Also that not only what you listed, but a wider variety of classes = faster gearing that they’re going to absolutely need.
In their situation stacking classes is detrimental to their need for gear once they hit cap.
That’s not even considering the problems they have with the whole lack of flasks, lack of potions, the whole professions fiasco that will be the situation because leveling and leveling professions and speed leveling and trying to gear at the same time for pre-raid…
All in 7 total actual days from launch to the total clearing of molten core…
Classes don’t all level at equal speeds. Sure, hunters and warlocks will be done quick, and mages and druids will be close behind, but warriors and priests will be at the back of the pack and may not even be able to hit 60 within a week. Good luck killing anything without tanks or healers, and forget about killing bosses.
Speed levelers practicing now are obviously taking into account private server differences when planning their routes. One shouldn’t assume that they foolishly think private servers are 100% perfect. Most of them don’t practice on large servers, but have their own personal testing realms where they can tweak and experiment with different variables, to account for all possibilities.
They practice on their own private servers? Guess they aren’t used to having competition, let alone launch competition. It’s still going to take about 10 levels (at the earliest) to get ahead of the initial wave and be on the bleeding edge of leveling. Anyone who isn’t able to break away from the pack very quickly will add at least several hours to their /played on their way to 60.
Let’s play devil’s advocate and pretend that no-one will be able to beat Joana’s time, but instead will be able to match it. 4 days and 20 hours is 116 hours. Divide that across a week and you get 16.5 hours a day. That would leave a hardcore speed-leveler with 7.5 hours a day for food and sleep… which isn’t going to be realistic. Speed-levelers will have less downtime than that. Heck, any working adult on this forum has had weeks where they’ve averaged 3 hours of sleep a night (like myself last week ). You can bet that a speed-leveler will be able to match that.
To keep the math simple, let’s say we take that 116 hours and factor instead 3.5 hours a night of food/sleep. That means that a Joana-pace leveler will reach lv.60 by the end of the 6th day of calendar time (with around 27 hours left until the week mark). Of course, this is all being incredibly pessimistic and assuming that no-one will be able to beat a decade-old record. Realistically, I expect to see many speed-levelers hitting lv.60 at the beginning of the 6th day.
So with 27 hours from cap to Rag kill, how many hours of prep time? Let’s be generous and say 24 hours of prep time, leaving 3 hours for an MC clear. This is when you get some people to farm HW rep, farm dungeons for gear, and do whatever you can to get consumables. Regardless of how the guild splits these responsibilities, there still isn’t time to catch up on sleep, so we’ll stick with your 3.5 hours. I’ll also go with the assumption that you will be able to meet all goals in this stretch of the race, including attunement for the entire raid.
If players hit lv.60 in 5-6 calendar days (6 being worst-case, 5 being what I expect), then Ragnaros will easily go down within 24 hours. Molten Core is easy. Very easy. It isn’t challenging in terms of gear requirements nor skill. 24 hours is more than enough time for those players to acquire the necessary consumables and bare minimum amount of gear, especially when they already planned what to get. The only tedious part will be the Hydraxian Waterlord reputation. However, no-one is going to be farming that reputation solo. Hardcore guilds will have a dedicated group of people starting that grind from maybe lv.55 and they will get that finished while the rest get consumes/gear. People will then down Molten Core shortly after. There will probably be a fair number of guilds prioritizing world-first Onyxia, and I’d imagine that they’d have Onyxia down before Molten Core.
It may not be difficult, but gear will be at the absolute minimum, and most of your raid will be in mostly greens. There will also be no high level consumables available anywhere aside from a handful of health and mana potions found in the last day or so of leveling and gearing. Then you have to get these severely undergeared and severely sleep deprived people to clear an entire raid in one go. Regardless of the ability of humans to function with little to no sleep, reaction time and decision making capabilities will be extremely impaired by this point. There will be wipes. This will be unavoidable given everyone’s mental state at this point.
Each of your points is based on the assumption of the previous point being correct, but any miscalculation at any one of those points causes the whole supposition to fall apart. Realistically, even if you get 60 people willing to do this (giving you spares to work with), there is no guarantee that all of them will be able to do it. You are literally talking about levels of poopsocking that have caused people to die. I bet less than half are able to keep up for the entire week.
Whatever those speed runs are, they weren’t done at launch of Classic. Which is going to be crazy. Just flat out nuts. Queues. Crashes. Shards. Who knows what else is going to get in the way.
The characters will have NO money, for anything. They’ll be lucky to be able to afford food. I somehow doubt the speed levelers are spending any time feeding the AH.
Anyone starting this will have what they think is a good plan, but none of the paths will have been tested (unless someone potentially gets in to a beta). As perfect as one hopes Classic 1.13 will be, we don’t know the imperfections.
You need 40 of these folks, and they all need to succeed. Which means you really need at least 50-60+ of these folks united to deal with the folks that drop out.
If you actually have 50-60 folks, then that means you have 50-60 folks all doing the SAME STUFF. You want to talk about spawns and crowded zones, this pack will be their own crowded zone. None of the quest areas are efficient with 50 people trying to farm them all at the same time.
Obviously they will spread out over time, but the gist is the same.
It doesn’t matter how fast the fastest guy is. What matters is how fast the slowest guy is. Raid Member #40.
You also need to make sure you have the right class mix survive Hell Week. And in the end, someone who runs with you folks, gets 3hrs of sleep a night for 6 days straight, and does everything you tell them to do – doesn’t get to go. They’re #41. “Thanks for coming though!” And they’re completely SOL on the event.
All of these are forces working against this endeavor.
First week i give maybe 1% chance of a kill happening. Second week id still say is only about 60-70% by 3rd week id be at 99%.
Week 1 issues: release day lag/log in issues. Player density. Obviously sharding helps with this but they havent said to what effect. Is it the 1-5? The first 6 racial zones? If its 1-5 areas that wont do enough to stop even speed levelers from getting caught in the croud.
You will need more then just hunters and warlocks level 60. You have to have healers and tanks (which almost all of which are slower to level) at 58+ and more then realistically 60.
Professions wont be leveled. People pushing super fast speed runs likely wont have access to flasks or best potions. Atleast not in bulk to make best attempts at raiding.
Gearing. Gearing 40 people to be semi ready for raiding mc means atleast 100ish fr on most players and another 100+ on tanks. This is just your fire resist gear. Tanks will need a defense cap set. You could easily be looking at 10+ runs of strat, ubrs, lbrs, and scholo for some of these geear pieces.
Finally the biggest issue. 40 people with 5+ days played within 7 days is just not going to happen. Especially with them being on the same faction and same server.
They wouldn’t have time to farm blues. Literally, they would be lucky to even have consumes. Imagine trying to hit 60 in less than 5 days played within a week, AND maxing out Alchemy? Maybe, if every one in guild took herbalism and fed all the herbs to one or two people who then maxed out herbing really fast.
You have to think these guys would be the first and only 60s on the server. There is no one else to craft anything for them. They would have to craft all BiS blues and all consumes(which is more important IMO) in house to have them for this hypothetical Rag kill.
Very True! I was just thinking , they could have a group of people on the Aquals and a group of people killing devils saurs while grinding in Ungoro. You could make some Devilsaurs really quick, no?
you spent some good time thinking about this but as someone who has been playing this game since day one, i guarantee you will NOT see MC or Onyxia downed within first week. Nobody is going to realize how weak they are in comparison to retail where you can solo almost everything.
A week? I doubt it. You wouldn’t have the normal gear yet, much less the FR gear. Or if by some unholy miracle you did, you would also be sliding into sleep deprivation caused hallucinations. But maybe that would help…
it’ll be tough, even tho people know the strats and all that jazz, the gear check might be a little bit too much for the first week, but maybe, i know people will push for it just for bragging rights.
That’s what I’ve been saying. Apparently on private servers this wasn’t the case. In MC in on official Vanilla, my hunter (furthest ranged class) needed 120FR just so Rags AOE blasts wouldn’t melt my face. Forget a pet, my cat gave me some additional DPS for like all of 30 seconds! Then he was dead.
Basically priest, and frost mage could get away with less resist due to shields. Everyone else just had to eat it. Normally with 120ish FR and a pot, you’d still take significant damage.
![:sweat_smile:](https://d38bqls1q93fod.cloudfront.net/en/wow/images/emoji/twitter/sweat_smile.png?v=6" ":sweat_smile:")
). You can bet that a speed-leveler will be able to match that.