Is the game really rng?

Multiplayer Discussion
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Any games that have real money transactions track all possible means of justifying any defense of a lawsuit / law related stuff.
Aside the MAC, the IP is used to trass classes of IPs for the same reason mentioned above.Any cybersecurity expert knows what im talking about. But thats another topic.

The whole idea of the debate was if statistics from 3rd party sites are worth taking into consideration and the arguments that i brought up suggest that they are nothing but a fart in a hurricane ( yes i like that expression so i use it alot ).

I rest my case.

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The whole purpose of his miscalculated claim was to undermine the reliability of stats from sites like VS report, by using the daily active user statistic instead of a bi-weekly or monthly one, which is not possible to do that way

And even if it was true for real-time data on VS, there’s still the fact that I can open those data at any point in time and if I’ve played enough games that day, the stats will coincide pretty neatly with my tracker data, so the VS real-time data do, in fact, work

Hence, whatever he says is just a pointless theorizing at best and a bad-faith trolling at worst

1 Like
64

Damn dude, you are too dumb to understand whats going on.

Trackers like you that feed data into a site means that you have the same data as the site.
That means a circulary was created : User feeds data to site → Site posts data → User go and checks if the data is the same as his data → the circle continues.
Im sorry but at this point id rather talk to an ant, and the upside is that the ant might actually be more intelligent.

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No, it’s not another topic.

Again, you claimed that IP addresses would be used to count the maximum number of daily players. Any cyber security expert knows that this is silly because IP addresses are not globally unique, they are locally unique to the subnet under consideration. The closest thing to global uniqueness of IP addresses is at the highest level of subnetting, at the Internet backbone, but any cyber security expert would know that subnetting begins as soon as that packet gets off the backbone and touches a router, at which point DHCP likely takes over.

The only way for a company like Blizzard to know the IP address or MAC address of your personal device is to program the game client to ask nicely, at which point the local operating system can say whatever it wants to say, then have the game client send that response to the server. For MACs this makes little sense, because it’s possible to spoof MACs. For IP addresses, this makes literally zero sense. Devices are having their IP address changed constantly, and the number of duplicate IP addresses for personal devices would be in the thousands, even for a game with only a few million users.

No reputable Internet service provider will just let an outside entity map the internal IPs of their network. And no reputable ISP will just provide their users with routers that anyone to do the same from outside the customer’s private network.

I am actually holding back. You are pretending as if you are some cyber security expert when you literally don’t even know what DHCP is. Maybe when I mentioned it earlier you glanced at some Wikipedia article, but you haven’t considered its ramifications. I will not fully discuss said ramifications at this time. I want to save it in case you continue to humiliate yourself.

You really think that you can just BS your way past me here. You cannot.

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Moving the goalposts again - this is the first time you stated this argument so far, and it’s useless because my data make up only a tiny fraction of the data on the website (around 0,0004% of total live data), so it cannot possibly taint the data (you’ve said it yourself, such a sample size is way too low to be considered representative)

Let’s open up the VS Live report and take a look, shall we?

I opened it here:

https://www.vicioussyndicate.com/data-reaper-live-beta/

It says “Class frequency by ranks”

I take a look at legend rank, and the classes frequency in % will coincide with my own tracker data, even though my sample should be way too low to be representative.

Druid, for example, is played 27,97% of matchups on the VS Live, on my tracker data it’s 29/112 = 26%, so that’s 2% lower on my tracker data, probably because I’m not looking at top 500 only data, but whole legend data instead.

Warlock is played 11,54% in whole Legend. My tracker data show 11/112 games against Warlock, which maps to 11,6%.

You are clueless and spreading lies.

2 Likes
67

Oh the clueless staunch defenders of data have come out to play.
Since 1 of you is borderline insane and doesn’t understand concepts … ill be more detailed.
If users feed data to a site, that site cant have different data than the one it received, and thats a confirmation bias sustained by a circulary, All the users of that site have the same data, and if they check their data against the site it will be the same. If one is dumb enough not to understand what that means … well, my fault for getting into the pigsty.

Scrottie you my friend are so clueless, and heres why.
When 2 computers connect, at the handshake, info is traded, like ip, like MAC, and all of that is in the headers of the packets. Any company that does real money transactions is subjected to a number of threats … ransomware, data mining, and the list can go on forever.
Just because you write a wall of text without arguments doesn’t mean that you have any clue about what you’re talking about. Im not pretending to be anything, im saying things as they are.
You two being clueless has already been proven, nothing for me to do here.

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Saying that a sample size is “too low to be considered representative” is like saying that a meal has “too few calories to be filling.” What it’s actually doing is trying to turn a spectrum of measurement into a yes/no binary, which is indicative of black and white thinking.

No sample size of Hearthstone games is perfectly representative, unless you have data on literally 100% of games played. A sample size of 0 is not representative of anything. As sample size grows from zero, it becomes increasingly representative. That’s the best way to think of it.

A bigger sample size is always better than a smaller one. Which means: even a small sample size is better than nothing.

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Is a router a “computer” for the purposes of this description?

If the answer is yes, then this description is accurate. If it is not, then it isn’t.

If you had said “devices” instead of “computers,” well, then you’d be correct.

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No, that’s just more data

257,344 games on VS Live. 112 of those are mine, 0,0004%
There’s no confirmation bias.

Don’t you think 257,344 daily games are a sufficient sample size? No matter the sources of the data?

112 out of 257,344 is representative already, as shown. I don’t need any additional data to draw a conclusion.

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Okay let’s try a diagram. Very basic at first.

C1 → R1 → R2 → C2

Person at Computer 1 types 52.38.23.97 into their web browser. This is the internet backbone IP address for one of Blizzard’s web servers for this forum (they have multiple). I went direct IP because adding a DNS server would complicate the example. Packets containing a HTML request, the destination IP, and source IP are sent to Router 1, using its IP.

The packets are received at Router 1. Router 1 has assigned an IP address for Computer 1 to a MAC address for Computer 1. It notes the MAC of the device making the HTML request. It then forwards that request with its own IP but not the IP of Computer 1, along the internet backbone, according to a routing table. Furthermore, the IP of Router 1 changes; it uses one IP to talk to Computer 1 (which is easily changed), and a completely different IP to talk to the broader internet (not so easily changed). Routers creating their own private IP address configurations is called subnetting.

These packets are received at Router 2. Router 2 actually has a completely different IP address, as listed in the previous routing table, but the point is that all packets for 52.38.23.97 come through it, or another Blizzard router. The IP address is known to be for this forum, so it forwards the request to the web server, which does NOT have the same local IP address. It’s a completely different IP address, that you don’t get to know because network security.

The web server received the request, and sends webpage data, as well as the original request, in the opposite direction, first using the local IP address of Router 2, then the internet backbone IP of Router 1. Router 1 then remembers the MAC of the device that made the initial request, which may have changed during this process due to DHCP, and sends the packets to it.

The important takeaway is that every arrow in this diagram represents a completely different set of IP addresses, all of which can be configured in any way desired, and changed multiple times per day, with the sole exception of devices directly connected to the internet backbone. And even those can be changed, there’s just more bureaucracy involved.

And in reality it’s more like
C1→R1→R2→R3→R4→R5→R6→R7→C2
where R5 and R6 are connected to the backbone, R1 is your personal wifi, and R2-R5 are all owned by your ISP.

TL: DR; when you go to Network Settings on your personal computer and see an IP address, that address is only unique or meaningful until you get to your router, past which it is meaningless and no longer unique.

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Let’s return to the basics because those aren’t cleared yet. PenDragon: if you think that “the game will turn every class at 50% win rate”, go make a crappy deck of only neutral cards and come and tell us how it was the same win rate with a high quality netdeck.

1 Like
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The win or loss that neutral deck will be tallied in the global win / loss rate of the class, and it will be evened out after … its not about decks, its about classes.

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You imply that would happen to YOU as a player. It’s nonsense. Really do go play a crappy deck of neutral cards and compare its success to a high quality netdeck; sure you could lose on purpose on the good deck to make a point; but be honest.

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You do understand that without artificially generated win rates, the high probability decks would go into an insane win rate ? and with each increment the % would rise up to a cap that would make those decks the only ones played ? it’s a crescendo, or a hyperbole, venn diagram if you want to picture it like that.
No corporation would want that for their product. At this point its common sense.

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That’s not true, because in that scenario the winrate would be 50% for everyone, so people would naturally seek to find a counter to exploit too many of the same deck on the ladder.

There’s always a counter. If there isn’t, the game has failed.

But there always is a counter.

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What are you talking about. When you lose using a good deck it was usually another good deck that did it; there is an MMR system by design; the official job of the system to make you LOSE more the more you win.

I think you haven’t noticed how the game works yet on the basics and you create conspiracy theories to cover those basics.

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You guys need to stop dealing with absolutes.
If i said its 50% artificially generated it doesnt mean its always like that. They can tweak them whenever they want. They can do it by the day, by the hour, or it can be when a class goes too much downhill / uphill. Thats someones job at Blizzard, usually the Game designers.
Regardless, the only thing that matters if you want to win, is figuring out which class is in the dumps and that can be done by playing a few games with different decks even on casual.
Also, my personal experience tells me that the stats on 3rd party programs doesn’t apply to me.
And no, its not a conspiracy theory, it’s how the system works, and tbh, i don’t really care if you believe me or not, keep drinking the koolaid.

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That’s a bit of a projection. You accuse others of absoluteness, and without any evidence whatsoever you are absolute that “if you pick the worst class you will win more!”.

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What ? when did i ever say that ? whats wrong with you ?

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Did you not type this: