I didn’t miss it, but it’s not saying anything.
Each period is roughly 600 games per match up which means a 6 game swing moves the needle by 1%. At HSC last month Serral and Reynor were 10-5 and 8-4 in TvZ, which means about a 5 game swing in the match up. That would be 295-305 making the winrate 49.1% if everything else is even. So two players from one tournament alone impact the period by 1%.
Your made up numbers in your second response are irrelevant.
Please provide a single example of a number I made up. Let me demonstrate.
Now, this is a made up number. As proof let me just list here the number of games per month per macthup for the data set I used (aligulac) over the last 5 months:
Month / TvP / PvZ / TvZ
November / 1016 / 1324 / 1037
October / 824 / 1317 / 878
September / 979 / 1314 / 1110
August / 1095 / 1467 / 1426
July / 1284 / 1795 / 1361
Average: 1295 / 1443 / 1162
Your relative error: 53% / 58% / 48%
So your estimation was off by roughly 50% for every matchup and my numbers are made up? I’ll ask again: do you have a working brain?! Don’t bother answering, I see no point in talking to you as long as you keep this attitude of complete disregard for facts and inability to comprehend basic elementary school arithmetic.
Do you know how to read? I said per period, which is 2 weeks on Aligulac, not a month.
A 6 game swing makes a difference of 1% in a period on average, which means top players like Serral and Reynor can make the swing themselves.
You honestly sound like a 12 year old having an argument during recess.
Again, a top pro player on average plays roughly 100 games per matchup per year (and that’s a very generous upper bound on average). Multiplying by 3 years we get 300 games. The average winrates were calculated for ~36000 games per matchup.
Let me help your argument by just assuming Serral and Reynor had 70% winrate in every non-mirror matchup since 2017 (which is a ridiculous assumption for many reasons but nevertheless). Let’s choose a matchup and denote by W the total number of games won by Zerg in that matchup.
We can write W = S + V where S is the number of games won by Serral and Reynor (by assumption roughly 600*0.7 = 420) and V is the number of games won by the rest. We can estimate W for every matchup:
PvZ: W ~ 0.539 * 36000=19404
TvZ: W ~ 0.532 * 36000 = 19152
We calculate V and get:
PvZ: V = W-S = 19404 - 420 = 18984
TvZ: V = W-S = 19152 - 420 = 18732
So the winrate of Zerg players excluding Serral and Reynor is:
ZvP: [18984/(36000 - 600)]*100% = 53.7%
ZvT: [18732/(36000 - 600)]*100% = 53%
And the original winrates:
ZvP: 53.9%
ZvT: 53.2%
Conclusion: Assuming there are 2 Zerg players which are constantly at a 70% winrate in both non-mirror matchups the difference between the average winrate calculated with or without these 2 exceptional players will be ~0.2% for both matchups. Which absolutely doesn’t account for a consistent 3-5% bias in winrates.
And this assumption is coming from where? Serral would have significantly more games played in the last couple years than any other player.
This is not an assumption, it’s a fact about the data I used. Jesus christ everything is on aligulac. Do I have to do everything for you?
Serral played 105 games vP and 112 games vT in 11/2018-11/2019. He played 87 vT and 114 vP in 11/2017-11/2018. You can just go and double check me on everything I say. It’s literally all written there.
xD thats not how chrono works lol it doesnt send you back in time to the start of the game
I’m going to pull the actual data and see how much certain players influence it. Better than making assumptions.
I’m glad you finally realized that to make the data reflect your personal opinion you have to tamper and manipulate it yourself rather than lazily asking for someone else to do it for you. Eagerly awaiting to see what elaborate misinterpretation you come up with to make the data fit your agenda. Still great step in the right direction!
You might want to think about this superiority complex you have and how it distorts your interpretation of things.
Again, irrelevant. Who’s alt are you? You can’t be this dense.
You remember “Shaz?” From the old forums? That’s him.
Zergs on these forums are an absolute plague. They have been winning for TWO YEARS and crying and moaning the entire time. It’s insane. And they’re actually stupid enough to say that all these win rates are “skill.”
Notice, this spaz keeps making these idiotic claims that he could EASILY prove, but he doesn’t present the data. He just makes these claims. In fact, I’ve challenged this spaz to PROVE HIS ARGUMENT, but he refuses to do so.
FACT. Zerg won 60% of matches in 2019 when they went up against Terrans and Protoss in Tournaments. Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been thrown away in RIGGED GAMES because Zerg is busted.
FINALLY! I’ve been challenging you to do so for a couple days now, you spaz. DO IT.
PS - Don’t worry, spaz. I will be checking your work… You will be held accountable. I’ve already got the data pulled out. I know what the answer is. I doubt you have the moral fortitude to admit the truth when you find it.
PPS - If you’re going to “correct for Serral and Reynor”, remember, matches that they LOST don’t count, either. If you’re going to adjust the data, games like where Serral lost to Stats in the Ro16 in Assembly Summer 2019 don’t count AT ALL. When you correct for Serral and Reynor, ALL of their games vanish. Not just the ones where they won, you spaz.
I probably left the old forums before Shaz. It just blows my mind that they’d take very specific things said and then warp them into stuff I didn’t say. That’s so dumb lol.
all i saw in this forum for the past 2 years was whinethread over whinethread about literally every zerg unit.
im really curious. is that some kind of tourette you have? because in every 2nd sentence, you seem to need to use that word spaz. cant you talk without insulting other people? i mean, im totally fine with it, if that would be tourette.
I don’t think this is true. Protoss and zerg are even up to 2 bases full saturation. Once zerg takes its third and certainly by the time they get a 4th, they explode. I can show you replays where I start a 3rd base at 4 mins, kill 20+ workers with oracles and at 5:30 we are neck and neck in workers.
In any PVZ thats competitive, zerg will always be up in total supply and up in workers up till about 8 mins. Usually zerg will be up in army supply too.
In any PVT thats competitive, protoss will be up in workers by a small handful but always down in total supply and army size (terran units are cheaper across the board). You can watch any random pro game and those dynamics will generally be at play.
This place really is an eco chamber for morons who want to whine about Zerg. A place where plat league players think they know what they’re talking about.
I admire your optimism that there’s a point in talking with Zergboi loons who think the current game is balanced.
I don’t care, stop tagging me.