Do you seriously believe people are going to need that long? I’m expecting a “compressed” timeline, shave a month off of Phase 2(3.5 months in Vanilla for NA), shave another one or two off of phase 3(4 months and 1 week in Vanilla). Because seriously, do you really think Blizzard is going to make the Power Gamers wait 7 months to get into BWL? I’d be surprised if it doesn’t open up by sometime in mid-late January. It being open by Christmas wouldn’t be shocking. But in “the Vanilla time line” it would be some time in March.
Phase 4’s content was alternately 2 or 3 months behind BWL, depending on which parts of it we’re discussing. I’d expect the 2 month timeline to be the one they go with. We’re now looking at being “3 months ahead of the Vanilla ‘schedule’” at this point, at a minimum, 6 months ahead of things is entirely possible. (Phase 4 as early as February, or as late as March, but in Vanilla, its equivalent would be May)
These things start to add up. Phase 4, AQ, with it event starting early in January to BWL opening in July. For a Vanilla timeline equivalence, this would AQ40’s opening event starting sometime in October of next year(likely coinciding with Blizzcon), but as they’re running anywhere from 3 to 6 months ahead of Vanilla by the start of Phase 3, it’s far more likely that AQ opening event will start at most 5 months after BWL opened, rather than the nearly 6 months we saw in Vanilla. I could see as early as 4 months.
Remember Blizzard’s devs interviewed commenting that it would be “paced at the rate that players ‘consume’ the content” and while I doubt they’ll be catering to the bleeding edge crowd, even the “average raid comp” is likely to plow through things at a faster clip than what happened in Vanilla. Between better tools, better computers, better internet, and hopefully much more stable servers, it simply won’t take as long.
So with a “window” on BWL ranging from Late December through Early February, AQ 5 months later would be placed in the June to August time frame, rather than October.
Naxx released in June 2006, 5 months and 3 weeks after AQ, no reason to expect it wouldn’t end up “compressed” as well. So that 1 year and 7 months between Vanilla Launching and Naxx releasing(March 2021) instead now becomes 1 year and 3 at the slowest(November 2020), and possibly right around the 1 year point if they really accelerate some parts of it.
Basically, expect people to be stepping into “Classic Naxx” sometime around October of next year, and don’t be shocked if it comes sooner.
Which would happen to match up with an October or November Blizz Con for 2020.