Is the game really rng?

Noted. Recretional player with more interest in theorizing than playing or advancing.

Just don’t whine the next time I use this quote to shut you down.

Your true colors showed, when you implied above “to be like you”.

You don’t have to reveal yourself again.

Their more in RNG in this then most CCG on the market today and blizzard keep push say it fun game design.

It is amazing how little the Mulligan is still talked about in CCG’s these days. An important skill (yes i said skill) that far too many do not understand.

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Not to you, they didn’t xD You got some sort of emotional daltonism. People with daltonism see all colors as black, for example, while you see all emotions as “anger/hostility”

The unique combinations of 30 cards are 1,073,741,823 possible results. Add discovers to those 30 cards and the number goes to zilions.
How many decks are there ? 10 ? 15 ? 20 ? 30 decks ?
Now, every player has its own experience and plays from 5-15 up to 100 ? (hardcore) games per day.
HS has like 15-20 k maximum players in standard.
If you compare the possible results with the number of games you will see that the available data from 3rd party programs which everyone has is like 0.001% or less
So, if you quantify on some level how good people are, you will see that the available to the public data doesnt mean anything, its just a very very small sample size.
The real data is only available at Blizzard.
So, those people that call upon data from 3rd party sites as argument should know that it means absolutely nothing, a fart in a hurricane.

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Oh and, due to the real data being insanely huge, i doubt Blizzard has too many employees reading hard data, they prolly do it only on macro level which explains the sad azz nerfs and the indiference towards the players.

Lool, couple of months ago, each server had 70-75k, up to 120k players in LEGEND

This statistic on reddit claims January had 225k legend players across all 3 servers

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/1ag82yi/254958_players_reached_legend_this_many_players/

God knows how many more are between bronze and Legend!

Wrong. Very far from the truth.

It’s orders of magnitude higher than you stated xD The stats are decent, but not to be blindly followed. Should be mixed with own experience and cross-checked with own tracker stats to quantify their representativeness

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You either dont know how to count, or dont want to, whichever it, i dont really care.
Online daily players for HS is around 70 k. If you doubt that gooogle HS player count live.
Now, from those 70 k, take out the bots, the BGs, and other modes, and its max 15-20 k playing standard.Next time try to use maths as argument not claims that are baseless.

Those are daily users, so your calculations, if right, only pertain to daily stats.

However, the other stats and tier lists are made on a bi-weekly or patch by patch basis, which makes the monthly stats much more applicable.

After all, for 225k people to reach legend, many, many games need to be played, across multiple days, and daily active users are none of our concern for that.

xD

Your take is wrong on so many levels, and I don’t even think your calculation for a daily matchup report is right, because the daily active user stats is an average, not maximum, statistic, so it’s undervalued, and the population of daily active user games is much lower as well, so the sample size is still much higher than you calculated.

Use brain next time. It doesn’t appear to be working, math, logic, or anything, really.

I rest my case. If you had any qualifications to give psychological diagnoses you would be doing malpractice because you would hand them over based on internet text for ego purposes.

In case it wasn’t clear (and I know it’s approximately impossible to make this clear to you): it would be malpractice because you would have no clue what you’re talking about the subject.

You do understand that the 70 k is at any given moment ? also, its not physically possible to have at any given moment 225 k in legend, due to the fact that multiple people ( including streamers ) play on all 3 servers, but only on 1 server at any given moment.
That makes your claims false as hell.
My calculation are done for any given moment, not in a time period. Those possible results apply in any moment, not in a montly statistic or in a weekly.
Before you contradict something first check the premise and the conclusion, dont just spew stuff our of your azz.

Here’s a little disclaiming helper since i like to help people that don’t understand :
Daily users = maximum number of unique IP / MAC adresses that logged into Hearthstone in a 24 h period.
Also Daily users = median statistic of unique user numbers in 1 h being done for a 24 h period.

Now if you can’t differentiate or dont know what something means, do ask, and i will try to answer.

Your calculations are completely made up and you’re a tin-foiled hat

I rest my case.

Redditor obviously pulled data from https://hearthstone-decks.net/how-many-players-reach-legend-in-hearthstone/

Here are the most recent numbers:

Standard Wild Twist Total
NA 24270 6512 543 31325
EU 25500 6567 489 32556
Asia 68954 10102 1687 80743
All 118724 23181 2719 144624
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Let’s call the Mulligan for what it is, a high variance event leading to determining a significant part of the game.

There’s a very famous tournament game in MTG that lead to what is called the London Mulligan. Worth a read or view on YouTube if you are interested.

Mulligan’s are the one part of a TCG where the pilot has significantly more control over RNG for a brief moment in time, but even so it can go badly, spectacularly so.

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I literally googled “active players Hearthstone” and the first result was https://activeplayer.io/hearthstone/ telling me that Hearthstone has about 1.4 million daily players. 20 times what you’re claiming.

Although that would be whole app, therefore including players who only play Battlegrounds.

How to tell me you know nothing about network administration without telling me that you know nothing about network administration. How about you try learning about what subnetting and DHCP are, before you start telling people what’s what?

No, daily users is unique users for the entire day.

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I don’t know what you are smoking, both of you, but clearly not what you should. Clearly both of you are clueless about how statistics are done.

activeplayer. io/hearthstone/

Let me explain the difference :
Some users only log for a few minutes, some users log for a cople hours, some users log on multiple servers.
Each PC / mobile ( ways to play HS ) has an unique MAC adress ( ofcourse it can be changed but it takes work and nobody does that for HS only ). HS works with accounts.
So, whenever a different account logs in, it counts a new player to be tallied.
People having multiple accounts means the actual real number of players is much lower than the actual statistics.
Let’s take a 24 h period … at the time of this post there are 56 k people logged into HS, at the time of my previous post there were 70 k, and the other hours do have some number inbetween 56 and 70. If someone does a statistic of a 24 h including those 2 moments, that will be the median line for that day.
Now, both of you are clearly clueless since you dont know the difference between MAX users per day and median users per day.
Im just gonna state this since its more than obvious, the 3rd party statistics are a fart in a hurricane.

Oh i almost forgot :

There are about 56,739 people playing HearthStone right now on all platform it supports. Such as but not limited to mobile devices.

Scrottie if you’re gonna reply to my post again, do post how many active players are at the time of posting on that site … hopefully before you make an azz out of yourself by bringing cisco related things into consideration.

Heres a little tip : if 50 k players are online, in 12 hours, almost none of those players will be the same. Ofcourse there are some exceptions like hardcore players or streamers on 24 h streams but those are not even worth mentioning.
That means that the majority of the players changed. Those do tally up to MAX daily players but they dont tally up to the median daily users and the median line is somewhere between 50 and 70 k at any given moment.
The median line can show at any given moment how many players HS has active in a day.
And with the median line you can calculate the probabilities of decks / mulligans etc etc.
Any other calculations will return false results.
And thats why you need to learn statistics, it helps on daily tasks, even when arguing with people on HS forums.

If those things aren’t worth mentioning, then people having multiple accounts also isn’t worth mentioning.

It’s not that I don’t know the difference. It’s that

  1. the statistic “players per day” means the total number of unique users that logged in at any point during that day, and
  2. I do not care how many people are playing Hearthstone this instant, or this hour.
  3. To be honest, I don’t even care about how many players are playing Hearthstone this day, or any particular day.

But really just #1. My argument is an argument of semantics. Words mean things.

I recognize the concepts that you are discussing, even if I don’t particularly care about the corresponding statistics. What I do not recognize is labeling the concept of “average hourly active players on some particular day” as “daily active players.” That is not what “daily active players” means, and it is not what it has ever meant. To claim otherwise is a falsehood; to knowingly claim otherwise is a lie. And THAT — arguing in good faith — is something I do care about.

Hourly and daily active players will never be meaningful because, generally speaking, working adults and people getting education or training adhere to WEEKLY schedules. I would be a big fan of a statistic for total weekly players, where anyone who logged in once or more during that week would be counted exactly once. Unfortunately, the people who make active player stats don’t seem to fit the same way, so I’m stuck using monthly players. Monthly players is a slightly biased statistic, because some months have more Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays than other months, but this bias is relatively minor so I can live with it. This explains #2 and #3.

This is shifting the goalposts. You previously claimed that

Emphasis mine.

I am not disputing the uniqueness of MAC addresses; they are designed to be globally unique. I am disputing the uniqueness of IP addresses, with regards to personal devices connected to Hearthstone servers. IP addresses are designed to be locally unique, which means that they are not globally unique.

Furthermore, for reasons you’ve already recognized — the ability to spoof MAC addresses — I doubt that Blizzard tracks personal device MACs in any capacity. They could, but I don’t see why they would.

Edit: There are over 281 quadrillion possible MAC addresses. Enough to assign 30,000 to every human on the planet, with leftovers. Limiting Hearthstone connections to unique MACs is irrelevant to this discussion.