On day 1 and the first week we will have 3-6 mililon Subs that didn’t come from Retail. It’s old players Subbing back that haven’t played in years.
This number will climb from hype and as new phases are released. Again if Retail has 2 million Subs I don’t expect a huge draw from Retail. A few 100,000. Although maybe half of them do play. However again Classic will have 10+ million Subs and that still dwarfs Retail.
I know it’s anecdotal evidence but I’d like to share my perspective on the Classic Wow release. I quit wow after raid finder in Cataclysm. I just couldn’t keep playing the game I loved anymore because of what it had become. I am returning for Classic Wow to try to see if they can get it right this time.
Did I mention that I was GM of a Relatively Large Raiding guild that has many of it’s key members coming back to try out the new Classic WoW? So I guess I wanted to reinforce the idea that we are out here, unsubbed, waiting for this to release, don’t be surprised when the servers are flooded and if they don’t blow it we might just take this to the next level.
If all 223 servers for BfA had 6,000 people on them, that’s 1,338,000 players.
Since the other 200 are not full, it’s likely that the number of BfA players is around 1,000,000 or even less.
Yikes!
If you think retail has anything over about 1 million subs you’re out of your mind. In all honesty I dont think it has over 750k and thats in months with content being released.
Youll have to excuse abomb trying to justify his prediction that 10 million people are gonna come back to play a 15 year old game that was flawed more than retail is. Nostalgia doesn’t bring that many back and Blizzard for a reason said they are ok if only 10 people play it.
I think realistically at 6 months itll have a healthy sustained population amount, 500k-800k. At launch I think a significant portion of the retail playerbase will be there with the players coming back to play classic but after 6 months pretty much everyone who stuck it out to that point (there will be launch dropoffs obviously) will have atleast 1 max character and their endgame path will be determined and after that its the community thatll keep everyone sticking around rather than the content.
It comes from me logging onto Stormrage and doing this:
/who 1-90 Human Warrior
/who 91-100 Human Warrior
/who 101-109 Human Warrior
/who 110 Human Warrior
/who 111-119 Human Warrior
/who 120 Human Warrior.
This is the only 99% accurate way of determining how many players are on a server. The maximum result that is returned is 50 (which happened a lot) so your result will actually be lower than the real number of players online. Do this for every Class and Race combination at every level range and you can see how many players are online each server.
With a large enough team effort, we could do this for every server and calculate the active number of players online. I also think the 6000 estimate is a low number for the maximum players online limit because I did this on a Thursday.
I wish I saved the clip when Ythisens started streaming. Someone asked if the weakauras leak about the sub count being under 2 million was real and he scoffed at it and said “I’ve seen the actual sub count and you don’t have to worry about WoW being dead.”