I think there are a lot more active players than the OP numbers show. I do agree that there is a problem though.
The problem is most people don’t care
about mythic plus, mythic raids or rated pvp. People want to log in and have fun. Fun use to mean you logged in. Hooked up with friends and accomplished things. Raids, PvP, quest, world events, etc…
Now it’s just grind through one skill level, then grind some more through the next and it continues from their. The rewards are just temporary cosmetic gains. By the time you get through one teir your back to the grind for the next. Also, let us not forget azerite, more grinding. Rep, more grinding. Professions, more grinding. It feels like a job, Not entertainment!
Also, let us not forget the many addons we must use and update on a regular basis. Then we must watch videos and memorize fights before we ever do them. Guilds have specific addon requirements, and require everyone know every fight before ever stepping foot in a dungeon/raid.
I mean, this game requires more daily time than my career and college take/took. We have lives outside of this game. So, LFR, rbgs, rep grinding, profession grinding, is all i have time for. To be honest, I don’t even get all that done on a regular basis.
So, maybe it’s not an active player issue. Maybe it’s that, active players no longer participate the same way they use to.
Even if players have participated this expansion. They quickly grew tired of the constant grind that rewarded a temporary reward as they got ready to run the same content again for the same gear with slightly hire item level.
Maybe blizzard is so focused on esport money they forgot this is a game. Just an fyi. There is no such thing as esports, just a bunch of lazy, entitled snowflakes pretending they are relevant. Get a real job or, start a real business, and contribute to society.