Hot damn!
That’s probably a 1 in 100,000 FoT. I’ll do the exact math tomorrow.
Sweet FoT!!!
I’ve spent 20K forgotten souls on FoT rerolls and I still don’t even have a trifecta… (I did roll a primal fire trifecta!.. it’s collecting dust)
I also don’t know how many blood shards I’ve spent on cirri’s (most of them for the last few weeks) and my best one is a dex/vit/AS/CHC/HA (non-ancient)… (I have rolled 4 primal Deadmans Legacies though!.. 3 were melted and the last one is collecting dust)
I need to collect some more bounty mats to do more FoT rerolls!
God damn. That’s just ridiculous!
I’ve also got a few trifecta of other elements in the process, none of them ancient though.
I also spent the majority of blood shards on quivers. I still need Deadman’s Legacy, Spines of Seething Hatred and Holy Point Shot to complete my primal quiver collection in season.
It just occurs to me that my useable primals for GoD are all slots that roll higher values, haha. Meanwhile, I still haven’t got any primal Yang’s or Dawn season or non-season.
Eh.
Mine has physical resist.
Yours is perfect! You can even reroll the elemental damage for use with any/all builds. Sweet!
Kadala says: What a steal.
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Following the same approach as in this thread: So which do you think will be harder to get - #16 by Iria-1342 I will use a Markov chain to compute the probability of a perfect primal Cold/ChC/ChD/Socket FoT.
The main difference in that math I used in that last thread is that a socket is 100% guaranteed and there are only 2 random primaries instead of 3 such that the probability is certainly higher, BUT getting the FoT to be primal in the first place kills that benefit!
Here are the preliminaries:
- A primal FoT rolls with socket and two random primaries which to be ideal must be 2 of ChC, ChD, and correct element (Cold for GoD DH).
- Each affix has a weight and the total weights for all possible primary affixes is 37500 (taken from this data). Since a socket is 100%, then it is removed from the pool so the weight total is 36500.
- The weights for ChC, ChD, and each element are 1000 each, but only one element may roll on an amulet (once the element roll appears, it removes the other elements from the pool). For example, if ChC rolls first, then subtract 1000 from the total remaining weight; but if Cold% rolls first, then subtract 4000 from the total remaining weight (since Physical, Fire, and Lightning were also removed).
Case 1: Correct element rolls first, then one of ChC or ChD
Case 2: One of ChC or ChD rolls first, then correct element
Case 3: Both ChC and ChD roll (element does not roll)
Note: cases 2 and 3 will have the same probability since the element roll (with its special rule) was the last affix rolled (or not present).
Case 1 (elem 1st): (1000/36500) * (2000/32500) = 0.0016859852
Case 2 (elem 2nd): (2000/36500) * (1000/35500) = 0.0015435076
Case 3 (no elem): (2000/36500) * (1000/35500) = 0.0015435076
Total = 0.0016859852 + 0.0015435076 + 0.0015435076 = 0.0047730004
Thus, if a FoT is primal it has about a 1 in 210 chance of being perfect (as it can get correct element, ChC, and ChD rolls with the natural socket and cooldown).
However, since a primal is about 1 in 500 of all legendaries then this number becomes 1 in 104,756 chance from any FoT! So my initial guess was VERY accurate!
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Is there any confirmed info on the actual drop rate of primals?
I don’t know if there is an official source but some players have compiled large data sets and found that the primal rate is somewhere around 0.2%. Of course, that doesn’t prove the rate is really 0.2% but it likely won’t be far from that number.
Edit: I saw some data compiled by some botters that showed with a sample size of about 10,000,000 legendaries, the primal count was around 0.23% or about 1 in 435. Using this data, it puts the perfect primal FoT at around 1 in 91,092 which is still close to the 1 in 100,000.
This data is probably the only good thing to come from botters.
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fot doesnt auto roll socket tho does it?
Only if it is primal. All primal rings and amulets always come with a socket with one exception: Obsidian Ring of the Zodiac (because all 4 primary rolls it comes with are fixed and not random).
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oooh never knew that, thanks
I actually never knew that either. Learn something new every day.
Unrelated fun fact: the bounty cache weapon Burst of Wrath always rolls socket, however its primal form removes the socket and leaves it with only three primary affixes. (I’m sure if it’s fixed or not)
Wow! That’s not easy to get!
I wonder what it would be if you wanted the perfect one: case 3 only (so you can reroll the elemental damage for any build) AND you also wanted the secondary affix to be physical resistance?
Niiiice. Pro intuition.
Thunderfury is another with the guaranteed socket. Can’t remember if it used to suffer from the same primal glitch, but for what it’s worth, someone in my clan found a primal Thunderfury and it had no socket and the correct number of primaries. So they may have fixed it.
Or I suppose they might have to fix it on an item by item basis instead of a global fix, in which case they may have forgotten Burst of Wrath. Guess I’ll have to run bounties until I find a primal one to know for sure.
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I have one on my Templar that rolls out with this NS toon
https://us.diablo3.com/en/profile/PMG-1510/hero/46685697
I am 99% certain it did not roll with socket
I still haven’t even SEEN a usable ancient one drop…but I did just get lucky with reforging a Primal Valla’s on first attempt (that day LOL)…
with the new double bounty buff might attempt the FoT again…if I can farm enough FS.
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