# Is the brutosaur still on the black market?

And this here is the flaw in the thinking.

Lets make up some math real fast. Let us say Mimrods head has a 5% chance of appearing. Lets say the bruto has a. 05% chance od appearing.

Of course Mimrods head will pop more. It has a much grearer chance.

The assumption based problems people are making IMO is nobody knows what those numbers are. Furrher, as was linked above each generation is and of itself completely independent from the previous iteration. There is no memory so to speak.

5 Likes

I’m of the opinion, seeing that this thread hasn’t been moved to Bug Reports or a Blue response saying “yes it’s being looked at” (they usually step in and do that). just shows me it’s working as intended. Ultra rare is Ultra rare. I still run SoO for the Dark Shaman set, still hasn’t dropped for me.

7 Likes

Gambler’s fallacy only cares about independent events without regard to previous outcomes or sequences. An independent coin flip of a fair coin will always have a 50% chance of landing on heads. The gambler’s fallacy occurs when someone believes that an event MUST occur.

But, over the sequence of (number of BMAH regions x items on BMAH each day x number of days), it becomes more and more likely that the Bruto would appear on its own. The LLN (Law of Large Numbers) is a much more applicable argument since we’re talking about outcomes that have occurred over the previous 5+ months. We are in “very, very, very, very unlikely” territory that the Bruto has not appeared simply due to probability, and that rightfully raises suspicion.

To put it in a better perspective, lets talk about 100 coin tosses.

The probability that the 90th coin flip, independent of all previous outcomes, will be a heads on a fair coin is .5. Gambler’s fallacy will have someone believing that the 91st coin flip outcome must be tails.

The probability that 90 coin flips in a row will not be tails is (.5^90). It’s not impossible, but it is very, very, unlikely and would raise suspicion as to whether the coin is fair, especially as flips continue.

That’s the argument many of us are making, but I’m going to emphasize yet again to everyone who has the same complaint that Bug Report submission, including in-game and on the forums, is the proper way to handle this. If any blue response is made here regarding a bug, consider it a one-off that is to not be expected.

I will not comment any further in this thread and am muting since it looks like it’s devolving into yet another “us vs. them” thread, which shouldn’t be the case on a forum where players are looking for direction and help from others.

2 Likes

I’d like to see your proof of this. Not that it hasn’t shown up on the BMAH, but that it has been truly and fully removed from the digital loot table. Not your conspiracy theories or Reddit thoughts. I want to see some sort of real proof from Blizzard that isn’t your salty take on it because your network of boosters and folks you have searching for you hasn’t turned up anything.

Because without that proof, you are only propagating this falsehood. Could it be a bug that it hasn’t come up? Sure. Could it be that RNG is just RNG? Far more likely.

Until you have proof from Blizzard that it was removed, whether mistakenly or on purpose, you best stick to the facts. Especially here of all places, on the highest moderated forum there is.

And while we’re at it, I’d also like the documentation to include the full loot table and recorded server/date to back this one up too. We like our facts 'round here. Not hyperbole.

9 Likes

It is possible that the Brutosaur is supposed to be rarer than other rare items. The fact it showed up as often as it did could have been the bug.

If the odds of it showing on the BMAH is 0.1% then there is a 99.9% chance that it will be something else (made up numbers used as an example.) The odds of it showing don’t change. Probability says that it likely should show, but statistically it not showing is not a definite sign of it being removed from the table.

It is possible that Blizzard lowered the odds of it showing on the BMAH and put it in the loot table for the unclaimed boxes so that any player had a chance at getting it, rather than just the players that max out gold.

6 Likes

There is no indication of that, no.

Outside of the Hotfix to add the mount as a very rare listing in the BMAH when it was originally removed from vendors as well as added as a possibility to the Unclaimed Black Market Containers, there have been no other changes that I can see.

If you believe there is a bug though, you’d want to post in the Bug Report forum.

12 Likes

Thank you, Vrak. Appreciate your info!

5 Likes

Thank you for the confirmation! The RNG has gone extremely unfavorably then!

2 Likes

In your stubborn haste to deny the Gambler’s Fallacy as linked, you just fully described…the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no “more and more likely”. The chance is the exact same, regardless of past outcomes. You are talking about probability, which is completely different and totally irrelevant to discussing loot tables in this game.

Yes, and you are stirring that by continuing to insist there is a bug when it’s been stated multiple times that there’s not one. It doesn’t help to propagate falsehoods, nor does it help to continue to give others an option that is ultimately futile.

As much as you may hate it, sometimes “working as intended” and “keep checking the BMAH” is the correct answer.

8 Likes

Unfortunately, I found myself back here since the blue post was linked in a different thread, so I’ll go ahead and address you one more time.

It’s clear you did not comprehend my explanation of LLN v. Gambler’s Fallacy, so I suggest you re-read it since I’m not going to explain yet again that it is likelihood over a sequence of events we are concerned about (fair vs unfair coin).

I do take offense to your following excerpt:

Since my guidance has been quite consistent with what Vrakthis stated afterwards:

Vrakthris is free to correct me if I’m wrong here (and I highly encourage being corrected by them), but CS blues do NOT have access to loot tables/BMAH rotations (we, the community, often call them ‘rotations’ although they’re effectively random loot tables still), and the lack of indication of removal appears to be based on documented notes only, without analysis of loot tables or code. Thus, the suggestion was made yet again (after I myself made the suggestion numerous times) to make posts in Bug Reports if we feel there’s a bug.

I don’t understand why there seems to be an axe to grind with me when my guidance (post it on bug reports) has been (indirectly) backed up by blue text; providing correct advice to others is not “propagating falsehoods” or giving “others an option that is ultimately futile”.

1 Like

I think it might be best to agree to disagree at this point. Each counterpoint is including language that is not really productive.

Correct. The only ones that would really have access to specific loot tables would be QA and the Development teams. However, when a change is made to the game there are processes that are generally followed that I do have access to. Such as hotfix and other update notifications. The previous statement made by Kalviery in August did include a direct check-in with the QA/Dev teams to confirm how it intended to work in the current state. There is no indication that the state has changed since that check-in.

Indeed. I am not a Game Developer or a Community Manager so if you do not trust the information I am providing the only alternative is really to report the matter as a bug to have our QA team take a look. QA will likely not be able to reply to the post itself, so there won’t be a means to receive a confirmation but if a bug is found it would likely show up in the Hotfix blog once addressed.

8 Likes

Thank you Vrak for the additional insight. And to be clear, it’s not that I don’t trust your ability to provide information you are aware of, but more of a “things break without anyone knowing (bugs)” line of thinking if that makes sense.

Thank you again for the additional feedback. Happy New Years!

Basically you are saying you got access to patch notes , like we all have and in the patch notes it doesn’t say that it got removed .
Theres documentation from several players and even a developer of one of the most used and popular addons in the game TSM regarding its disappearance the amount of passion people like us have invested in the game , constantly farming the gold waiting every day at server reset , checking servers , using every tool available has to mean something to you guys .

I agree you can only tell us what you know appreciate the post , we will keep on posting on bug reports until it gets checked because everything points out , there is a bug and it should be looked at , happy holidays.

That I can agree 100%. Bugs are funny things and pop up without any real rhyme or reason. Butterflies wing flaps in the amazon…

5 Likes

No, that isn’t what I’m saying at all. I have access to internal documentation that takes place when an aspect of the game is changed. The only updates there have been is when the mount was originally removed from the Vendor, when it was added to the BMAH, and when it was added to the Unclaimed Black Market Containers.

I’m sure that would be something our QA team would be interested in, which is why I recommended submitting a Bug Report.

9 Likes

I know you said you are not following anymore but i feel this is still pertinent to the coin flip you mentioned.

The fallacy is assuming each item has the same chance to generate.

The bruto mount may have a 1/100th of one percent chamce to be generated. Mimron could have a 5 percent chance, and so on and so forth. Emphasis on could. Obviously made up math to paint the picture

We simply dont know theae numbers, however. That being the case is why i do not believe it a bug.

This not an us vs them thing. Hopefully i have explained why i feel the way i do adequately enough to support my line of thought here

1 Like

It hasn’t appeared. That does not mean it has fully disappeared. So far as Vrak is showing, it has not been “shadow removed”. It is still on the loot table as a very rare mount that can pop up from time to time.

5 Likes

His point is that after long enough, it is more likely that the mount is gone, and it isn’t just a streak of bad luck with a very rare mount.

Of course we can’t know with a certainty. But if the mount used to be showing up ~2 times a month, and then suddenly hasn’t appeared in 5-6 months, the odds of it no longer dropping are pretty good. If those details are accurate, the odds of not seeing it for 5-6 months is probably 1 in a million give or take. Sure it could show up tomorrow and that was just an incredible streak of luck. Or maybe the data is wrong, and it’s been dropping unobserved, or doesn’t drop randomly or whatever. But it’s probably more likely to just not be dropping.

am i missing something? if it’s showing that it dropped less the 2 weeks ago, how is this “it’s been shadow removed altogether “?

1 Like

I think the point they were trying to make was that the ones showing on DFA could be from opening the Crates versus directly purchasing from the BMAH.

The point of contention that this thread is based on, is that the normal BMAH listing for the Bruto could possibly be glitched or shadow removed.

PLEASE NOTE: The above conjecture has not been proven.

1 Like