huh? your chance of getting it has nothing to do with how many other people have it.
bad luck protection means your chance of getting it improves over time. it does not and was never intended to mean “you didn’t get it last week so now it’s guaranteed”.
it was also definitely not intended to mean “we’re taking it away from other people so you feel less alone”, which is what you seem to be suggesting with your last post.
A statistically significant increase is different than a meaningful increase though.
A few years ago, there was a sensational headline in the NYT along the lines of “eating lunch meat and hotdogs increases your risk of this certain cancer by 40%.”
Wow! Scary! I should stop eating these things even though I love them! I should feel bad for feeding them to my children! But reading into the article further, it disclosed that it was for a specific form of cancer, and that the chance of developing that cancer at all was extremely unlikely, say, a .1% chance. So if your diet includes hotdogs, it goes up to .14%. Yes, that is an increase, but is it enough to make it worth changing your diet over? For most people it isn’t.
A phrase like “Bad Luck Protection” is really strong, and infers a lot bigger difference than saying “repeat kills will increase the odds of the drop slightly.” “Bad Luck Protection” was used in the context of Legion legendaries, where it reliably awarded a new legendary after a certain amount of effort. In this context, people were relying on it to mean that there would be some certainty that the item would drop after a certain amount of effort, and the only relevant timeframe to consider is the span of the season it drops, because that is the only period in which the content that awards it is relevant, after which reward ilvls dramatically increase, and the item’s relative strength loses significant value, sometimes even all of it. Gone are the days of Valanyr.
Setting expectations correctly is important when you’re unwilling to disclose actual numbers. People hate feeling duped.
All the scolding people are doing is pretty meaningless in this context, because no one really knew.
What?
Let’s say week 1 goes by and 1% of other people have it (but you don’t).
Let’s say week 2 goes by and 1% (+1%) of other people have it (but you don’t).
Let’s say week 3 goes by and 1% (+1% + 1%) of other people have it (but you don’t).
More people have it - roughly 6% of people - and you still don’t.
As the chance increases - mathematically, the number of people that have it increases (not even linearly).
I’m not gonna sit here and explain basic mathematics to you any longer. Bad luck protection did nothing to protect an individual player from “bad luck” - but everything to increase the overall number of players that had the axe - thus punishing those with bad luck more.
hey, quick basic math question: if nobody’s individual chance of getting it improved, how did an increasing number of people get it every week?
another quick basic math question: what does probability of an independent event happening to you have to do with how many other people it has already happened to?
Like I said - I’m not going to play your game.
Of course individual chance to get it increased ever-so-slightly.
Which gives each individual player a slightly higher chance to get it.
Over the course of the millions of kills, however, the number of people that mathematically got it - increased by that amount. That’s just how math works.
If true, I was right about the original %. I figured there was no way they’d guarantee it after a certain amount of runs and after 25 kills, even at 1% an Ember, you’d still have a 75% chance to not get it.
People getting it in LFR… That is some insane luck.
If this is true, just throw yourself against Heroic for 14 weeks and you’ll get it. So that’s nice, I just have 10 more weeks to go. Lessers only work when they drop, and I’ve gotten a big fat 0 this week.
which is what bad luck protection means. thank you for the discussion!
lol…so increasing my chance to get it from 2.97% to 3.75% somehow “protected me from bad luck”? Or did it still give me a mathematically insignificant chance to get an item - while also increasing the number of people who get that drop that week?
Thanks for playing.
Anyone else think the word ‘philosophy’ has lost all its meaning when coming from blizzard or is that just me
Are YOU thinking mathematically?
BLP means your chance of getting it goes up each week.
Going from 1% to 2% is increasing your chance to get it.
You’re mistaking chance with a Subway club stamps.
yes, correct. the goal of BLP is to give you an increasing chance over time. the longer you’re unlucky, the better your chances get. that is exactly right.
this has nothing to do with probability. it does not affect your chances of getting it this week or any other week.
Are you trolling? How do you acknowledge that BLP increases the chance to get the weapon, but still argue it’s not BLP?
i think he’s suggesting that it’s only bad luck protection if it gives you a 100% drop chance.
otherwise it’s along the lines of “i know 30 people get struck by lightning every year. i also happen to know 30 people have been struck by lightning so far this year. therefore it’s impossible for it to happen to me. if anyone needs me, i’ll be on the roof waving a large antenna around”. confusing statistics and probability, which i kind of get because our educational system teaches them as if they’re the same thing 
But, it DOES do that that (eventually).
The only certain things in life are death, taxes, and the dreamrender.
According to the datamined information, 16 kills previously gave a person 17.14% chance to get the weapon.
Which means a few things…
etc etc.
You can argue all you want. But at the end of the day - increasing the number of people who additionally get the drop each week - while also providing a very slight and insignificant chance for an individual user to actually obtain it - doesn’t protect bad luck. It only serves to punish those with bad luck more.
Peace.
Well yeah, 17.14% isn’t very high. They have a chance to get it, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it.
Ah, I see, you don’t understand how math works.
This is wild.
for very narrow and bizarre interpretations of the word “punish”, sure.