Quick question.
I’m wondering how many tries it takes to get a mount to drop. There are a bunch of mounts I want to get but for now lets just look at ashes of alar.
Anyone have a “best guess” for how many clears I would have to do?
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No, they don’t. RNG is RNG.
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It could drop your first run or your 700th run. Or somewhere inbetween. No one knows.
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Some say they got it first try, others claim they’ve run it over 1000 times and still don’t have it. Random is random and there is no bad luck protection.
Imagine a normal six sided die and you roll out each time you try. The reality is you don’t win until you get that die to land on a corner perfectly balanced. That’s about how long it takes. Or 4 es thanks to rng.
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OP if you figure it out, let me know. I still don’t have it. 
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Thats my guess.
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probably a bait thread but here you go
google djskal probability calculator
Took me about 4 months off and on, 1-3 toon each week. Friend of mine got it on their 2nd try. RNG gonna RNG 
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I feel like there has to be a point where its so unlikely to not have seen it drop that no one would need to run it that many times.
Like even if the drop chance is 1%, no one has ever needed 10,000 runs before they saw it.
Most raid mounts are a 1% drop rate but a few are in 0.5% range (Invincible, Shackled).
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at a 1% drop chance 1000 runs should give you a 99.95% chance… which means 5/1000 people have had to run it 1000 times or so
which in a game of millions of people is a lot. I’ve posted this before here but whatever.
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It’s statistically possible that someone has.
That’s just how statistics work. Obviously the more times you run it the higher chance that you’ll get it, but there’s still that unlucky s-o-b at the end of the bell curve that’s been at it for 15 years.
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Let me put it to you this way: I’ve been farming it on and off since it was able to be farmed and even ran it quite a lot when it was current content.
I still do not have it.
A friend new to the game who started a couple expansions ago ran it five times and got it.
RNG is RNG and it’s based off of that particular drop itself.
That’d be me. lol
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RIP lol
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I farmed tusks at the end of BFA, but I made like 20 death knights because I wasn’t taking any chances. If you casually farm something at 1% you deserve whatever happens.
Something people often forget is that there are 2 probabilities that affect each drop in isolation. There is the probability an item will drop (this doesn’t change). But then there is the probability an item will drop within a certain range of probabilities. It’s a little weird to get your head around but you can google this and there is legit math to back it up. Or if you’ve ever been to university and taken Statistics 101 you would have been taught this as well.
All this means is that the more tries you have at something, the more likely the probability of the item will roll its probability that it will drop. Remember, this is not the same as the probability that the item will drop in and of itself. I probably haven’t explained it very well but like I said, just google it. It’s why most people will get a 1% mount drop within a certain number of attempts and hence the bell curve exists. So for most 1% mount drops you will see the stats show it drops within 200-400 attempts. The probability of you not getting something to drop decreases the further along the bell curve you go.
Basically just try to follow the law of averages. Also download the Rarity addon.
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My best guess is 5. I didn’t do any calculations / estimations, though. I’m just a very optimistic person.
If you didn’t get it in 5 attempts, try another 5. Repeat until successful.
Could be anything, from 1 to 1000.
Took me ca. 15 solo trys to get Invincible. Ashes of Alar maybe 6 trys. Malygos drake first try. With Mimiron’s head I’m somewhere in the hundreds, same with Ragnaros mount and Dragon Soul NHC mount.