As we all know, arena teams back in TBC started at 1500, and rating changes were zero-sum, meaning that if one team lost a game for 10 points, the winning team would gain 10 points. The result of this system was a meta where many people would play their 10 games per week, and then disband and reform the team is the rating got so low that their point gains were impacted. Because of this meta, points were constantly being fed into the system by reforming teams, and everyone had a minimum number of arena points they could expect at the end of the week, otherwise they’d just reform.
The retail rating system that was forced on us in TBC Classic works very differently. Teams start at 0 rating, and can get up to 1200 before they can start losing points and have to really compete. The result of this is a meta where there’s a high barrier of entry (since you have to play 10-20 games before you even reach what’s effectively the new starting rating), and has a significantly lower starting rating, which greatly affects the majority of teams. Gladiators are still very high rated, casual arena players just in it to lose 10 games a week are still very low rated, but everyone in between is getting screwed.
To put this into perspective, the cutoff for the Challenger title is currently just a hair over 1400. What that means is that the top 35th percentile are currently 100 points below the original TBC starting rating. I’ll repeat that for emphasis: the top THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT of teams are currently ONE HUNDRED POINTS below the original STARTING rating. This is an enormous problem, because it means everyone between the 50th and 90-95th percentiles is getting hundreds of points per week fewer than they should be. Let’s look at that 35th percentile again: currently, at 1400 rating, they’re getting about 250 points in 2s and under 300 points in 3s. At the original TBC cutoff of around 1650-1700, they would be earning 400-460 points in 2s and 470-530 points in 3s.
And all of this is doubly a problem because we’re looking at what’s probably going to be the shortest arena season in history. Everyone’s already bored of T4 content and clamoring for phase 2 to be released. If we get another 6 weeks of phase 1, it will mean that the average player will barely be able to buy one single piece of arena gear. And if T5 is released early but season 1 is allowed to continue on, many people will stop queueing arenas entirely as the gear will no longer be relevant. The brackets, which are already incredibly small due to predictably low participation that was obvious when these changes were announced, will shrink even father and we’ll start seeing gladiator titles awarded to teams that don’t even have the rating to buy shoulders.
Something has to be done here. I think the most obvious solution would be to adjust the rating algorithm to better fit the original TBC curve, but if that’s too big of a fix to be rolled out in a timely manner, I would suggest either a blanket increase to points awarded or a reduction in arena point costs.