BSM might not get nerfed

Multiplayer Discussion
41

I said I wouldn’t do this, but I feel insulted. Congratulations, I am baited.

Let’s say someone says “I make $200k a year, I’m in the top 1%.” Such a person is making more money than average, but it’s just a plain old statistical fact that they are NOT in the top 1%. They’re just kinda barely in the top 10%. Better than me, no doubt, but performance follows a certain distribution and it would probably help if people understood that distribution. It’s not “bullying” to point this out.

I do routinely point out to people that they’re not these magical hotshots because they made Legend. This is based on VS report data from the end of recent months, data that shows that, among players with the tracker installed, about a third of them make Legend, and more than half end the month Diamond 5 or higher. That’s facts, that’s data.

But do I go around saying that Diamond players don’t count? No I don’t. Where do I think balance decisions should be focused? On the median long-term player, that 50th percentile, so Diamond 4-1. I’ve repeated this stance many times.

Personally, I’ve proven T1KL skills in past, I understand a bit how the knowledge trickles down over time, but I’m NOT the guy telling everyone that Diamond balance doesn’t matter and that we should only look to T1KL to make balance decisions. I only look to T1KL as a forecasting tool for D4-1, and the post you’re complaining about of mine is quite literally a rant about how even that is increasingly NOT the case because its utility in forecasting seems to be decreasing over time.

If you’re a struggling player, or if anyone reading this is, I don’t really care how good you are at piloting Hearthstone decks. If you’re below median, that’s cool. But if you’re going to get all upset about being called below median when you factually are, that’s on you. And if you think that the game should be balanced around you when your experience is far from the median experience, that’s selfish. Not trying to be mean, that’s just the way it is.

So in conclusion, I am not being narcissistic, I am not bullying, I am not elitist, and I’m only gaslighting you if you consider challenging self-serving perceptions with arguments from empirical evidence to be gaslighting.

1 Like
42

Whatever you are it’s a waste of time to mention ranks because it’s not even backed by stats that it’s a very relevant discussion in this context.

The deck has almost the same attributes whatever the rank. E.g. it’s extremely fast; as fast as pain lock; it’s an aggro in all ranks.

43

I agree completely. Just needed clarity:)

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44

I just figured the deck is extremely fast; and I mean almost as fast as pain lock’s 5min average game time; that’s the fastest deck in the game.

That means the deck behaves almost exclusively as aggro; it beats mid-range easily by default; it is controlled by slow decks by default.

Hence my initial assessment is partly wrong; it’s not a tyrant of combo decks while being a combo deck; but that also means that defending to it from mid-range is by default hard.

45

It seems like a kinda’ gimmick deck to play. That’s why I haven’t tried it.
well that, and trying to hit legend in Wild again.:slight_smile:

46

No, it doesn’t. The performance of every deck is dependent of the popularities of other decks that it is likely to be matched against. Because MMR is hidden from us, rank is our best approximation.

If there are two different rooms, one room that’s 20% rock 30% scissors 50% paper, and another that is 50% rock 20% scissors 30% paper, then your best paper/rock/scissors choice changes drastically depending on which room you’re competing against. It is not a case of “rock is basically the same: it’s hard, it’s heavy, and it’s strangely scared of the dark.” Decks often change tiers at different ranks.

47

Aggro beats Mid-Range
Mid-Range beats Control
Control beats Aggro

This is generally speaking, of course, but if you feel the deck is an aggro deck, then nothing is abnormal here.

If this is an aggro deck, it loses to other aggro decks and control decks. Thus, it’s the worst aggro deck out there. And thus, needs no nerfs.

1 Like
48

That’s why I said “almost”. But for most intends and purposes of this discussion it’s not important. E.g. the deck is extremely fast and hence aggro; that in turn means whatever the rank you won’t have it easy as combo/mid-range against that deck; you might have it easy only as a slow control deck against it or as an even faster deck (but that’s mainly painlocks and highrolling demon hunters apparently now (flood pala is dead in the water probably because it’s both slower but also its AOE is not enough to do much to the elementals)).

50

This is a huge thing about climbing, though. Something that really separates the climb through diamond.

Learning to play out your games all the way to lethal even when it can look bad early.

I suspect a number of people at lower ranks see a large early board and just throw up their hands and walk.

Play the whole game, folks.

Outside the fact that similar players tend to congregate at similar ranks for a reason… like, you know, suboptimal play?

Darnit, you can’t do that! It’s not fair for you to bring logic and facts to our feelings party!!!

1 Like
51

How about nerf druid it not having 16 manna.

52

3 Likes
53

Well, I feel like if the deck is being played by as many as players here have said, it will be nerfed.
And even though it’s not “my kind” of mage, I am thrilled that mage got it’s time in the Standard sun.

54

It’s not almost everything, it’s almost nothing.

https://www.hsguru.com/archetype/Big%20Spell%20Mage?rank=top_legend
Follow that HSguru link, look at Rogue, and then toggle it from Top 1K to All. Rogue loses almost 17% matchup winrate when we go from average skill for both players, to T1KL skill for both. (Edit: in reality it’s more like a 10% swing because of how winrate inflation works on HSguru data at low ranks, but that’s still a lot.)

Even specific deck vs deck matchups are dramatically different at different ranks. I don’t know why you just assume these things would be magically immune to skill differences. Why not ask the data first?

55

Now wait a sec …
What do you expect me to play thats totaly broken when they destroy Mage???
I need to fall back to a state of total lack of strategic planning, unlike you i refuse to play Paladin .

Nerf Druid damn crazy talk.

56

You can’t nerf Druid, Blizzard’s royal guard.

Because…

4 Likes
57

Please. “All” includes even Wild players goofing around with achievements. Even if you only do Diamond-Legend the differences start becoming small.

58

You need to come clean. Tell us the truth. You want to be able to still play Mage out of Druid. I see what you are doing there sir. :grin:

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59

So play cancer to beat cancer?

60

Yes. Welcome to current day Hearthstone.

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61

Most of the top decks and a few lower winrate decks that have unhealthy patterns need to get bumped down not killed.