Of course you did. It only drops for people who have like 100 mounts it seems.
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This “higher chance kill” is honestly a scam.
Every single first box I open only has tokens.
Boxes on alts get Masks, Wastelings and roses a-plenty.
I havent even gotten the manuscript yet. Are you really making me farm two things from this event now? Way to add insult to injury.
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Ye I agree that more attempts = more better. But the relationship is more complicated than 7x more attempts is 7x more likely.
The way I calculate the probability (which is explained more in that thread) is to calculate the number of attempts at which 99% of mount farmers would have recieved a drop. That gives you a reasonable max number of attempts.
For a 1% drop thats 460.
You can also drop the % of players to a lower amount if you want to make the assumption that you wont be super unlucky.
90% is 260 attempts
80% is 160 attempts
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I did get the manuscript, and then was disappointed that it wasn’t the rocket. Also, whoever’s idea it was to make the fireworks look like the mount is a sick individual, and needs to rethink their life choices.
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@chimes @linxy 2 years since this post? Any updates on how this is going since we are in the middle of the event? Is it now “fun” even though no changes have been made to the alt grind?
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For all the people who did get this mount this year. Did you get it on the very first attempt of the event? A friend of mine is theorizing that the bonus is only getting applied to the first attempt of the event, and not the first attempt of the day. Can anyone confirm?
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Got it on the third attempt of the day, two days ago. So several days into the event.
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The vast majority of people I’ve spoken with that got it have gotten on their first try of the day, but it wasn’t exclusive with their first try of the event.
My one friend got it on the 10th day last year (just asked him) and my other friend got it the third day first try of the day. Both had attempts prior to the event that year. A bunch of other similar stories on a discord I frequent.
Most said it was their first try that day. Anecdotal evidence aside, I believe it’s not just the first try of the event.
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Okay good it’s not just me that thinks that. Also all the shoulders that can drop off Garrosh that aren’t the tusks. I hope those two step on wet carpet with dry socks.
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Certainly a diminishing return each day after the first attempt. Have been trying just 60X daily (down from around 110X daily in previous years). The fireworks item could be made more distinctive looking icon in the future imho, since the others were redesigned visually upgraded. It feels like a troll item drop. I’ve not gotten the mount/manuscript yet. Instance cap really is the largest hindrance, running is still a good 5-7 hours farm daily. I try to be efficient but not lock myself out. I don’t miss alt tabbing and trying more accounts/daily attempts. But keeping track of multiple accounts and instance caps (old WoD RAF accounts) wasn’t fun. The new items love charms make it somewhat less bad as I’m still able to get a mount and a toy for 270 at the end of this grind. While I could throw more subs at this I probably will just farm on my main maxed account x 60 and see. Statistically I know it’s not enough attempts but there is a QoL break even somewhere. I use to tutor stats and probability. There would be 2 calculations, the probability on the first attempt daily for the bnet and then the binomial pdf (if I recall) for the regular 1/3333 or whatever the actual value is for the normal drop rate on the remaining (in my case 59 attempts). Those would be added, but I assume even with the boost the overall rate is low. I have observed some 2023 love rockets (likely still farming the manuscript in my chemco runs this year).
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I… don’t know if you’re deliberately misunderstanding me or not.
I literally never said that there was a direct linear relationship between chance and attempts. However, like I said, at single digits it’s VERY close to a linear relationship, obviously decreasing as attempts climb. I was talking about the very specific number of 7 because that’s literally the amount of attempts that are left - which would result in like a 6.98% or so chance.
The numbers at the bottom of your post are it exactly. 260 attempts is 90%, not 260%. Then it gets closer to attempts = chance with 80% being 160, then close to 50% at 70 attempts, etc etc down to 6.98% at 7 attempts.
We’re literally saying the exact same thing, but you’re taking the fact that I said 7% chance when talking about 7 attempts and extrapolating that into me saying something that I wasn’t saying.
The whole instance limit wouldn’t be a problem if Reward Devs actually fixed the grind with a proper bad luck protection or something that turns this min-max alt / multiple account farm into a goal instead of a possibility.
Btw, thanks keep pushing for instance limit changes, since I do 55+ runs and I hit that 3 times, 44 characters in a single realm…that makes the grind a lot worse. It takes like 4-5 hours per day and I don’t want to play anything else in wow after this grind. I don’t get why Devs give this RNG treatment to Holidays.
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My problem is that its not true in general and someone could come across your original post and take the wrong conclusion.
0 for 14 again yesterday. Let’s see how today goes.
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As of yesterday, I have 280 attempts done and I haven’t seen it at all. It’s genuinely insulting at this point. I’m okay with having super rare mounts, but I’m not okay with virtually impossible odds while only getting one opportunity per year to get it.
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LOL
I’m sorry. Enjoy your future endeavors.
1/1 before reset. I know some people have done thousands of attempts and I wish you well. Good luck.
I had mine drop on Monday after fifteen years of chasing the mount. I am still looking at this thread to cheer people on and wanted to share (for those that didn’t see my earlier post) that my mount dropped on the third kill of the day for me.
The first kill may have a “greatly increased chance” but it does exist and drop after that. Brute force sucks but it will eventually happen.
I only ran those three kills yesterday and will return to my twenty per day as I now hunt the armor. Good luck to all and just keep grinding.
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To add, I think the instance lockout needs to be removed for holiday dungeons that have a incredibly short time inside compared to other dungeons. This only hurts the people trying to play Blizzard’s RNG game.
And I think the drop rate should be drastically increased. Then blizzard can make 10 color variations of the mounts and rotate through them, one per year to keep the people grinding. People will still grind for the other items like the manuscripts without feeling so unrewarded for their efforts.
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I have seen 2 people in my guild get their rocket. That’s quite the uptick from previous years, I had never even seen it drop for anyone.
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