Incorrect.
It is.
It is not.
That is correct.
That is correct.
But I was not calculating the chance of getting it on attempt 1501. I was calculating the probability of NOT getting it on all of the attempts from attempt 1 through attempt 1500.
Everything pu has said about math itt has been completely accurate. Regardless of his or her overall posting tendencies, I donât think there is anything wrong with helping people who are frustrated or feel like the game is broken understand probabilities and how likely their situation is. Additionally, orylia did not say anything untrue itt, nor did pu contradict orylia.
The chance of it dropping, no matter how many attempts is the same. You arenât almost guaranteed to get it because youâve run it 1500 times.
I was going to attempt to discuss this with you, but I didnât realize at first who I was talking to. I really need to make a list of the multitude of alts youâve started using, even in the same thread, so I donât lose track and make this mistake again.
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Iâm not pu, I usually post under yindar but it switched my character a while back and I just didnât bother to change it back.
Iâm happy to discuss it if you are interested. Here is a link that makes it fairly simple. This will calculate your odds of getting loot given you enter the drop rate. So you can for example enter .4 and see what it says. I think the context it provides is helpful. https://xplainthegame.com/dropchance-calculator/
Another way to think of it that I think is helpful to realize why, while the odds of getting it on any given try never change, multiple tries can be summed into an overall probability. Letâs say weâre flipping a coin. Heads we get loot, tails we donât. So we flip once, we get tails. Darn, no loot. Now we flip again and get tails. Darn, no loot. So the odds of flipping tails in one flip is 50%. But what % of the time will we flip tails twice in a row? 3 times in a row? 10? Can we agree that if you flip a coin ten times in a row, you donât have a 50% chance of getting all tails? When we are talking two flips we can just write it out. Youâd expect in two flips to see HH, HT, TH, and TT. So 25% of the time youâll flip tails twice in a row. So weâve shown here that the odds of flipping tails once is not the same as flipping it two or three or ten times in a row - yes?
Thatâs getting pretty close into Gamblerâs Fallacy there.
Every attempt you make on the mount has a 0.4% chance. Given that the outcome is statistically independent, the previous outcomes have no real bearing on the next outcome.
Yes, the probability of having the same outcome decreases with each subsequent attempt, but assuming that means the next outcome is more likely to be different is Gamblerâs Fallacy. You are not any more likely to get the mount on attempt 1500 than you were on attempt 1 or 30 or 819. Your chances donât actually change at all.
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Right, which I stated in my post. I am not making the gamblers fallacy at all. You stated that the odds of getting the mount after 1500 runs arenât almost guaranteed. When you look at each individual run, the odds of getting it on any one is .4%. But when looking at a person who has run it 1500 times, they are almost guaranteed to have gotten it one of those times.
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Thatâs Gamblerâs Fallacy right there.
The past outcomes, when statistically independent, have zero bearing on the next outcome. While your math is correct, the assumption that having 1500 âtailsâ in a row means you any more likely to get âheadsâ on attempt 1501 is false.
Your supposition that the previous streak of âtailsâ increases the odds of a subsequent âheadsâ only holds true if the variables are non-independent.
Edit: Look at it this way: You have a bag with 100 marbles and 96 were red and 4 were blue. Your odds of picking a red marble are much higher than that of picking a blue marble. If you donât replace the marbles as you pick them, your odds of getting a blue marble increase for every red one you pull.
If you replace every marble pulled with one of the same color the odds of keeping up a streak of the same color will technically decrease; but since the variables are all constant, your odds of pulling out a red marble remain much higher than the odds of pulling out a blue marble.
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I did not say any of that? Youâre explaining the gamblers fallacy to me when it is not what weâre talking about nor did I commit it.
Can we stop the back and forth bickering, itâs getting old fast.
I think the explanation of how items are dropped, and the OPâs question has been answered. Unless anything else that is relevant to the OPâs question has not been said, I think we can lock this one up.
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And Iâm trying to explain how, in my opinion, you did.
It doesnât matter how many times youâve kept up the streak, the past outcome has nothing to do with the next outcome in this case. To assume otherwise, by saying youâll be almost guaranteed the mount after 1500 runs, is Gamblerâs Fallacy.
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Bickering? Iâm over here trying to explain math because I like math.
I thought we were having a pleasant debate, relevant to the topic.
But Iâm off to bed, itâs late here.
So the gamblers fallacy would be if I said âman, Iâve run this 1500 times, on 1501 itâs just gotta dropâ as though the odds were changing. But Iâm not. The odds of getting the reins on any run are .4%. Look at it as a collection of runs. If you right now said I donât have the mount, I am going to run this 1500 times in a row, what would your cumulative odds of getting it any time during that set of 1500 runs be?
And likewise, Iâve thought this was a pleasant discussion and enjoyed it even if not completely fruitful. Maybe we will get somewhere some other time.
The math is irrelevant when it comes to the drop-rate. The only data you are working with is the number of runs by a single player, or the limited number participating with Wowhead. The drop-rate is based on all players and all kills. One playerâs bad luck is balanced out with someone elseâs winning streak. The drop-rate gives an idea of how rare a drop is, not how likely it is to drop or how many kills you need.
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That is correct⊠for an individual attempt. But that is not what I was pointing out in my post. I was pointing out that the chance of being so unlucky as to NOT get the drop on any of those 1500 attempts is 0.00245, or 0.245%. That has no bearing on attempt 1501, which is still 0.4%. I pointed out the extreme unluckiness experienced by Chayana to acknowledge his frustration and to empathize, which is why I opened with âYikes!â
Thereâs nothing argumentative here. Thereâs no contradiction. Itâs math. Thereâs no nuance to it. Iâm right about the probability of 1500 consecutive fails. Period. That is the correct answer. Full stop.
That is correct. Good thing I never said that.
Correct. But again, I wasnât talking about the drop chance. I was calculating the probability that someone would fail to get the drop 1500 times in a row.
Every single run is a completely random sample of the drop. It doesnât matter which runs we capture, if we get only runs from one player or every other player or only every tenth run. Each of these all has a .4% drop chance, so yes one personâs bad luck will likely be canceled out by someone elseâs good luck, but on our end those drops are random and that is not useful in predicting probability of getting an item.
So really we can also say, if 1500 players all run this one time each, there is a 99.75% chance that at least one of them will get the drop. Any group of 1500 runs split amongst any group of players will produce the same collective odds of the mount the dropping, no matter how those runs are chosen so long as it is random.
This is also how blizzard chooses drop rates for items in general. They decide roughly how many runs they want it to take before players have x amount of gear, or how fast they want end boss mounts to be out in the population. Then they can calculate based on their drop rate how many raids it will take until on average every player in a guild will have x number of raid items, etc.
Except that the 1500 players running one run each could produce a group with no mount drops, or all of them get the mount. The numbers arenât significant enough to produce the expected drop-rate in the results.
Heâs not using the 1500 players to determine the drop rate. Heâs using the drop rate to determine the probability of an outcome. If you ran 10,000 of those groups of 1500 players, you would expect that 9,975 of those groups would have at least one drop while 25 of those groups would not get a drop.
That would only be true if those players were the only ones you are getting numbers from. The Headless Horseman is killed millions of times each event season. You are taking a limited number of kills randomly out of those millions of kills that happen. To see those actual results would be lucky, not definite.
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