Why? I see it as honest to my experience. Is there a reason it is inappropriate?
The percentages have to change if you play 1 game.
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ok so I made a nonsensical statement, gotcha. But I trust you get my meaning.
playing face hunter I have seen 21% Druids.
Playing Ping mage I have faced 33% Druids.
And this isnât a new thing. I have observed this sort of thing for years.
Iâll edit the sentence though.
Well easy enough to prove as I showed. If youâre motivated enough (probably takes about 10 min).
Anyway I need sleep, GL.
Omg I have that song stuck in my head now
Itâs a good one so Iâm not complaining, just sayin
Itâs about small samples, though.
I have played 36 total games with two different decks. One deck has seen 17% priests and one has only seen 12% priests. This proves something, right? Well, no it doesnât actually.
One deck, the 12% deck, has seen three of them and the 17% has seen two. Thatâs basically equal but the first deck has seen twice as many games. I can do a similar breakdown for all other classes showing it is within one or two for every class. Itâs just small samples are influenced more by each case.
Itâs why coincidence doesnât prove anything.
Edit: Those are real numbers from my deck tracker over the last two days, btw, not fake numbers.
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I do understand different percentages for different amounts of games played.
I just wish someone would do a direct comparison now whle Druid is so overplayed.
like 25 matches and 25 matches.
idk Iâm not a statistician, but I am interested in wha the outcome would be.
⌠Would you like me to?
Um⌠no, please.
20 characters
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What about Cartman pretending to be Scott Stapp covering Dust in The Wind?
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The core of this is the utter hubris of playing dozens of games and thinking theyâve taken a statistically significant sampling of the metagame. Itâs like thinking youâve mapped planet Earth because you took a three day trip to Tahiti. Ten million games of Hearthstone are recorded by HSR every week, which means if you played a thousand games youâd be looking at 1% of 1% of this weekâs recordings, much less the larger metagame itself.
You canât measure something so large by yourself. Period. The meta is too big and you canât get the big picture without teamwork. No amount of playing games yourself will ever tell you a thing â by the time it would, meta will have changed on you.
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As I said, VS could go a long way to clearing some of this up by sharing some analysis.
Well you and Right agree on one thing. I look at it as if Taco Bell should come out with a line of more authentic chili verde stew burritos. I donât particularly dig stew burritos, so I wouldnât care. But it might be right up your alley, and it would be no skin off my nose.
I just donât stay up at night worried about whether Hearthstone is rigged. Iâm confident itâs not.
Then explain âhitting a wallâ
I was DESTROYING people with my Shadow Priest all the Way up to Platinum 1, needed 1 more star for Diamond.
I play mobile so I dont have stat trackers but I did get the 12 wins in a row ach. w/ this deck. I would guess around 60% win rate. Havent done this well in a LONG LONG time.
Platinum 1, lose 3, win one, lose 4, win 1, lose 4, and so on, and have been facing completely different decks. Not saying rigged, I just want you to explain this âwallâ and the new opponents I am facing.
One win away from diamond 10 and the game gets 4X harder with the SAME DECK?
The winrate of Shadow Priest in Platinum is 51.52%, given the average skill level of players in Platinum. So your misunderstanding is thinking that the losses are abnormal and that completing a notoriously difficult achievement is normal (congratulations btw). No, you got something like one in 3000 lucky* to get that achievement in the first place, and losing about half your matches is completely normal (and based on what you posted alone youâre still up 14-11).
.* To be clear itâs one in 3000ish per loss that the next 12 games will be wins, so if you lose enough games you get lots and lots of rerolls. Basically if youâve played 6000 games of Standard since the achievement was created you probably will get it.
So youâre saying that the pool of opponents changed?
You people are SO vicious! You are such a monster that you canât even IMAGINE that I would have any skill! LMAO
Whatâs it called when someone canât give someone else credit or it might somehow reflect on them⌠I know theres a word for it.
LuckyâŚ
Itâs only luck when its someone else right? But if you did itâŚ
Based off your rank? Yes. When youâre on a star win streak, matchmaking works differently. You can research the details.
Based off your deck composition? No.
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So matchmaking can detect a star win streak and adjust your opponents. I wonder if it can detect your deck composition and adjust your opponents also⌠nahâŚ
Okay so in Arena leaderboards, the difference between the absolute #1 player and not even making the leaderboards is less than 7% winrate. So letâs say in arguendo that youâre really skilled, and instead of getting a 51.5% winrate with Shadow Priest like all the normies, you can get 58.5% against the same conditions. This is probably giving you more credit than you deserve, but hey, in arguendo.
Youâd still need to be 1 in 600 lucky. Which isnât as lucky, but itâs still pretty darn lucky.
You got lucky.
Great players donât get massive win streaks on the back of skill alone. They get them on the back of skill and luck. Itâs not like luck magically disappears just because you git gud.
My previous win streak was 7, years ago, so yes, when I hit 10, I was like cool, then 11, then 12 and then I won another and nothing. So really it was 13 but they donât show that.
It was skill and luck, I call it Sluck