What exactly has Blizzard removed from the game? I mean I can think of maybe a couple of things, and those were discussed prior to their removal and were meant to be limited time things. They have hardly removed close to “everything else”.
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dude, i ran it for…5 years and it never dropped. this year, i ran it on my new shammy and it did finally drop. Dont give up… all i can say.
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Yikes. 1500 tries and no drop. At 0.4% drop rate, the chance of NOT getting it in 1500 tries is about a quarter of one percent.
Been running it since the event started minus a few years. When you could get a group and do it 5 times on one toon. Still no mount.
RNG is exactly th t.
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No it is not.
Each try is independent. Each try has no knowledge, no bad luck protection. Each try at that drop rate which is factored by 10s, 100s of thousands, if not millions of runs has a 99.96% chance to NOT drop it.
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So, if I understand your argument, you are saying nothing should be hard to get, it should either be easy to get, or impossible to get?
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Um, it took me 9 YEARS to get this mount doing what you’re doing. Easily 5-10 runs a day for the whole event for NINE YEARS.
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Yes it is.
I said nothing about an individual attempt. I simply relayed the probability of such a bad streak occurring, 1500 attempts without a drop. that probability is (0.996)^1500, which is about 0.00245, or about one quarter of one percent. My statement is 100% accurate.
Not getting it after 1500 runs is certainly some bad luck. But most people tend to exaggerate their run counts. and as well, In a game with a couple million players, if 1 in 400 won’t get it after 1500 runs, there could be thousands of people who run it that many times and still don’t have it. drop probabilities can be crushing in terms of actually approaching a reasonable certainty of getting something.
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While I appreciate a lively debate, even about mathematics, I’d urge everyone involved to be mindful of urging anyone else in a manner that might be considered rude. I’m going to edit some posts so we can get back on track.
I’d also urge some individuals to stop reporting posts that challenge them, as trolling. It isn’t.
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Pretty much. If 1,000,000 players attempted to get the mount and kept running until they got it, it would be expected that about 2,500 people still wouldn’t have it after 1,500 attempts. Still must sting to be one of those players. Sorry Chayana. Good luck tonight!
I hear your urgency in urging that our urgings be more kind and less urgent.
I feel your pain OP i truly do. But RNG is a cruel mistress prime example i have been going into Kara for quite awhile and curb stomping Attune and he still hasn’t giving up his mount yet the meanie.
That calculation is based on the assumption that it has to drop in those 1500 attempts. So, while your math may be sound, your logic behind it is flawed.
There is no guarantee of it dropping after any set number of attempts, therefore your chance each time is 0.4%.
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Basically, it all boils down to this:
Any percentage you may see is only an estimate based on players that have reported them. There’s no real formula that we, as players, can gather with any degree of accuracy. Sure, we can estimate, but it’s just that…an estimate.
Unless one knows exactly how the loot table is set up, any mathematical formula or the like is simply one’s opinion on how the drop rate is set; not a factual representation of how the drops are set.
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To add to this, any droprate listed on WoWHead is based on data collected by that site’s data collection add-on. As such, their calculations are based only on characters who complete the encounter while running that add-on.
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Well, that too can be analyzed with statistics. The contents of the loot-filled pumpkin have been reported to wowhead 166,000 times, and 689 times those pumpkins contained the reins. So, we could get an error if wowhead was unable to count these results correctly - but it is reasonably simple for them to count loot drops, I see no reason not to trust their tally.
So this really takes me back in my math days, but given that huge of a sample your margin of error is tiny. Cheating with some calculators online, you’d know with 99.99% confidence that you were within + or - 7 hundrendths of a percent. So we can know that the drop rate is near enough to .4% that any error is insignificant for our purposes.