I’m finding myself in much the same situation as the OP. There may be naysayers out there but there is at least one other who is seeing the same things you are. I haven’t put in the level of effort compiling data that you have, but in my experience alliance wins less than 10% of the time in the smaller battlegrounds. Epics are a bit more, around 25%. I admit those are guesses, the OP can probably provide more accurate numbers with the spreadsheet data.
I believe this is a problem, healthy battleground competition should result in an expected win rate somewhere in the vicinity of 50%. Most of my pvp experience was during the wolk and cata expansions, and I was always VERY impressed with the level of competitiveness in my battlegroup. If you check my stats they are probably still somewhere around 50% for most battlegrounds, largely driven by those numbers from years ago.
I don’t believe that the current situation is actually any better for horde than alliance. The losses are probably more frustrating when you’re expecting to win, and the wins less satisfying. Sure, advancing and getting gear is easier, but the experience isn’t as rewarding. If the situation could be evened out a bit, it seems like it would be better for all of us.
So what could be done? Well, I agree with an earlier poster who was against the idea of conquest points for losses. It sets a dangerous precedent. We’re trying to make things more competitive, not less. Off the top of my head I had a couple quick ideas.
Maybe increase conquest points from wins by a factor equal to the ‘win ratio imbalance’ from the week before. So let’s say that this week horde win twice as many battlegrounds as alliance. The following week alliance will receive double conquest points for their wins. If alliance only win 25%, next week the rewards will be multiplied times four. I don’t know if this would actually accomplish the goal of making battlegrounds more competitive, but it should help to alleviate the gear discrepancies documented by the OP.
Or how about making merc mode available to both the horde and alliance? I think the merc thing is a pretty cool idea, but it’s horrible to limit it to one faction. More choice is always better, and currently one faction has a choice but the other does not. If alliance could queue as horde, some would do it and others would not. This would likely increase horde queue times, which might result in more horde trying out merc mode also. Would it make things more competitive? I don’t know, but it’s worth a shot. Because the current situation isn’t much fun, and I also am trying to figure out if it’s even worth it to queue up these days.
Thanks for the effort you put in, OP. Cheers.