Has been spotted 3~4 times in the brazilian servers, mounts can show up just a single time in 2 years per server, maybe even less, it’s random after all …
Blizz should increase the rate they show up though, they are becoming waaaayyyy to rare as the amount of items have increased a lot.
You’re entitled to your opinion. If you feel less than half an xpac warning is fine for a 5-million gold sink and isn’t FOMO, feel free to. I, as well as many others in the community, are entitled to feel the opposite. Opinions are opinions. Keep in mind it went away in October 2020, not November.
I most certainly will continue to encourage people to post to the bug report threads. After all, if we feel there’s a bug, that’s exactly what we’re supposed to do. Attempting to discourage anyone from utilizing the provided bug-reporting methods, especially posting to existing threads, is otherwise detrimental. Unless of course you just want people to continue making new threads everywhere about this, but I don’t think that’s the outcome you want.
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December 30 2021 can confirm its still not shown in bmah , yet super rare mounts like mimiron head have appeared including EVERY literally EVERY other item.
As far as i know unclaimed lootbox has the items that where not sold previously the day before hence called “unclaimed” so if there was no brutosaur in bmah how is it going to show up in the unclaimed loot box. better yet why do we allow and accept lootboxes in first place that basically gambling.
My understanding of the crate is that it’s just a random loot token with a fancy name on it. DFA is still tracking people obtaining the Bruto mount, with its most recent detection on December 18th (last scan itself was the 21st), so it appears people are still looting him via crates.
https://www.dataforazeroth.com/collections/mounts/1039/mighty-caravan-brutosaur
Of course, I’m with you that no bruto on the rotation feels like a bug, but our only “official” recourse is to submit bug reports or add-on to existing bug report threads. I encourage you to contribute to either of those methods to hopefully help us get to a resolution at some point.
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basically we are forced to waste gold on lootboxes then , since they shadow removed it from rotation , talk about being unfair.
I’d look up “Gambler’s Fallacy”
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For the time being, sure, although my current strategy is to just start gold capping toons.
We do know the intent of the hotfix was to simply add it to the crate and leave it in the rotation, at the very least. I think this also happened around the time Tusks were up on every BMAH for a week or so. It’s reasonable IMO to believe that this is simply a bug that we need to continue using the proper bug reporting methods for.
And this here is the flaw in the thinking.
Lets make up some math real fast. Let us say Mimrods head has a 5% chance of appearing. Lets say the bruto has a. 05% chance od appearing.
Of course Mimrods head will pop more. It has a much grearer chance.
The assumption based problems people are making IMO is nobody knows what those numbers are. Furrher, as was linked above each generation is and of itself completely independent from the previous iteration. There is no memory so to speak.
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I’m of the opinion, seeing that this thread hasn’t been moved to Bug Reports or a Blue response saying “yes it’s being looked at” (they usually step in and do that). just shows me it’s working as intended. Ultra rare is Ultra rare. I still run SoO for the Dark Shaman set, still hasn’t dropped for me.
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Gambler’s fallacy only cares about independent events without regard to previous outcomes or sequences. An independent coin flip of a fair coin will always have a 50% chance of landing on heads. The gambler’s fallacy occurs when someone believes that an event MUST occur.
But, over the sequence of (number of BMAH regions x items on BMAH each day x number of days), it becomes more and more likely that the Bruto would appear on its own. The LLN (Law of Large Numbers) is a much more applicable argument since we’re talking about outcomes that have occurred over the previous 5+ months. We are in “very, very, very, very unlikely” territory that the Bruto has not appeared simply due to probability, and that rightfully raises suspicion.
To put it in a better perspective, lets talk about 100 coin tosses.
The probability that the 90th coin flip, independent of all previous outcomes, will be a heads on a fair coin is .5. Gambler’s fallacy will have someone believing that the 91st coin flip outcome must be tails.
The probability that 90 coin flips in a row will not be tails is (.5^90). It’s not impossible, but it is very, very, unlikely and would raise suspicion as to whether the coin is fair, especially as flips continue.
That’s the argument many of us are making, but I’m going to emphasize yet again to everyone who has the same complaint that Bug Report submission, including in-game and on the forums, is the proper way to handle this. If any blue response is made here regarding a bug, consider it a one-off that is to not be expected.
I will not comment any further in this thread and am muting since it looks like it’s devolving into yet another “us vs. them” thread, which shouldn’t be the case on a forum where players are looking for direction and help from others.
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I’d like to see your proof of this. Not that it hasn’t shown up on the BMAH, but that it has been truly and fully removed from the digital loot table. Not your conspiracy theories or Reddit thoughts. I want to see some sort of real proof from Blizzard that isn’t your salty take on it because your network of boosters and folks you have searching for you hasn’t turned up anything.
Because without that proof, you are only propagating this falsehood. Could it be a bug that it hasn’t come up? Sure. Could it be that RNG is just RNG? Far more likely.
Until you have proof from Blizzard that it was removed, whether mistakenly or on purpose, you best stick to the facts. Especially here of all places, on the highest moderated forum there is.
And while we’re at it, I’d also like the documentation to include the full loot table and recorded server/date to back this one up too. We like our facts 'round here. Not hyperbole.
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It is possible that the Brutosaur is supposed to be rarer than other rare items. The fact it showed up as often as it did could have been the bug.
If the odds of it showing on the BMAH is 0.1% then there is a 99.9% chance that it will be something else (made up numbers used as an example.) The odds of it showing don’t change. Probability says that it likely should show, but statistically it not showing is not a definite sign of it being removed from the table.
It is possible that Blizzard lowered the odds of it showing on the BMAH and put it in the loot table for the unclaimed boxes so that any player had a chance at getting it, rather than just the players that max out gold.
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There is no indication of that, no.
Outside of the Hotfix to add the mount as a very rare listing in the BMAH when it was originally removed from vendors as well as added as a possibility to the Unclaimed Black Market Containers, there have been no other changes that I can see.
If you believe there is a bug though, you’d want to post in the Bug Report forum.
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Thank you, Vrak. Appreciate your info!
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Thank you for the confirmation! The RNG has gone extremely unfavorably then!
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In your stubborn haste to deny the Gambler’s Fallacy as linked, you just fully described…the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no “more and more likely”. The chance is the exact same, regardless of past outcomes. You are talking about probability, which is completely different and totally irrelevant to discussing loot tables in this game.
Yes, and you are stirring that by continuing to insist there is a bug when it’s been stated multiple times that there’s not one. It doesn’t help to propagate falsehoods, nor does it help to continue to give others an option that is ultimately futile.
As much as you may hate it, sometimes “working as intended” and “keep checking the BMAH” is the correct answer.
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Unfortunately, I found myself back here since the blue post was linked in a different thread, so I’ll go ahead and address you one more time.
It’s clear you did not comprehend my explanation of LLN v. Gambler’s Fallacy, so I suggest you re-read it since I’m not going to explain yet again that it is likelihood over a sequence of events we are concerned about (fair vs unfair coin).
I do take offense to your following excerpt:
Since my guidance has been quite consistent with what Vrakthis stated afterwards:
Vrakthris is free to correct me if I’m wrong here (and I highly encourage being corrected by them), but CS blues do NOT have access to loot tables/BMAH rotations (we, the community, often call them ‘rotations’ although they’re effectively random loot tables still), and the lack of indication of removal appears to be based on documented notes only, without analysis of loot tables or code. Thus, the suggestion was made yet again (after I myself made the suggestion numerous times) to make posts in Bug Reports if we feel there’s a bug.
I don’t understand why there seems to be an axe to grind with me when my guidance (post it on bug reports) has been (indirectly) backed up by blue text; providing correct advice to others is not “propagating falsehoods” or giving “others an option that is ultimately futile”.
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I think it might be best to agree to disagree at this point. Each counterpoint is including language that is not really productive. 
Correct. The only ones that would really have access to specific loot tables would be QA and the Development teams. However, when a change is made to the game there are processes that are generally followed that I do have access to. Such as hotfix and other update notifications. The previous statement made by Kalviery in August did include a direct check-in with the QA/Dev teams to confirm how it intended to work in the current state. There is no indication that the state has changed since that check-in.
Indeed. I am not a Game Developer or a Community Manager so if you do not trust the information I am providing the only alternative is really to report the matter as a bug to have our QA team take a look. QA will likely not be able to reply to the post itself, so there won’t be a means to receive a confirmation but if a bug is found it would likely show up in the Hotfix blog once addressed.
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Thank you Vrak for the additional insight. And to be clear, it’s not that I don’t trust your ability to provide information you are aware of, but more of a “things break without anyone knowing (bugs)” line of thinking if that makes sense.
Thank you again for the additional feedback. Happy New Years!
Basically you are saying you got access to patch notes , like we all have and in the patch notes it doesn’t say that it got removed .
Theres documentation from several players and even a developer of one of the most used and popular addons in the game TSM regarding its disappearance the amount of passion people like us have invested in the game , constantly farming the gold waiting every day at server reset , checking servers , using every tool available has to mean something to you guys .
I agree you can only tell us what you know appreciate the post , we will keep on posting on bug reports until it gets checked because everything points out , there is a bug and it should be looked at , happy holidays.