WARNING: Content of this thread has lore from prepatch of the BFA expansion leading all the way to possible the middle of Shadowlands. Content in this thread is quoted from the short story “A good War” here on the wow website as well as confirming specific plots with the leaks we have recieved in shadowlands.
By 8.3 with the truce the alliance and Horde agreed on it is seen that Tyrande refuses it and vows she will continue doing her thing till sylvanas is dead. Knowing this that she will be hostile to the Horde with the little forces she has left and no alliance backing Anduin will be forced into two choices. Back up his allies Tyrande Whisperwind and the night elves or remain netural and keep the peace that he tried so hard to achieve. Knowing Anduin its easy to forsee that he will choose peace and just pray to the light Tyrande wont do no bad. Now this was all sylvanas’s plan all along. While you ladies and gentleman were lead to believe that the war of thorns came out of no where and blizzard was being “stupid” they were developing a nice story that would surpass just this expansion.
Here are just some of the story from the short story: A good War
On that, you and I agree. “Do you have your mind made up, Warchief? Are you driving us to war? Despite the cost?”
“I see an opportunity. I need a plan to achieve it,” Sylvanas said.
“And if I cannot create a plan?”
“Then we do nothing, of course.”
“Then explain this ‘opportunity,’ Warchief,” he said. “Because I do not see it.”
“Yes, you do. You already said it,” she said. “Why is it impossible to invade Stormwind today?”
“We don’t have enough ships.” Saurfang looked at her suspiciously as he worked through the implications. How is that an opportunity? “We can commit our ships to transport or to war, but not to both—”
The answer slammed into him with such force that he literally staggered. His knees buckled, and he caught himself against the table with both arms. After a moment, he looked up at Sylvanas again, the blood draining from his face.
She had led him to a truth he had not seen, and it felt as if the entire world had changed. Only seconds ago, he had known to the very core of his being that war was impossible.
Now . . .
“You understand, yes?” Sylvanas asked quietly.
He said nothing. He couldn’t. He had been so focused on defending the Horde from the Legion that he had been blind to the consequences of that war.
There had been a stalemate, of sorts, between the Alliance and the Horde for years. Both sides were strong and had forces placed all around the world. No action could be taken without suffering a swift reprisal. That was why Varian Wrynn had decided not to crush the Horde after the Siege of Orgrimmar—he knew how many lives it would have cost his people to see it through. And, in hindsight, it would have meant the death of Azeroth, for it had taken the full strength of both the Horde and the Alliance to ensure the world’s survival.
But the Broken Shore had altered the balance, hadn’t it? The disastrous counterstrike against the Legion had destroyed a significant portion of both factions’ fleets, and the months of warfare that followed only made the problem worse. The Horde and the Alliance still had strong positions on every continent, but they now lacked the means to reinforce them or maneuver their troops to another front.
Until our navies are rebuilt, the high seas are wild again.
That would take years to change. And once that happened, yes, that stalemate would return, and war would become too costly to pursue.
And by all the spirits, Sylvanas was right, no matter how strongly Saurfang tried to deny it. War would come again one day, and if both factions were strong, that war would raze entire nations. How many different peoples on Azeroth would become extinct in that fight?
*But before then, both sides have vulnerabilities and a limited time to exploit them. For a price, we can survive.
“You believe we can secure Kalimdor,” he said. “The entire continent.” It wasn’t a question. The Alliance’s main strength was in the Eastern Kingdoms. The Horde’s was in Kalimdor.
Sylvanas inclined her head slightly. “Yes.”
Saurfang was already thinking it through. Where would the Horde need to strike? Mount Hyjal?
Azuremyst Isle? No—there was only one true center of Alliance military power, where forces were staged and could be projected to the rest of the continent. “Darnassus,” he breathed. “Teldrassil, the World Tree. Warchief, even if it is possible—”
“ Is it possible?” she said. “If we marched an army to Darkshore to take the World Tree, would the Alliance be able to stop us?”
No. Not if the attack caught them by surprise. Not if the Horde could avoid getting bogged down in Ashenvale . . .
“High Overlord,” Sylvanas pressed, “speak your mind. Is it possible?”
“It is possible,” Saurfang said slowly, “but not without serious consequences.”
“Indeed.”
“We would win one battle, not the war,” Saurfang said. “If we shift the balance of power, the Alliance will respond in kind. Our nations in the Eastern Kingdoms would be vulnerable to retaliation.”
“Especially mine,” Sylvanas said.
He was glad she had said it instead of him. What target would Greymane demand the Alliance attack but Sylvanas’s seat of power? “I do not know if we can protect the Undercity, not while the Alliance is united against us.”
“And what if they were not?” Sylvanas smiled again. “What if they were divided?”
Then the Horde wins. “How would that happen? If we launch a sneak attack on the night elves’ home, the entire Alliance will seek vengeance.”
“At first, yes. They will be furious, united against our aggression,” she said. “But what will the night elves want more than anything? They will demand that the Alliance help retake their conquered home.”
But the Alliance will not have the strength, not in Kalimdor, not with their fleets.
Again. She had done it again. She had opened his mind to a new possibility, and the world shifted under his feet. The strategic implications spun out before him like the Maelstrom. “It will take years before they can even consider retaking Darnassus.”
“You understand, High Overlord,” Sylvanas said. “Think it through. What happens next?”
“They might try to conquer the Undercity . . . but Darnassus becomes our hostage against that. The night elves will not allow your city to fall if they fear it means you will destroy theirs . The same goes for a strike against Silvermoon.” Saurfang’s thoughts raced. She’s right. This could work. “And even if the Alliance agrees to retake Darnassus . . . The Gilneans!”
Sylvanas’s eyes disappeared beneath the edge of her hood. “They lost their nation years ago. The Gilneans will be furious if the Alliance acts to help the kaldorei first,” she said. “The boy in Stormwind will have a political crisis on his hands. He is smart, but he is not experienced. What happens when Genn Greymane, Malfurion Stormrage, and Tyrande Whisperwind all demand differing actions? He is not a high king like his father. The respect the others give him is a courtesy, not an obligation. Anduin Wrynn will rapidly become a leader who cannot act. If the Alliance will not march as one, each nation will act in its own interest. Each army will return home to protect their lands from us.”
“And that is how you defeat Stormwind.” Saurfang was in awe. It was brilliant . Destroying the Alliance wouldn’t take a thousand victories. It would take one. With a single strategic push, the pressure on the Alliance would cripple them for years, just as long as they could not conjure any miracles on the battlefield. “You destroy the Alliance from within. Their military might counts for nothing if their members stand alone. Then we strike peace with the individual nations and carve them away from the Alliance, piece by piece.”
If you’re still here reading this you truely are interested and will be enlightened to this story. Now you may ask but they didn’t hold the tree hostage. Well further in this story for the tree to remain hostage alongside the night elves they would have to do something specific… the Horde would have to kill their hope to prevent any thought of rebelling while inside the tree. This plan to kill their hope was to either kill Malfurion Stormrage or Tyrande Whisperwind and since Tyrande went to sithilus Malfurion would be the only primary target.
That honor was bestold upon Saurfang who refused to do it (which was later reconned to elune preventing it) Now without that source of extinguished hope the only thing to do was to Destroy Teldrassil and incur the wrath of the remaining Night elves.
The wrath that prevents Tyrande from accepting the Peace armistice with the horde. The same wrath that will make her hostile to the Horde and the Horde will have to defend themselves and Kill Tyrande whisperwind. Either the Alliance joins in with Tyrande causing the Fifth war or anduin does nothing and keeps the peace. But now it shows that Anduin will sit back and watch his allies die if they don’t obey him, which shatters the trust the alliance has for each other. Genn already wants to aid the night elves for his wrath against sylvanas and the Horde.
And it shows in Shadowlands Tyrande whisperwind does indeed die. Which means the trust the alliance has in Anduin will be shattered thus killing the Alliance in the inside. Sylvana’s plan worked not as it was told but still worked never the less. Only time will tell how crippling this will become.
Thank you all for taking apart of your time and reading this thread. Love you all and hope you have a wonderful day.
TLDR: Sylvanas is a mastermind and the alliance is crippled cause the night elves are left for dead.
