Well, okay, it’s like 6.98% or something. But otherwise, that’s exactly how percent chance works.
I’m happy that it’s been increased, otherwise I’d still not have it
Yea, I mean whatever money it takes to get extra increased chances at it. I just don’t think it’s worth the trouble. The mount isn’t very good looking anyway IMO.
The drop rate is still 1% you just have 7 times as many attempts. Thats not the same as the drop rate being 7%.
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I’m just so very tired of farming it at this point. After 1000+ attempts over a decade, what even is the point anymore? And yet, here I am, running 35 (and growing) characters every day though it, and then quitting for a month to decompress. It feels so much worse now, even though technically the drop rate is higher, because after that first kill of the day is done you get to weigh the pros/cons of even continuing to run. But as a collector, the cons don’t matter.
I hate that I change my entire playstyle and schedule during these two weeks. It’s not fun. It makes me not want to play the game at all anymore.
I also still don’t have the Manuscript, and I didn’t get Arfus (despite a similarly despair-inducing number of attempts).
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hahaha “greatly increase for you!..0.01%up”
Well, not literally but in practice it basically is the same.
Unless you believe that someone who does 1 attempt has the same chance to get something as someone who does 7 attempts. Obviously in each individual run the chance is 1%, but having 7 attempts at something of 1% gives you ~6.98% chance of the event occurring.
This is also breaking me. This is purely an issue of how much you are willing to take. At least running some older raids for mounts is somewhat fun.
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The probability of having seen a drop does increase with more attempts but its not a nice easy relationship like you state. If we use your relationship you would expect a 100% chance drop at 100 attempts which is not true.
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See, where I think you’re getting that number, would be if the 1% was just you. If the drop rate is 1% across thousands of characters, many of them could get it on their first try, and would use up the probability curve. If enough people get it in under 100 tries, you might never get it.
[edit: Sorry if we seem to be nitpicking. Me, personally, I just think the average is 1 in 100, 2 in 200, 3 in 300, 7 in 700, the higher you go, still = 1%]
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Yeah, it really is. Obviously it’s impossible to ever reach a literal 100% chance of anything chance based, but you can absolutely calculate how likely it is that you “should” have seen it.
Probability is obviously taught really poorly in schools - not having a go, it can be confusing.
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It’s okay, you’re not nitpicking, just confused.
There’s… honestly not much in your post that reflects reality. And I know that sounds nasty but I don’t actually mean it that way.
Like, you have Rarity right? If you look at the attempts number, it’ll give you a percentage. That is the chance that you should have seen the drop - it’ll never reach 100% because no random event can, but for example after say 1,000 attempts at a 1% event, you’ll have had a 99.9+% chance to have seen it. 999,999/1,000,000 people would have had it drop by then.
That’s why you almost NEVER see, like, 2000 attempts for Invincible because it’s so rare that it might as well not happen.
EDIT: I thiiiink you might be essentially agreeing with me, just the way you’re expressing it is a little bit, in my opinion, wonky xD Like, no one else’s attempts actually affect anyone else’s. Every event is unrelated in this context. I’m not 100% sure if you’re saying they ARE connected but, yeah, they aren’t.
so somebody should be fired because you didn’t get the mount you wanted? yeeeeeesh
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The formula is 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y ) or essentially 1 - (100-[mount percent])/100)^[your tries] - It’s the inverse of the chance of not getting it after n tries.
You are describing the relationship between attempts and probability of seeing the drop as a linear relationship. Where twice as many attempts means twice the probability. But the actual underlying math is a geometric distribution which looks more like e^-x where the probability exponentially decays never reaching 0.
I made a long post describing mount drops awhile ago if you’re interested.
I feel a lot of people in this thread need to toughen up.
I saw it drop for a friend last night, it exists!
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only first toon of the account have chance of 1% and the other toons go back to 0.03% chances. totally wrong calculation…
Obviously not always exactly twice the probability - but at the single digits, the relationship between number of attempts (at a 1% drop chance ofc) and the chance to see it drop are very close to 1-to-1.
Math isn’t my strong suit, but unless I’m reading that thread you posted incorrectly, we’re essentially agreeing. You’re just extrapolating my statement about a ~7% chance in 7 attempts to mean that I think there’d be a 90% chance in 90 attempts which isn’t true.
Obviously I’m only talking about the boosted attempts - read the entire thread rather than taking an individual post completely out of context lol.
I got it first run this year. Another guy in that party got it at the same time.