Gambler’s fallacy only cares about independent events without regard to previous outcomes or sequences. An independent coin flip of a fair coin will always have a 50% chance of landing on heads. The gambler’s fallacy occurs when someone believes that an event MUST occur.
But, over the sequence of (number of BMAH regions x items on BMAH each day x number of days), it becomes more and more likely that the Bruto would appear on its own. The LLN (Law of Large Numbers) is a much more applicable argument since we’re talking about outcomes that have occurred over the previous 5+ months. We are in “very, very, very, very unlikely” territory that the Bruto has not appeared simply due to probability, and that rightfully raises suspicion.
To put it in a better perspective, lets talk about 100 coin tosses.
The probability that the 90th coin flip, independent of all previous outcomes, will be a heads on a fair coin is .5. Gambler’s fallacy will have someone believing that the 91st coin flip outcome must be tails.
The probability that 90 coin flips in a row will not be tails is (.5^90). It’s not impossible, but it is very, very, unlikely and would raise suspicion as to whether the coin is fair, especially as flips continue.
That’s the argument many of us are making, but I’m going to emphasize yet again to everyone who has the same complaint that Bug Report submission, including in-game and on the forums, is the proper way to handle this. If any blue response is made here regarding a bug, consider it a one-off that is to not be expected.
I will not comment any further in this thread and am muting since it looks like it’s devolving into yet another “us vs. them” thread, which shouldn’t be the case on a forum where players are looking for direction and help from others.