To be respectful, statistics, probilities and law of large numbers are not intuitive at all.
It’s fair to assume the vast majority of humankind is very biased when it comes to those mathematic fields.
It’s complex, and when associated to our very feelings, very easy to get wrong.
What is bad about it, is that we’re faced to probabilities and statistics all day long so we think we understand something about it. So that kind of discussions is always … spicy.
I know it’s difficult, because I often like to be disrespectful with stupid people, but on that particular topic, we can’t say that someone that doesn’t understand that are stupid, really, we can’t.
When it comes to statistics, especially when the outcome affects us directly, we’re under the effect of many many biases :
- selective memory
- sampling bias
- gambler’s fallacy
And so much more.
It’s difficult, but we have to try to be patient with those kind of people and try to explain, because, it’s hard to grasp.