After 12,000 Rolls, I rolled the Flavor of Time

General Discussion
12

???
of course not. that is also random (?). :man_facepalming:
and it’s not like you roll 1891 times and get “FoT with (cold, crit, crit, socket)”. hopefully nobody has to explain that it is absolutely mindless?
if it is actually a random and there are no cheated hidden functions, then you can even roll ETERNAL and still only get junk.

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13

Or…

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14

no. it’s called probabilities. go look up birthday dilemma, where q asks what is the lowest # of people to have a 50% chance someone in the room shares a birthday with you… the answer is much smaller than you think.

1891 rolls = almost 100k souls.

15

Just like you don’t always roll a 6 within 6 dice rolls, but it’s still a 1 in 6 chance. It’s called the Expected Value, and is part of the Law of Large Numbers, which describes the average likelihood of an outcome in a huge number of trials.

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16

This is why I asked if they are the correct probabilities. Not rolls!!!

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17

They are correct to the best of my knowledge based on the following assumptions:

  1. Each of the 3 random primary affixes are rolled in sequence (to prevent double element rolls etc.). Then given 3 of the 4 optimal affixes, movement speed is rerolled for the remaining affix.
  2. Amulets can roll primaries affixes according to this list of affixes found on items
  3. Each amulet affix has a different weight based on this data mined distribution
  4. The probability of primal ancient is assumed to 1 in 435 based on 10,000+ samples taken from botter data (the only good thing to come from botters).
  5. Primal ancient amulets have a guaranteed socket making the optimal affix combination more likely (but the chance of primal in the first place is low).

The probabilities were then calculated using Markov chains. Full details can be found in this post: So which do you think will be harder to get - #16 by Iria-1342

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18

This is a game of diminishing returns.

3 Likes
19

I get lucky on everything but FOT. Ahh well I only have 5 more GOD rolls to farm till I consider my WWrend build done. It has been a journey but I can finally see the end.
Unfortunately FOT will probably be the last piece.

20

it’s non season though, so how would you ever make use of it?

21

By playing a non-seasonal hero, obviously.

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22

That’s what I play!!! Non season. The only reason I have ever played season is for double bounties. I might play next season for rat runs but that is only because paragon farms will be so good.

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23

I’m glad that I hit the jackpot this season. :rofl:

24

I did that the first season FoT had the double pylon affix. Dropped off a guardian kill in a Nephalem rift. Albeit the thorns secondary is not that useful…

So how about the odds for a perfect FoT primaries AND secondaries? (Perfect secondaries would be ranged/melée damage reduction for a GoD DH, right?)
https://us.diablo3.com/en-us/profile/Zurtle-6510/hero/111226179

25

And i thought I’m patient. lol.

26

Had you done this whilst in a group, you would have cut the time and materials invested by about 1/3.

27

Here’s my philosophy on this: It’s good to know the probabilities, but don’t obsess over them. It’s okay to keep track of spent resources/reroll attempts, but don’t hark on them. If you need a certain item, just keep upgrading rares and reforging, you might find it eventually. But what else are you going to do with all those mats? You’re amassing a mountain of salvage material anyway, so get to work upgrading rares. It never makes sense to me when people have 50k+ of each material and sit there complaining about not getting the ancient pieces they want. The way I see it is kind of like resources in warcraft/starcraft games. If you have a lot saved up, you’re doing something wrong and you’re going to lose.

28

On the other hand legendary powers change so often which completely nullifies all previous grind and reforge. This makes me reluctant to mindlessly reforge everything and I just stick to sets (they autoupdate) and occasionally weapons

29

Guess how many mats I have to do to get this
https://ibb.co/HdySGLx ??

30

I’ll take a stab at it. It dropped like that?

31

Not a random drop, more like how many times I have to craft …