One of the new HPS to go with Shadow or a Flavor of Time with correct stats for GoD?
Just wondering.
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LOL!
I’ve spent something like 5000 bounty matts on FoT in this season and I’m still using a non-ancient one! I hope the HPS does not take as many as that, in addition to the FoT!
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Haven’t kept up with the PTR. What is the preferred element for GoD/Hungering Arrow builds? I have an ancient FoT with cold/high cc and cd, but with only 6% cdr.
Going to go with HPS. FOTs drop like candy for me.
I probably just jinxed myself though!
That’s the one you want. I’ve got one just like it but am able to change the element. I got it this season and it’s Fire right now, but I’ll be rolling cold onto it when the patch drops.
I just blew another 1500 bounty mats on FoT, got a perfect primal one with Lightning Damage, CHC, CHD, CDR! … Does any build actually use lightning?
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I burnt through 30k forgotten souls on FoT on my barb, still dont have a decent one…its ridiculous
PTR, a usable Flavor was easier than a usable HPS.
I agree but both are a PITA to roll a good one. HPS should be know as High Probability Screwed. You can roll this a hundred times and not get what you want easily. Now you have the damage also to content with. 
And I’m the opposite.
I will mathematically calculate which is harder, but give me some time to collect the pertinent details (affix probability weights).
Update, this will be a lot harder than I thought since there are conflicting rolls on some items (e.g. only 1 skill may be present on a quiver). For data, I used the list of affixes found on the appropriate items and used this (possibly outdated) data mined distribution.
Holy Point Shot:
As an approximation, there are 16 skills that can appear on quivers, only 1 of which is Impale damage so this will be quite rare. Since the quiver coming with Impale damage naturally is very rare, it would be far easier to get a quiver with critical chance rolled randomly and then reroll the other primary (aside from dexterity or elemental damage) to Impale damage.
The probability of critical hit chance or Impale % appearing on a quiver is roughly 10/181, so getting a correct element is another 1/4 (assuming you choose the element based on amulet/bracers), lastly Ancient items are roughly 1/10. Thus the probability of an ancient Holy Point Shot with the correct rolls is about 1/724.
This does not factor in the roll values themselves. While 8% critical hit chance isn’t so bad compared to 10%, other values are more significant like attack speed, elemental damage, and of course the new secondary!
Flavor of Time:
Doing the same approach, getting a Flavor of Time with 3 of the 4 rolls desired (so that movement speed can be rerolled to the 4th one) is about 1/417. Thus the probability of an ancient Flavor of Time with the correct rolls is about 1/4170.
Again, this is just the probability of getting a Flavor of Time with the correct stats, not necessarily with good numbers!
So overall I believe, it will be harder to get a good Flavor of Time but the Holy Point Shot is quite difficult indeed too!
Edit: the numbers are off, I need to recheck these! See a later post for the clarification on the FoT rolls.
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Usually the best Flavor of Time is
- elemental damage
- Crit Damage,
- Crit Chance
- CDR
- socket.
- secondary being elemental resistance
optional Ancient, or Primal
Best Holy Point shot is
- elemental damage
- Dex
- Crit Chance
- Attack speed,
- Weapon Skill (impale ideal)
- Secondary Maximum Discipline
- 100% damage
optional Ancient, or Primal
I see both being non-ancient a lot of the times because hard to roll.
Honestly you shouldn’t worry so much about that. It seems that the majority of players consider that if you don’t have that item ancient you’re not good enough. Which is completely wrong you don’t really need an ancient version of those items to shine. Of course if they are ancient you’d have a bit more dps and bit more toughness because of augment but at the end of the day a non ancient is as playable as an ancient.
I usually don’t try to reroll much stuff on a new season I sit back and enjoy the ride the only things I do reroll are weapon and jewelry if I don’t get lucky.
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Haha this is too funny.
I’ve actually been working on some stuff with affix rolls.
Some relevant info: after 1000+ crafts on PTR (didn’t want to waste the mats on live servers), I’ve determined with pretty high certainty that primary affixes roll first. Probably not all that suprising, this is what I expected going in. But still necessary to know for direct calculation of affix combination probabilities.
This probably isn’t really relevant for quivers (no mutually exclusive primaries/secondaries?), but it will matter for amulets. LPH/LPK and all res/secondary res both roll on amulets, and are mutually exclusive. Although, since primary affixes roll first, it’s not that important, and it really only matters for secondaries (since depending on what primaries roll, some secondaries are excluded). If the affixed were all pooled and rolled at the same time, which was another possibility I considered, it would actually matter, since it would affect the relative affix probabilities.
Anyway, I considered three scenarios:
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roll for all affixes at once (pool both primary and secondary affixes, sample based on the affix weights from the datamine you found), once you hit 4 primaries or 2 secondaries, drop the rest from the pool and roll the remaining primaries/secondaries.
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roll 4 primaries first, then 2 secondaries.
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roll 2 secondaries first, then 4 primaries (this one seemed unlikely to be the case, but I checked for it anyway).
It’s possible they roll in some other weird way that I didn’t test, and that under certain situations would be consistent with what I saw, but logically, I think these three scenarios were the most likely possibilities.
I was using crafted level 70 yellow Templar Relics, since they have a small affix pool, and can roll both sets of mutually exclusive primaries/secondaries: LPH/LPK and all res/secondary res. The mutually exclusive primaries/secondaries are key for testing the order they roll in. Notably, Templar relics also only have three possible secondary affixes: LPK, secondary res, and monster kills grant XP. This is also important. They also only take a single inventory slot, so you can make 60 at once, which is convenient.
I pretty much immediately excluded scenario 3 (secondaries rolling first). Normally, level 70 yellow templar relics roll with 6 affixes (4/2). However, it’s possible to roll one with only 5 (4/1). This happens if it rolls with LPH+all res, then there’s only one possible secondary affix that can roll (monster kills grant XP). This could not happen if secondary stats rolled first, you’d always get 2 secondaries, you’d always have 6 total affixes, and you’d never be able to have both LPH and all res on the same templar relic (since at least one of lpk and secondary res would always roll). Since you can get LPH + all res relics with only 5 affixes, we know secondaries don’t roll first.
That still leaves the first two scenarios, either roll all affixes simultaneously, or roll only primary affixes first. I’m not going to share it here yet, but my data was strongly consistent with primary affixes rolling first. I’ll probably make a post about it in the next week or so once I get it organized. You’ll just have to take my word for it for now 
Also, for what it’s worth, the datamined affix weights still seem to be accurate. I wasn’t seeing any major inconsistencies. Granted, templar relics have a pretty small available affix pool, but I wasn’t seeing anything that didn’t fit. I would also say that anecdotally, the datamined weights do seem to make sense for what I see in game as more vs. less heavily weighted affixes too.
Part of my reason for doing this was to optimize rolling reduced level requirement at the start of the season, I needed to know the affix probabilities and how items are generated. And I guess just for interest as well 
(side note: rather than trying to calculate all the probabilities exactly, which change depending on which affixes roll and the order they roll in since that alters that relative weights of the remaining affixes, and can get complicated, I actually just wrote some functions to generate random items based on an input list of primary and secondary affixes and their weights, then made a million random items and checked to see what came out. Seemed like the easier approach)
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The damage roll on ancient quivers is significant enough to be required on a HPS.
I messed up my calculation in my earlier post, so I will show the work here to avoid mistakes!
Monte-Carlo simulations are indeed the easiest approach but I think this one was simple enough that it was still doable via a Markov chain at least for the FoT.
For FoT, you must get correct element, crit chance, crit damage, and a socket. You can only get 3 so that the 4th must be obtained by rerolling the movement speed to it. Since all 4 of those stats have the same weights 1000 out of the total 37500, it’s somewhat easy. The difficulty comes from the fact that only 1 element can roll on the amulet and thus changes the total weights when elemental damage rolls on it.
So to compute the probability, you need to consider 4 cases:
Case 1: Correct element rolls first, then two of: ChC/ChD/Socket
Case 2: One of ChC/ChD/Socket rolls first, then element, then ChC/ChD/Socket (what wasn’t rolled)
Case 3: Two of ChC/ChD/Socket rolls first two, then element last
Case 4: All three ChC/ChD/Socket rolls (no element)
*Note: cases 3 and 4 have the same probability since the total weights are only shifted for rolls that occur after the elemental damage.
The probabilities for each case are:
Case 1 (elem 1st): (1000/37500) * (3000/33500) * (2000/32500) = 1.469575e-4
Case 2 (elem 2nd): (3000/37500) * (1000/36500) * (2000/32500) = 1.348788e-4
Case 3 (elem 3rd): (3000/37500) * (2000/36500) * (1000/35500) = 1.234806e-4
Case 4 (no elem): (3000/37500) * (2000/36500) * (1000/35500) = 1.234806e-4
Total = 1.469575e-4 + 1.348788e-4 + 1.234806e-4 + 1.234806e-4 = 5.287975‬e-4
Which can be approximated as roughly 1 in 1891. To get an ancient on top of that would make it roughly 1 in 18911 which is extremely rare!
Can you try your simulation to see if you get a “good” FoT roughly once every 1890 amulets?
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NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDS!!!
Just kidding. But to be honest I don’t understand anything either of you wrote. That’s all on me, of course.
But yeah,
NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDS!!!
Edit:
On a side note:
Did either of you watch the movie “Hidden Figures”.
I did and I enjoyed it without being able to understand the majority of the math related content. I can only imagine that for people that have more applied mathematical skills and knowledge would enjoy it more.
I did, it was an amazing and inspiring true story showing the lengths women of color needed to go through to reach the inner workings of NASA. As an aside, “computers” back then were humans who did numerical calculations for a living. Since then, electronics have taken over all manual number crunching to the point the word “computer” now refers to the electronic version (not the human version)! The Fortran coding part of the movie was accurate too (punch card interface codes).
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Wouldn’t be 5 cases? I don’t see it Primal where you have the socket guaranteed.
Great work on this topic but could have made it easy on you…
I compute that the dh will not be in the meta again…the end.
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