Tbh I don’t think anyone has gotten Midnight by killing the LK.
3 Likes
LOL. Yep, my bad.
Depends on your luck honestly.
It took me six months to get the Onxyian Drake and i have been trying to get Ashes of Alar for well over 5 years with nothing to show for it. Meanwhile i have heard of people getting mount drops on their first attempt (rare but still).
Currently on attempt 243 of G.M.O.D. 13 attempts per week.
1 Like
Took me over 2400 lich king kills to get invincible. Thats why I have a ton of alts. Ashes of Ala’r I was lucky, got it on the first try, same with Onyxia and Headless Horseman.
I’ll be dead before I get the Love Rocket, and a few of the more current mounts from the last couple of expansions probably.
My motto is just do it every lockout and youll get it eventually. If you wanna speed things up, start doing alt runs. It might take weeks, it might take years.
1% drop rates are fine IMO, anything below that is ridiculous, like pre-nerf MoP world boss mounts.
Or possibly more… normal guldan mount took me 600 damn attempts. I didn’t think it was ever gonna drop and wouldn’t have been surprised if it ended up taking 1000
4.6 / % chance to get item = 99% probability to obtain it in that many runs
0.69 / % chance = 50%
e.g if something is a 1% drop chance:
4.6 / 0.01 = 460 attempts for a 99% probability, 69 attempts for a 50% probability
Less than the pandarian world boss mounts
If it’s a 1% drop, every time you kill that boss you have a fresh 1% chance for it to drop. It doesn’t stack, there’s no bad luck protection, it’s not after X many attempts you will likely see it drop… it’s literally 1% each and every time you do it. It’s been said by blues many times.
2 Likes
It’s more complicated than that. You need to look at it statistically over the entire data set. There will be a probability distribution that lines up with what the other guy was saying.
Not really, as stated by this post
Headless Horseman Mount - Support / Customer Support - World of Warcraft Forums (blizzard.com)
If averaged out over several thousands and thousands of attempts, yes it’s possible, otherwise it’s literally a 1% drop rate every time. And the % you see listed is based off those thousands of attempts by hundreds of thousands of people, so it doesn’t really apply to one persons luck at it. However, people like to argue it because of how statistics work elsewhere.
The blue doesn’t understand it either. Farming a mount with a set x% drop rate can be applied to the principals of statistical mechanics.
Ashes was like 110 for me… the MONSTER was the sha of anger and mimron’s head, sha of anger… countless untill i got it, mimron’s head 1,284 runs…
Aint no way. Your odds of taking 2400 or more attempts on a 1% drop is more rare than winning the lottery.
1 Like
I messed around with scale factors like this. I wonder if there’s an exact solution? The way i found it was just simulating a bunch of farmers and seeing how much larger the 99th percentile was compared to the expected value. 1/drop rate
Like where does 4.6 really come from.
Believe it or not, it’s true. I even contacted Blizzard devs to see if my accounts were somehow glitched.
They politely told me I had terrible RNG for Invincible.
And yet some players were up to 2000 attempts on Sha.
1 Like
Like where does 4.6 really come from.
Logarithms. It asymptotes
1 Like
this is the truth, 1k is about the maximum amount of tries before you start getting into bizarro world if it really is a 1% drop chance