I’m pretty confident the blue, an employee, knows how it works. It’s been asked repeatedly in the CS forum and every blue has the same response. When the dungeon/raid resets you have a fresh 1% (or whatever it is) chance at the mount. Every time. That’s why some people run a raid for a decade and never see the drop, the chance doesn’t multiply or compound, it’s the same % chance every single fresh run. You don’t have to like it, but that’s how it is.
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if you flip a coin 1000 times and get heads 1000 times you have probably entered some sort of worm hole and should consult a scientist, because the laws of nature may no longer apply to your reality
A blue post doesn’t determine how statistical mechanics works. The chance of the mount dropping each time is %1 but the expectation that it drops over a sample of x amount of attempts makes it more and more likely that you’ll see the drop the more you try. Like what the orc said. Also, I think this is what the blue is trying to say.
Invincible is a bit less than 1%. Shackled is the same way.
However, I have doubts too. The most I’ve seen proven on the Lich King before they got the mount was 900+.
Before the nerf, HOCS was 0.01% so yeah people having thousands of attempts on Sha was normal. Invincible’s drop rate is higher than that.
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I used to want Ashes because I thought it was such a gorgeous mount… until beta for Mists I think, and it was one of five mounts the level 90 premades had for testing.
I was so excited to even get to use it temporarily… until I mounted it, and it not only hurt my eyes due to the POV brightness, but it was also like a strobe effect that made me feel ill.
It made me so sad to learn I’d have to only enjoy it vicariously through other players. 
Good Luck and Good Hunting OP. I hope you get it so there will be one more player I can live vicariously through.
On my main, I’ve killed rag 100 times as of this week, which is roughly 2 years of kills for his flame bird mount
Still no mount
The drop rate was something crazy like 1/3333 before they nerfed it to 1%. So if they took 2k attempts before the change its actually not that suprising.
find the mount you are farming. look at it’s drop rate. divide 100% by that number. that will be the average number of expected tries it takes to get the mount.
a mount with a 1% drop rate, drops ON AVERAGE 1 time in 100 attempts.
if it took you 5 tries, you are “lucky”.
if it took you between 50 and 150 tries, you are likely having a typical experience.
if it took you more than 200 tries, you are “unlucky”.
the average player experience would be 100 attempts to get that one mount. i don’t think anyone knows what the distribution of attempts looks like. maybe not even blizz.
of course, that doesn’t tell you how many tries it will take you to get the mount, but it gives you an idea of what to expect. each attempt, in this example, has an independent 1% chance to drop.
I’m not a fan of of using the average to determine how long you can expect a mount farm to take. I typed up a comprehensive post a while back about using percentiles instead.
Farm it once a week
Well, first time I did that raid, Ashes dropped, I rolled I won. Was like a month or two old and people were offering me tons of money for it. I said no. And, now I have Ashes 
my guild was mad at me at the time. But a roll is a roll 
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I saw it drop once. I’ve also seen the love rocket drop twice. Not that it would drop for me
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I actually got that this year, after they buffed the initial daily drop. I’m still so gobsmacked by it, it’s still in my bags, I haven’t learned it yet.
I never “farmed” it though. I ran the event, but not with any regularity or serious hope of it dropping. When they said they’d bumped the drop rate this year, I decided I may as well do it once a day on Piddy here, and lady luck kicked my door in and dropped it on my living room rug.
i farmed alar for 6 months on 8 characters back in like 2016
I randomly got it back in WoD. It was the same for me I ran it on a few toons that year not expecting anything then got it. The holiday mount I did spend a lot of time farming was the headless horseman mount, I got that back in BFA iirc.
At least one.
Time-Lost Proto-Drake, 1 attempt. I wasn’t even farming it, it spawned in front of me while I was flying to Ulduar in hopes of getting Mimiron’s Head. Killed it then immediately had many angry emotes at me and whispers from horde players (on their alliance alts) with many expletives.
No Mimiron’s Head didn’t drop… I stopped counting after 500 tries.
I farmed that back in legion. I made the mistake of talking to the NPCs to get their help on Yogg. I had no idea that you had to do “alone in the dark” on each run to have a chance for the drop. That probably invalidated like 30 attempts or something =b
I’ve always been doing it without keeper assistance.
Really wish they just used the token system like FFXIV. If the mount does not drop then you get a token. Once you get 100 you can trade it in for the mount. And since you can only run raids once a WEEK I would LOVE for something like this. Would still take people at least two years if it never drops.