I hereby crown you Sherlock Holmes.
Biased Sherlock Homes.
Nobody claims about unfair loses but when you put a robot to play disguised as human it pisses of everybody because you know its not fair.
a couple times now I’ve been reading a post and I’m like ‘wow this dude is just dropping massive truth bombs right now on these whiners, who is this? oh its whovian!’
don’t be shy, we’ve all got smurf accounts now that have posting privileges lol
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I dont know many Terran that have a problem with TvZ. Both have strengths and weaknesses and I actually think it is the most “balanced” match up. there are things T can complain about but I am sure Z can as well. I dont ever recall having a problem with this match up…
That PvT match up on the other hand. Its just cringe to watch and even more cring to play. horrible. Most terrans agree. Ironic how every P think that the match up is in a great state and hasnt been better. I bet. sure hasnt been better… toss doing toss things.
I agree that balance is not the main reason that you are losing/winning. However, all things being equal balance does come into play at all levels. It usually rears its ugly head in PvT. Most terrans think the match up is broken. P will tell you it is in an amazing state. and they want it to stay exactly where it is.
PvT has has 50% + win rate for the better part of 2+ years…60% at the present moment. guess outside of maru and the other 3 at the top terran noobs need to L2P
I am all on board with saying PvT is Toss favored right now. But dont lie and say 60%. Aigulac says 54.81%. And if you look at premier tournament results you will see much more even numbers. But whatever man. Go ahead and continue to believe what you want to believe in a vacuum and ignore any evidence to the contrary.
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I just looked at the current statistics:: for the most recent period
Start Aug. 27, 2020
End Sept. 9, 2020
Games 653
PvT 98–60 (62.03%)
h_ttp://aligulac.com/periods/275/?sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=all
This is the worst PvT start in a long time its actually worst than when I made the original post its was at 59% now it is over 62% and only getting worst. this is another period where I can all but guarantee PvT finieshes 50% + whats the odds on 55% this time…
I am not looking at this in a bubble. You guys say aguilac is they way to go because it considers GM/Pro and major tournaments.
none of us ladder noobs.
Where did I say I lose to cannons? Thanks for bronz advice… GM posters.
No, there are games that just worse protoss players win… I check replay it is not BELIEF maybe sometimes it can be a thrown game but a lot of cases losing to worse protoss players
Wrong, Aligulac counts ‘‘high level’’ games, but not just major tournaments and pro games, it even count weekly tournaments, every tournament that has master+ games from any server including hina and SEA,that’s why Aligulac is good to see trends but not to see the ultimate balance, for that, you need to see only premier tournament data with players that are on the top 0-100 on aligulac.
There was a page that showed data from the latest tournaments, don’t remember the name, it started with M but not sure the rest, btw, that page showed around 52% on the last two tournaments. Last season was 54% and the previous one was 47,7%. You can see stats from premier tournaments at liquipedia, usually it is never more than 54% and most of the time is around 50%-52% and even some T favored stats.
This Aligulac period looks crazy because the amount of games is extremely low, usually each period has at least 2500 games, this one just 650. The final count will be probably around 53,25% because the first half was 51.75% and the second one 53,59%.
I think you are missing the concept glass cannon, which means a unit that has high firepower but low survavility, in this context, T is the glass cannon, and as he said, the counter to terran is AOE because bio units has low HP.
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Dear Ðióġeŋex,
Aligulac is not perfect, that’s right.
But why premier tournaments should be considered more than it?
They are played by top players on the world.
Humans, with their personalities, emotions, feelings.
They differ with each other.
Part 1. I doubt in sense of taking tournament data only.
Many variables determine win, including:
physical form, mental form, overall skill (limit?), strategies, preparation versus exact player/match up and more.
Many strategies are very strong until opponents develop a counter for it.
As a result trend in strategies changes.
If Random wins 100% of tournaments in 2021, then yes, it could be an indication that something is wrong.
But the winner is the person who at correct point in time had enough skill and luck to succeed. (by luck I mean also non-game related things)
If data according top 2 attendants of the tournament is taken into account (1st and 2nd place), then everything is way more equal.
If you win a premier tournament, you deserve it.
About win-rate from tournaments, again, you have players with different skill level. But actually that is common with top of GM anyway.
Let’s take Korean tournament into account. Someone mentioned that on KR server there are ~3 top players each race (that’s an assumption). That gives 9 players out of 16 in some round. All other players are “league” below.
There could be a situation, due to pure probability (if lower players database is medium size), that remaining 7 players would be Zerg.
The 7 players are “easy wins”, and if are all of the same race, it can influence tournaments win-ratio. (Note: I am taking about theoritical results, in reality it may look better/worse)
Even if you have an infinite amount of such tournaments, top 9 players are still the same and still take “free wins”.
Example from EU: Reynor, Serral and Clem dominate almost everything they attend. There is big gap in skill between those 3 and ShowTimE, MaNa, HeroMarine (…).
That could fake win-ratios as well, for there is no Protoss that could match 3 players mentioned before.
So clearly Semi-Finals, and maybe Round of 8 win-ratios will not properly represent strength of races, even if you take a lot of tournaments into account.
Part 2. Balance.
For me balance is equal tools, or opportunities in a match, not equal results.
And top level games are very difficult to assess who actually plays better/easier race or something like that.
Sometimes a small mistake may cost you a game. Sometimes it may change nothing.
Part 3. Offtopic.
Why people are talking about GSL only, as “highest” SC gameplay level?
I am not going to hide, that most of best players are here, but ESL Pro Tour includes world events with top EU players playing on equal level. (I am aware of ping, but it’s bad for both players at least, Elon Musk fix pls)
Isn’t data from all GM easier to work with? Serral’s 80% win-ratio floods in thousands of games.
Also if automatic Master tournaments count into Aligulac, than I have influenced win-ratio as well ^^
It shows other problems.
You can have D3 players in Master tournament, who will get absolutely crushed by D2-GM players, unfairly influencing win-ratios again. Same effect like with Premier tournaments, but on much smaller scale.
What do you think?
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It is subjective but if you believe balance should be based upon the highest skilled players in the world, that is the only way to sufficiently filter the results.
Goblin, random NA players, random oceana players, random South American players, random European players, Spear, random Korean players etc, while they may be at the top or near the top of GM on their servers, are not competitive with the top 25 or even top 50 players on Aigulac and are not going to be able to qualify let along win the premier tournaments that the top players dominate.
So, with that being said, I think Aigulac gives a pretty decent pulse on balance. You could even argue that some strategies filter UP rather than only DOWN. (Pros adopting strategies that are originated by an amateur/low ranking player). But the sad fact of the matter is that the vast majority of games it takes into account involve players that are not in the top 50 players in the world and thus their games are not indicative of balance at the top of the SC2 scene.
Regardless, both Aigulac and recent premier tournament results have shown the game being very balanced especially from a historical perspective. The only concerning thing is TvZ results have scewed Terran at the top level (probably due to the baneling nerfs that were meant for PvZ but disporportionately affected TvZ). Also PvZ has been tough for Toss at the highest level but the gap has closed. There is plenty of whining about TvP but at premier tournament level Terran has always done just fine versus P and even now the Aigulac numbers are shifting back to 50/50.
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At tournaments there are the most skilled people, that makes the results more reliable, Aligulac is really good to see the overall image, see if the trends indicate something suspcious, like 57% winrate over a 5 month period or something like that.
Now, tournaments, they are the way to go, however, not on the same way as when you are looking at aligulac, with tournaments you can also see the trends, the best players usually reach the later phases so looking at the ro16+ will give you very reliable data. However, the most important thing in tournaments is not only seeing the results, but seeing how they ended being like that. Having a smaller sample means you can actually start looking at the actual games, seeing the gameplay, not every games outcome is affected by imbalance, that’s why it is important VOD analisis, most of the games are won/lost because human reasons, build orders, micro/mechanics, and some of them not, that’s why we should aim to see the games, for example, a P player losing a bo3 against a Z, he loses 1 game due to open door, and another because got surrounded because he failed some forcefields, in that case, nothing about balance, the result was on the player side.
I want a protoss to win some Premier tournament, but lets be clear, if the protoss is making mistakes and they get punished, they deserve to lose, that applies to every race, what it’s not really fair is when you play the way it is supposed to play and still lose to the enemy with almost no counterplay.
There’s a reason you hide your profile. I don’t believe you.
Yeah the no-macro brainer protoss who only 2 bases all in with 80 apm that can’t do a thing when I defend his 2 pushes was better than me when he got me with the all in unscouted. Right. Sleep well my dude.
yeah right i bet this guy a toss LOL, i dont waste time playin vs toss i just cheeze them and have 70% winrate, only masochists waste time fighting that boring race
Would a pro player have lost to that 2 base all-in? No? Then you made mistakes. Want to win more? Don’t complain about balance. Fix your mistakes.
Even TY loses sometimes to blink all ins… even Maru is in trouble when DT comes and he doesn’t have scans… so yeah they kinda of lose.
Balance doesn’t effect everyone that’s a failure mentality. If you’re not at the very top you’re losing because of mistakes and just being out played. It’s 
a L2P issue.
And my point is not balance, its this fallacy of “if you lose you are worse than him”. Its far from the truth.
Sure. But either argument ultimately results in the same conclusion. Balance isn’t the primary cause of your losses. Your own need to improve is.
I did not say any of what you are talking about… if you agree with me then the real reason I can be losing games is not my fault alone, so the OP is wrong. I didn’t even bring balance to the table, you did.