Here is some math for yall:
DC=DI/A∗100
- Where DC is the drop chance (%)
- DI is the number if times the item has dropped
- A is the number of attempts to get that item (i.e. number of times killing a monster)
So with this. A is the attempts, meaning that every evoker in the group killing him would be a kill… so I had 5 in my run. So that would be an average of 5 evokers kill sark for 8 weeks. 5x8=40 kills in the 8 week span. That is my A value. I am having the DI being 1, even though for me it would be zero. SOOOOO:
1/40 = .025
.025 x 100 = 2.5%
That was with being on the conservative side of 5 evokers in a group. Lets do 10. So now it will be 10 x 8 = 80
1/80 = .0125
.0125 x 100 = 1.25%
I picked 5 and 10 cause they are number popping up most in there.
From my math it is not a 5% drop chance like some people are claiming we are looking at 1.25% to 2.5%
Who knows what the real number is.
Blizzard. This is the best I can come up with my own personal experience with it.
This simplistic way of looking at it only holds true over an infinite, or some other statistically relevant sample size, number of attempts.
I will make this even simpler. There were 17 Evokers in the top for guild progress for M Sark, to Warcraftlogs. 5 of them have the weapon now. 8 weeks thus far. One attempt for each of them. 8 x 17 = 136 total attempts. 5 drops for sure on Mythic level. With the sample size of top ten. (5/136)x100 = 3.67% drop rate at Mythic level. Now thinking on what Bliz said about lower the easier difficulty. 2.5% for H and 1.25% for norm don’t seem that far off.
136 is not statistically relevant
8 weeks, times those 17 evokers? Each evoker has their own personal chance. One kill each week at Mythic level.
Because there isn’t enough of a sample size to dispel any notion that luck was heavily involved. Even if we assume the mythic drop chance was as high as 5%, there is only a ~37% chance to get at least 8 drops. If the drop chance was 3.75%, the probability of getting at least 8 drops to ~14%. 136 Just isn’t a high enough sample to attempt to guess an accurate drop chance.
Well agreed. But I am not going to go and find 1000 evokers and see if they have it or not
No, instead you’ll do a lot of “math” and come to a conclusion anyways.
Listen, its just an item and being conscious of it will just be self torture so just play and enjoy the game… you will get it in due time.
If those 5 evokers got it in week #1, then the rest of their attempts don’t count
So it would be 117 + 712 = 101 attempts for 5 drops.
Realistically they didn’t all get them week 1, but I’m just saying the real number of attempts would be lower.
Plus you don’t know if all of them killed mythic sark every week. Or killed any difficulty of sark every week.
I don’t know what the point of this post is. I’m just saying your numbers are relatively meaningless.
It is still a sample size. I mean like have you ever taken a math or like science class before? You aren’t doing thousands of variables. I am not saying this was set in stone, but with what information I am able to find. This is my best guess.
So you are going to cherry pick every possible outlier? I mean I wasn’t saying it was perfect, I do believe I said there is a lot of things we have to say may be true, and I said think a lot in there. Blizzard isn’t giving us anything. I explained my work. I mean we can go as far as to assume that this WHOLE 10.1.x will be about 33 weeks bring it to the end of Dec. I am fine with people trying to explain their work and view, but the formula isn’t perfect none of this. I am aware of that. This isn’t my job. It is a hobby
I am enjoying the game still. I am sure it will come. I think I have said it before in here. This more or less just being a little salty and believing there was a better way this was handled. Also hoping that blizzard sees all the post similar to this, but isn’t like… saying anything? We have just been given vague responses to a lot of things.
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They should just come out and say what the actual drop rate is. I wouldn’t be surprised if its way lower than expected.
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You don’t need it, but it sure as hell makes it easier.
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I think its also fine to just want it because it is a cool item and people like the flavor. That it is a 457 means it isn’t necessary, and an Evoker isn’t missing out on much by not getting it. It is nice to have. If you were not clearing 20s before, its fair to say that having this alone won’t make much of a difference.
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