Your proof has three assumptions that are not proven in the middle of it:
First and second, this block quote:
To be specific,
1. You assume Protoss’ GM performance is, in essence, boosted by the race.
2. You assume Stats is affected by this same bias.
3. You assume Dark and Stats’ match making ranks are representative of their skill level in a tournament. We’ve seen multiple players who switch from excelling to flopping based on environmental switches.
If you are actually any good at statistics, you would know that a 1 in 5 happens. That’s kind of what that means.
I play Angband! Double failing 1%s is basically an inevitability due to the dungeon being 100 floors, and I’ve lost multiple characters to this.
You haven’t proven this, though. You may have demonstrated it to a degree you find satisfactory, but there’s multiple things that you believe that are not proven in your demonstration that I do not and that my personal analysis does not support.
Then why do you post here every day and usually multiple times per day? Why dredge up literally year old threads to reply to something?
Because you do care and you attach ego to this.
If you wanted to explain it, you would have done so sooner.
And if you wanted it to be understood, you would have tried to make it an approachable one.
But more than that: I called your post - not your argument - nonsense, because it was. You asserted something, devoid of context, and I called it dumb; because without more information it was simply not right and not a reasonable refutation of anything that got said.
In other words, you strawmanned someone I respect so I felt obliged to point it out.
Actually, no, that’s entirely because of your posting history. I just don’t like you, but your opinions are something I’m neutral on at worst.
Not liking you is also why I don’t post in threads you post in, basically, because any post by you I don’t seriously read is usually brain capacity saved; since so many of them are massive troll posts.
a- I saw no argumentation to that effect. I’ve seen multiple assertions of things that could be construed as this, but no actual evidence and explanation.
b- You didn’t post that information in either post, so, no, you asserted it without immediate evidence? That’s not lying.
And, most importantly, c- Your evidence here deals with one player (Stats) and neither I nor Terranic mentioned a specific player.
I won’t speak to someone else, but I’m not interested in debating about a specific set or players’ skills, that statement was exclusively in response to this complete bait that’s pretending to be rhetoric:
These two posts are implying very overtly that the only reasonable cause is what you assert is the truth.
Unfortunately, that’s not how that works.
e.g., a player pulling underdog wins, a player can be better at one task than another, a player’s build could blind-counter the other’s, are all very real things. The magnitude of these effects, as you know since you know statistics, is no longer noise when you’re analyzing small cases like ‘one tournament’.
It’s not an assumption, it’s proven fact. We can verify the result in 3 ways. You can find out what those methods are if you had actually read the arguments that you are attacking. It’s clear your strategy, if you can even call it that, is to attack first and think later.
The dude knocked out an opponent 700 mmr higher than him at 1 in 10 odds using the very unit comp everyone knows is busted.
How on Earth is it considered an “assumption” to use the most accurate algorithm on Earth to parse tens of millions of data points to measure the skill levels of players relative to one another. It’s literally the polar opposite of an assumption.
In statistics, once something becomes too unlikely to occur, it’s considered a significant result. That threshold is usually 1 in 10 and guess what. Stats knocking out Dark, alone, met that threshold. That’s how big of a data point it is. Normally you need at least 30 data points to meet that threshold. Beating a player 700 mmr higher reached the same confidence in only 3 games.
“I am right at 1 in 10 odds; you are wrong at 9 in 10 odds. Why? Because I said so.”
My conclusion is 9 times more likely and you want me to pretend that your conclusion is reasonable. It’s not.
My man, I haven’t posted here in years. I started posting because the balance and game design were going off the rails crazy and somebody needs to apply some counter pressure before the APM spammers turn the game into a meme. I was the one saying we needed to make the maps more diverse. You can check. I called for that almost a year ago. Fast forward to now, they finally got the more diverse maps, pro players are having a melt down over them, but the number of games played has INCREASED for the first time in 5 years. I was right, once again, the pro players were wrong. I know what I am talking about, and they don’t.
Imagine if the pro players were as snappy at identifying & fixing problems as I am. The new map pool reversed a year’s worth of decline. That could have happened a year ago, which would have been the equivalent of reversing two years of decline.
You can hop onto pro player’s streams and they will whine about the new maps. To this day, they still haven’t even identified the issue. Other people identified & solved the problem and they still haven’t noticed there was a problem to begin with. That’s how oblivious they are. These are the people who get to balance the game. Uh, what?! How on Earth does that make any sense at all.
Yes, it’s my fault that you don’t know how to interpret MMR values. Lmao.
This clown train has just reached hyper-sonic speeds. I stopped reading there. Nobody on planet Earth is going buy into your lies, because that’s what they are at this point. I was on the edge about whether you lied or you just misread or whatever. You definitely lied. That’s crystal clear now.
Beating a player 600-700 mmr higher than you is an extraordinary result. It is. Nobody is going to watch Stats rally tempests into spore crawlers and say, “Yeah I think this guy totally outplayed dark.” It’s like we’re living on two different planets here. Let me ask you something. Since it’s fine for a Protoss to beat Zergs at a 700 mmr skill deficit, you won’t be opposed to buffing Zerg to where players like GosuReaper are beating Showtime and Maxpax, right? Put your logic in reverse here man. It’s crazy. It’s like you are not thinking this through at all.
Patience was the ‘Angry Korea Man’ of SC2. (war3 person who made his own trollish builds to win with it). Frankly if P wasn’t made of cheese this guy would have never been in GSL. Im not sure he even learnt to macro for top level.
Anyone who has a gut feeling for how mmr works is going to know that it would be very strange for someone to have a 600-700 mmr difference between their matchups. We can also look at Aligulac which has per matchup ratings and see that Stats’ pvz is identical to his pvp. He doesn’t have unusually high pvz performance.
The general theme of the counter arguments, or their attempt at counter arguments, is that there is a confounding variable. Maybe stats is best in pvz, except he isn’t. Maybe stats is better in offline tournaments than dark, except dark is phenomenal in offline tournaments. The other two variables would be the new map pool, and the new balance patch. There were times when Dark was caught off guard by the new cloaking ability of the mothership, for example. But, they can’t admit to that because it’s almost identical to admitting to balance issues.
That leaves the map pool as the only thing they can shift the blame to, but it also has a balance-undertone because it means toss is favored on this map pool to the tune of +600 mmr. The only other option is to say that Stats just got incredibly lucky. That’s not a good explanation when Protoss is dominating Grandmaster, using carriers which are what Stats used. Stats didn’t get lucky, carriers are just busted.
All the arguments lead back to Protoss being overpowered, and there’s no way around it. I am a yuuuuge stats fan, BUT, he’s not at the same skill level that he was at before his retirement, and it’s pretty clear he’s relying on carriers in order to beat the best players.
If you use GM to calculate the size of the PvZ advantage, it works out to +300 mmr, but that’s the average across all protoss in GM, and only some protoss abuse carriers. The strength of carriers is very likely much higher than +300, and Stats’ gsl performance seems to indicate it’s at least +600.
That’s a bald faced lie, dude. You were shown the mmr difference between the players. The performance gap is huge, and it proves my point: the performance gap is a substantial reason to doubt the result.
You had a variety of theories on why Stats might have higher performance in that particular matchup, or how he might be stronger in tournaments than on the ladder. That’s fine to have those theories, the issue is that you assumed your theories are true and made it my fault that I hadn’t disproved your theories. That’s not how it works. I showed a substantial reason to doubt that Stats could win. If you want to beat my point you have to show a substantial reason he could’ve won, and “maybe” he’s better in pvz and “maybe” he’s better in tournaments isn’t a substantial reason. You’re elevating an unsubstantiated theory over a concrete, evidence-based theory. You are doing that while accusing me of not using “reason” and having “no evidence.” It’s an inversion of reality.
In addition to that, I showed that Stats isn’t better in PvZ. His PvZ ranking on Aligulac is the same as his PvP and PvT. So you’re wrong. It’s as simple as that. Rather than admitting you were wrong, you’re still attacking me. You are attacking me, rather than discussing the topic. That’s the definition of trolling.
I decided to finish reading your post today and, holy cow, was it a mistake. The psychological projection here is rather intense. I gave a 1,000 word essay citing statistics, calculating metrics with 3 different methods, etc, and some guy comes into the thread, lies about me by saying I’ve provided “no evidence or reason”, doubles down on that lie, and then calls ME the troll. Lmao. Just wild.
Your post has inverted reality to such an extreme degree that I think I’ll block not just you but anyone who upvotes you. Posting bald faced lies is one thing, but doublinf downing on it and shifting blame is a galactic-sized red flag. We’re talking crazy ex wife levels of crazy here. It’s like we’re going through a divorce here, arguing over who gets the house, and it’s just a conversation about if Stats’ performance was affected by carriers. The amount of emotion from your posts is radically disproportionate to the situation. Yikes. That’s all I can say on the matter. Yikes.
Well, you win. You baited me into responding. That’s what trolls want, it’s attention. You won. Can we get a round of applause.
Earlier in the thread I commented on the bias of so-called “expert” sc2 players and how I could put out ideas on how to improve sc2 but that they’d be ignored because they don’t fit neatly into the biases of the so-called “experts.” I learned a long time ago that SC2’s social media is jam-packed with enthusiasts. Practically any regularly active poster is either a pro player or a caster. Casuals aren’t interested enough in a game to argue about it online. A good example is how a youtube video will receive 18k views but only get 100 one-sentence comments. So if anyone is active on sc’s social media, there’s probably a 75%+ chance they are a pro player. Add in a fascial bias in favor of Protoss, which Eliwan clearly has, it’s pretty obvious he’s a professional protoss player. What else could possibly explain such an extreme emotional response to the idea that carriers need nerfs. Literally nobody on Earth would care if the carrier was nerfed except a pro player who is highly invested in keeping the power level of carriers very high.
This scenario is a perfect example of what I was talking about in that the pro players should not be allowed to manage the balance of the game. Their bias is just way too severe. Suggesting a nerf to carriers broke this dude’s brain to the point he was posting totally nonsensical things. These people are way too invested to be fair and objective about the game’s balance. Pro players should not be designing the game, and you can look at this thread for a perfect example of why.
Carriers are very weirdly balanced in PvZ. They are very cheap, but Zerg has Neural Parasite. Dark probably didn’t take advantage of that. I don’t blame him, it would be extremely difficult.
Toss has the range advantage late game. In the ideal scenario it’s revelation then focus firing with tempests. In less ideal scenarios, they use disruptors, storm and feedback, all of which have the range advantage. Who wins the ultra late game really boils down to who has the range advantage, and that’s generally it.
Current ZvP strategies are about using cracklings and banelings to clear out the base the protoss defends the least, and then, as the protoss expands farther away from the main, clearing out the main. After that it’s mass corruptor with a few lurkers. You win the air fight and morph broods to take care of his remaining ground units. That’s how you beat archon carrier storm.
The problem is that it’s extremely hard to do given mass cannon and shield battery. Recall also aids his ability to respond to threats. Momaship goes on the opposite side of the army. You recall to the momma to save your far off base, then recall back to the other side to save it from the multiprong. The net result is that zerg bleeds off gas in banelings and that just puts him behind but usually the protoss can get a base kill after one of the recalls if he confirms the zerg is out of position. His army just moves so fast that he can teleport to the left side, clear out your attack, teleport back to the right, and hit your other base. That’s basically what beat dark in the gsl.
The trade off of an unstoppable army is that it is immobile. At least that’s been the trade off historically. Modern skytoss has the mobility advantage on top of being the stronger army.
No the Broods have to Target fire the Templar. If they are distracted by cannons it allows the Templar to get way too close. If the template can get close they can zone out the Zerg Army and allow a lot of the other protoss units to get close too. Attacking static defense usually happens when the protons is out of position.
I mean, if you are attacking into both his cannons and his army at the same time, and expecting to win, that’s on you. The ‘smart’ thing to do would be to take half the map and build your own spine/spore crawler forest.
Kinda. The toss has the mobility advantage excluding the ling runby’s. The actual army is way stronger and way more mobile. The toss will always be in position to engage your army, excluding the ling counter attacks. Those are the only ones that really have a chance of avoiding the main army.
Congratulations to Protoss for reaching 45% for a second time in SC2 history. No race has ever been above 40 except Protoss, which has been to 45% twice:
https://i.imgur.com/sOd3fr0.png
Can we get a round of applause for the IMbalance counsel?
In other and totally unrelated news, a 6200 protoss was caught using no hotkeys. Yep, you heard that right, the mechanical difficulty of toss is so exceptionally difficult that it is possible to win at 6200 mmr with no hotkeys. I would legit lose 1,000 mmr if I stopped using hotkeys as zerg. Clearly I am boosted by hotkeys. Hotkeys OP! This guy is so talented that if he just CTRL+1’d every now and then, he’d have 3,000+ mmr. Amazing. Just amazing. An insanely talented player held back by the weakness of protoss. When are the next rounds of zerg and terran nerfs?
The funny thing is that I’d bet protoss aren’t even trying that hard to achieve these insane results. Players try hardest when they are underpowered and need every advantage to win. Players become lazy when they don’t have to work hard to win. So toss are hitting 45% GM representation while playing super duper lazy. Toss literally carries them so hard that it’s unreal. A 6200 player with 0 hotkeys. Let that sink in. It’s the definition of zero effort. He can’t even bother to hotkey his army.
I don’t know if you play LoL, but it is the equivalent of champs like Xerath, Ziggs and Caitlyn. Zero skill required. I used to have fun.
Edit: I forgot Ezreal.
It’s the main reason I don’t stream right now. The only way to beat protoss is to allin, and if you stream there are enough stream snipers that allining will never work. Allins might eek out a 55% win-rate vs toss right now, but add in stream sniping and it’s like 30%.
I haven’t played any league. I have a nephew who absolutely loves it. He has no clue how easy he has it. He’s all raging about balance and how this one character is invulnerable to teleport and I am thinking absolutely nothing here compares to the insane mechanical difficulty of sc2. I have a 2 base swarm host build that requires 5 army hotkeys in ZvZ. 1 is lings, 2 is mutas, 3 is nydus, 4 is queens, 6 is secondary lings. That’s what’s required to beat players like Livibee lmao. It’s unreal how hard the mechanical difficulty is for tech based zerg plays. They are so far behind in eco that you have to compensate with something and in a ZvZ literally the only tool your opponent doesn’t have access to is your own multitasking skill. So this kid is raging about clicking around 1 character and I am just face palming. I should offer him $1,000 to get masters in SC2. The salt would be epic. Obviously he can’t pick protoss, that would just be disgraceful. I’d have to disown him. I could never look at his face again. Gotta take his pictures off the wall.
I messaged a buddy on facebook. I haven’t talked to him in years. He played protoss. He quit because he couldn’t get GM and every loss was infuriating him. SC2 was taking up too much of his day & mental space. I message him and tell him GM is practically free if you pick protoss. This is the perfect time to get it. You can check it off your bucket list after this. Just get it once and find the satisfaction you were yearning for. I haven’t heard back from him. He’s still mad and hates the game.
A good Toss streamer, I think, is Rotterdam. He does some pretty cool things, like Zealot + Phoenix. Same as BeastyQT.
When I was playing I just cheesed with Banshees. I hit platinum, then quit.
