18 Rares (assumes 4 packs in 20 have 2 Rares)
  • 5 Epics
  • 1 Legendary
  • TOTAL GOLD COST: 2,000

OK - so what is the return (ROI) you can expect from 2,000 gold in packs when you are just starting to get cards for a brand new set?

We will assume that for the first 20 packs, a player is getting zero duplicates. In reality (with all these estimates) a player will start getting more duplicates the further into each ‘band’ of 20 cards they open. But again, this is a simplified approach for general estimation and so we’ll assume the first 20 packs are virtually duplicate free.

ROI ON FIRST TWENTY PACKS

  • Commons: 3,040 dust value
  • Rares: 1,800 dust value
  • Epics: 2,000 dust value
  • Legendaries: 1,600 dust value
  • TOTAL DUST RETURN: 8,440
  • ROI: 4.22 to 1

This is the butter zone for people who are wanting to maximize their gold value. The ROI drops substantially once a player has obtained all the commons (which usually happens around 25 to 30 packs in).

Now we start assuming that roughly 1/3 of the Rares are duplicates (6 out of 18) and that 1 Epic out of 4 is a duplicate. Again, the further in you get the more this duplication would increase.

ROI ON TWENTY PACKS AFTER ALL COMMONS ARE OBTAINED

  • Commons: 380
  • Rares: 1,320
  • Epics: 1,700
  • Legendary: 1,600
  • TOTAL DUST RETURN: 5,000
  • ROI: 2.5 to 1

This is still a decent return for gold value. It compresses towards the end of the Rare spectrum though as you start to get more and more duplicates until (somewhere around 70-80 packs in) you have all the rares as well. The ROI drops again, and we start assuming 2 Epics are duplicates in every set of 20 packs.

ROI ON TWENTY PACKS AFTER ALL RARES ARE OBTAINED

  • Commons: 380
  • Rares: 360
  • Epics: 1,400
  • Legendary: 1,600
  • TOTAL DUST RETURN: 3,740
  • ROI: 1.87 to 1

This is still a positive ROI for packs, but it is becoming only a marginal return. Once a person has all the Epics, the ROI becomes fairly static…

ROI ON TWENTY PACKS AFTER ALL EPICS ARE OBTAINED

  • Non-Legendaries: 1,240
  • Legendaries: 1,600
  • TOTAL DUST RETURN: 2,840
  • ROI: 1.42 to 1

Again, this remains a positive ROI … but it’s pretty anemic compared to the initial 20 packs (almost 3X less).

And what happens if you happen to be unlucky in a set of 20 packs at this point and you don’t get a Legendary drop? Well, that’d be only 1,245 dust for 2,000 gold … or an ROI of 0.62.

So in summary for the TLDR crowd…

ROI ON 2,000 GOLD FOR TWENTY PACKS
ROI on the first 20 packs: 4.22 to 1 (8,440 in dust value)
ROI after you have all the Commons: 2.5 to 1 (5,000 in dust value)
ROI after you have all the Rares: 1.87 to 1 (3,740 in dust value)
ROI after you have all the Epics: 1.42 to 1 (2,840 in dust value)
ROI if you don’t get a Legendary drop: 0.61 to 1 (1,220 in dust value)

Now you know. And knowing is half the battle.

2 Likes
2

Note that due to the “No Duplicate Legendaries”-rule it is extremely unlikely that you’ll obtain a playset of all Epics from a set before obtaining all Legendaries.

3

This is true. Something to certainly keep in mind.

4

I appreciate such posts where alot of effort is putting to explain something.

However, I like to point out that there are a few things to note, to avoid confusing the reader.

example:
AVERAGE CONTENTS OF 20 PACKS

  • 100 total cards
  • 76 Commons
  • 18 Rares (assumes 4 packs in 20 have 2 Rares)
  • 5 Epics
  • 1 Legendary
  • TOTAL GOLD COST: 2,000

While widely acceptable as true, 1 main condition is that for the average to work, there must be X amount of packs to make the statement relevant.
For a player to just buy 20packs, one player could get the minimal of all 4common+1rare in all the packs while the other get much better ROI.
When we take into the whole player base, the average rule applies but to the individual it differs.
(*note: poster declaimer that follows)

The following assumption on ROI is more confusing for individuals due to the point I mentioned above.

As such, it might be simpler to project the worse case scenario and individual can work up from that. Then, from an individual standpoint, the concept maybe more easily understood.

5

The OP is a wall of text, so you might have missed this bit…

“This is a simplified approach, which is intended for people to use as a rough estimate rather than for specific calculations.”

So this was more of a rough-shuffle for average value. It’s a place for people to hold up a thumb and guesstimate. But, if you want, there’s certainly room to add different ROI tiers. For example - your suggested “Worst Case Scenario” ROI if a person only gets 4 Commons and 1 Rare in 20 packs … and (for added sting) they’re ALL duplicates.

WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR TWENTY PACKS:

  • 80 Commons (400 dust)
  • 20 Rares (400 dust)
  • ROI: 0.4 to 1 (800 dust for 2,000 gold)

Ouch. But what about a BEST case scenario where the guy opens 20 packs full of nothing but Golden Legendaries? Wow - it has a whopping ROI of 160 to 1 (320,000 dust for 2,000 gold)! If a person gets 80 Commons & 20 Rares that aren’t duplicates then it’s 5,200 dust for 2,000 gold (2.6 ROI).

But I find that such extremes are not particularly useful. It is very unlikely that a string of 20 packs is going to yield the Worst Case Scenario. It’s sometimes handy to know the absolute worst outcome you can possibly get, but such values are outliers and so using them as a baseline is not good practice.

6

I did note on your message as I stated you had a disclaimer follow up in your OP.

The reason why I suggested the Worse case scenario is that it sets the minimal expectation and players can work up from that.
Just like IRL budgeting, where if we wish to make an investment, the worse case scenario is the what most people start off with.

As such, it also forms a baseline where all players can have a discussion regardless of what scenario they falls in. (e.g. player with better ROI is a bonus)

1 Like
7

For a person who wants to know the bottom of the barrels then these would be the ROIs…

ABSOLUTE WORST ROIS FOR 20 PACKS

  1. 80 Commons, 20 Rares, All Duplicates: 0.4 to 1 (800 dust).
  2. 80 Common Duplicates, 10 Rare Duplicates, 10 Rares: 0.8 to 1 (1,600 dust)
  3. 80 Common Duplicates, 5 Rare Duplicates, 15 Rares: 1 to 1 (2,000 dust)

Option 1 describes a worst case for when a person has all the commons and rares but is still buying packs. Option 2 describes a bad result when a player has all the commons and is kind of mid-way towards getting the Rares. Option 3 describes a bad result when a player has all the commons and is just starting the trek towards finishing off the rares.

If a player wants to know what a terrible pack opening looks like? These would be it. But these scenarios are pretty unlikely. Possible? Yes. Plausible? No. But be aware it could happen, and these low-end outliers are more plausible than a high-end outlier.

8

Sorry, maybe just being nitpicking on the wording. :wink:

Only 80 Commons, 20 Rares, All Duplicates: 0.4 to 1 (800 dust) applies as worse case ROI for 20 packs. (*worth to note the guaranteed legendary excluded in the cal for new set)

Option 2, 3 and the average ROI cases, showcase the difference, as we better appreciate our own card opening results with references.

In summary, to understand and assess the value we get individually, and how we can better evaluate our spending. Credit to the OP thoughtfulness.

added (apology to OP as intention is not to derail his thought of presentation but to highlight the common pitfall of usage of average. e.g. 50%winrate of playing 2 games vs 200 games)

9

Here’s another ‘summary’ for those who don’t want to torture themselves…

ROI ON 2,000 GOLD FOR TWENTY PACKS

AVERAGE ROIS (Mix of Rarities)
ROI on the first 20 packs: 4.22 to 1 (8,440 dust)
ROI after you have all the Commons: 2.5 to 1 (5,000 dust)
ROI after you have all the Rares: 1.87 to 1 (3,740 dust)

BAD ROIS (80 Commons & 20 Rares Only)
ROI from 80 Common Duplicates, 10 Rare Duplicates, & 10 Rares: 0.8 to 1 (1,600 dust)
ROI from 80 Common & 20 Rare - all Duplicates: 0.4 to 1 (800 dust)

10

Your assuming dust and gold have the exact same value in your ROI formula, which is not the case to many people. You can’t use the dust to buy packs, and gold cant be used to create a card.

11

There’s no assumptions. What value a player places on gold vs. dust is left to themselves. The above information is simply a recitation of the numerical result in dust generated by the 20 packs. That’s a static figure. X cards are worth Y dust. That’s just how things are. Whatever emotional weight people apply after that is their own business. I deal in facts … not personal interpretations for ‘value’.

12

This is technically an impossible pull if all the packs are from the same expansion due to the pity timer on Epics being 10 packs, ie. 9 packs without an Epic from the same set means a guaranteed Epic in the next pack from that set.

13

Just looked into it more and you may have the wrong idea of what ROI is. Your doing a ratio of dust to gold value, while although helpful, is a bit different from ROI. Investopedia is a great source to learn more about the ROI formula.

14

Thank you! I appreciate these kind of posts.

15

ROI is “return on investment”, and measures the gain (or loss) against the amount of an investment. In this case the investment is the gold needed to buy 20 packs (2,000) and the return is the value of the cards that you receive from those packs (or the dust from disenchanting those cards). The investment could also be cash to buy 20 packs, but that’s a more complicated outlay.

1 Like
17

ROI = (Current Value of Investment - Cost of Investment) / Cost of Investment

If you didnt use the above formula then that’s not ROI but a different value. I cant include links, but if you look it up, that is the roi formula using investopedia.

18

That’s assuming you dust everything… Which is a terrible plan.