There was no historical context lol. Also, what “validated” number? I don’t remember Blizzard ever giving out any numbers.
Before Legion… you know… the publicly reported subscriber counts they legally could not lie about…
You mean the data that had nothing to do with the data recently presented? That data? Not sure how you can pull numbers from two different graphs using two different data sets and come to any sort of conclusion lol.
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What are trends based off of? What grounds them in reality to make it useful?
Think real simple for this one.
Except hard numbers aren’t trends lol.
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You can make a rough estimation following the line back to the last reported sub numbers. Bottom line is WoW was and is doing better than most people thought.
No you can’t, not when you are using two completely different sets of data lol.
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- Garrisons aren’t player housing.
- Final Fantasy housing sucks.
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well, ff14 sucks, so who cares?
I’ve put over 1000 hours into ff14. It can have its charms but I still think wow endgame is better.
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Delves made a believer out of me
they are permanent are not subject to auto demolition and can do the same things houses can. your comparison to real life is disingenuous and shows anti housers have no leg to stand on
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Apartments are crazy tiny and have no outdoor plot to work with.
Better than nothing, I suppose, but not that good.
Would be nice if they’d allow the interior to at least be upgraded to that of a small house. Could understand no “mansion apartments” but 2 story penthouse is pretty realistic.
You’re right! You can compare the prediction (“trends”) against real numbers! And given success criterium, a company, such as Blizzard, will continue to use that model.
So, the model showcased them retaining nearly half as many players during Shadowlands. (Read: Shadowlands lost twice as many players as expected.) They still recovered 50% of the lost subscriber counts, according to their own graph, using the same lines overlayed on top of either.
In addition, someone said this about Shadowlands, which sold 3.7M units before/on launch days (that’s how pre-orders work):
- In the months leading up to the expansion’s release and the time since launch, the game reached and has sustained its highest number of players on monthly or longer-term subscriptions compared to the same period ahead of and following any WoW expansion in the past decade, in both the West and the East.
So, who said this? Activision Blizzard. And lying is illegal, so we can trust them, right?
https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/world-warcraftr-shadowlands-becomes-fastest-selling-pc-game-all
Now, some nerd named Tom Chilton said 10.1 million in Legion, but Blizzard PR said it wasn’t going to confirm it. Instead they said this about Legion:
The company also said that it had reached a number of concurrent users logged on that it had not seen since the Cataclysm days.
So, Legion drew as much hype as Cataclysm… which was basically 12 million subscribers, falling to 8.5-9.0 million.
Now, is it fair to assume that “concurrent users” is not subscribers? Of course! But we can assume Tom probably wasn’t lying, he just didn’t know the new PR rules – this was the first expansion they stopped reporting the count. So, if we lowball Tom’s estimate, to 8 million, does that line up with Activision Blizzard saying “highest sustained players leading into an expansion”?
So, does Legion’s peak at 8mil make sense within the context of the inferred numbers? Seems reasonable. It’s a temperature check.
So, let’s review:
- Shadowlands had near-record high player counts in the past decade, which would place it near 10 million.
- Tom Said 10.1M for Legion, which lines up with Activision’s public statements more.
- We can assume this Blizzard graph is (x=date) and (y>=0), and because no one making that PowerPoint is going to change the X-axis’s scale (there’s no obvious stretching in the pixels), we can assume the Y-axis is to scale too. And because the Y-values are floating off the bottom line, it’s using raw value, and not adjusted values.
So, what can we infer with trends rooted in reality? We can infer WoW had closer to 7.5M in DF, and that my lowball value of 5M is well-below reasonable estimates. And like I said, this simply is to show that FFXIV’s higher estimates do not compare to low estimates for WoW.
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That’s a lot of words to basically say nothing.
This is pure assumption. Unless we have actual numbers, it’s meaningless to discuss. What’s more, Shadowlands didn’t even sell anywhere near that number of copies so what exactly was everyone doing?
You literally killed whatever you were trying to say in the next line, rofl.
That’s a lot of assumptions to make on a graph with no Y-Axis and no reference points to go off, nor any ideas on the underlying equation Blizzard used to create their rolling average.
So are you going to post anything of substance or no? So far you still haven’t explained how to pull a 7 million figure off of a graph that has no data points, no y-axis, no clear starting point, and no knowledge of the underlying equation to form the graph lol.
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Was this video proven flase? I’ve never heard anything debunking it.
How exactly do you debunk something with nothing factual to reference to lol?
Not true, but not false. It’s all estimations. A conclusion is only as good as its data.
Hilarious to say when there was no data to pull from lol. Using a starting point of hard sub numbers while using a trend line graph with no data set and no y-axis.
lol wow