That speculation is all we have to go on unless blizzard actually has some transparency for once and gives us the real numbers.
And if those numbers are real? People doing normal and lfr should give up.
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I’m not defending blizzard because I think this was done very poorly but I do believe it was quite obvious that someone would have to get REALLY lucky to get the legendary from normal or LFR.
Blizzard did state that the chances to get the legendary increased “significantly” on heroic.
I owned that I was an idiot.
It’s fun to buy a lottery ticket and dream about what you’d do with the money if you win, but you always know the odds of winning and can temper your expectations accordingly.
Not disclosing the odds, and saying there is bad luck protection for the drop at all difficulties infers though that there’s a meaningful improvement in the chance of it dropping. Is it unreasonable to rely on such a statement?
Had I known what the actual odds were and what the protection would amount to, I would have made different decisions about what I played and how I would use my time this season. I’d certainly have not bothered nearly as much with clearing lower content. It feels bad.
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I’m making no such complaint. It seems clear if anything that I should have not bothered. I feel dumb for getting excited about it though, and that’s legitimate feedback.
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of course not. but you have nothing to support the contention that there has not been a meaningful improvement, other than your anecdotal observation that you personally have not received it. that’s not conclusive unless you interpret BLP to mean that your drop rate must be 100% by now.
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Check out the wowhead article published today.
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The speculative article about a change that’s less than 24 hours old?
i did. it shows that the drop rate increased as you got more embers, which means BLP was working. it also shows that the new drop rate is higher than the old one,which means that the buff seems to have improved it further.
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Speculation is based on no firm evidence. I’m pretty sure that “datamining it - and comparing the differences from an old version to a new version” is not pure speculation.
The bad luck protection - did nothing to protect you from bad luck. It simply increased the number of other people who had the legendary. You were always prone to bad luck.
From the article,
Please read the following disclaimers.
- This data is not labeled. There’s no “Fyr’alath Legendary Drop Rate” tag, but based on multiple factors, we assume that this is related to the Fyr’alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP). This could not be related, but we do think it is.
- While we think we know what each set of data is for, we don’t know how the graphs interact with each other (i.e. How exactly does the BLP from Lesser and Greater Embers combine?)
- We don’t know if there’s an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists.
- Curve data is a set of points and we are assuming a linear interpolation, but we don’t know for sure.
Omg it’s worse than I thought. 
Your dev team MADE the numbers, you know the drop rates and could estimate how many people would have the axe at every level of play. You also knew how badly this was going to rub people because we had this nonsense last expac with Rae’shalare. The poor drop rate was on purpose, the hidden statistics behind everything was on purpose, and it was all done just to drive engagement. If people knew going in just how likely they would be to even SEE the axe, your metrics would have looked atrocious, and we can’t have that, can we? Well, you got lots of complaining regardless, but that counts as engagement, too! You guys can’t lose, but the players sure can.
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All that matters is how much spin Ion & Morgan can put on this as a valuable learning experience, and how retrospective they can be while musing on potential legendaries in the future. Also gives them an opportunity to reinvent the legendary wheel again for Last Titan (after the outrage has died down).
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Have read. Point still stands. It’s not speculation - it’s based on firm evidence. Period.
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I do think the embers make it worse and not better for the player psychology.
If Blizz wanted it to be rare they should have just made it a flat low %. No BLP, no embers, nothing.
I’d argue make it a GL drop instead of PL as well so guilds could actually decide who to give it to, but maybe that’s too much.
Did a normal Fyrakk skip yesterday with a raid full of DKs, Paladins, and Warriors.
Zero drops.
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the bad luck protection protects everyone equally. it does not have separate logic for your account compared to anyone else’s.
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I never said it did - but if you don’t get it (ie have back luck) - the percentage drop chance increasing, statistically and mathematically - mean that more people have it - and you still don’t.
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big “everything has a 50% chance because either it happens or it doesn’t” energy coming from this line of thinking 
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Disagree. It’s factual. If you don’t get it - but the numbers have increased, and another week goes by - there are more people with it now than before - and you still don’t have it. It is what it is. If you can’t agree that the BLP system punished those with “bad luck” - then you’re not thinking mathematically.
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