Following up on this comment. A proportion sampling distribution is the distribution of a series of samples. That’s not what we are doing here. Blizzard’s tournament stats are adjusted for Elo, which is an aggregate of every game played. That’s not a sparse sampling of games, it’s literally every game. The Aligulac win-rates are also a complete list of every competitive pro game played. It’s not a sample, it’s a population, so the use of a sampling distribution is wrong.
A sampling distribution is the distribution of a series of averages, which because they are, in and of themselves, averages of a sample, will result in lower variance than the parent population. It’s very simple from the math:
s2 = P(1.0 - P) / n = 0.025
where
P=0.5, n=10
Compared to what it should actually be:
s2 = P(1.0 - P) * n = 62,500
where
P=0.5, n=250,000
You are basing your confidence calculations on a completely bogus variance. The maximum variance of a binomial distribution is N / 4 which in this case is 62,500 games. The acceptable tolerance Blizzard has set is +/- 5% which in this case is +/- 12,500 games which is a fifth of the maximum variance (0.25 / 0.05 = 5).
re-read the +/- 5% post by blizzard, its clearly and repeatedly talking about win-rates and nothing to do with elo ratings. Win rates in any given day/time period are clearly a sample proportion with the goal of estimating the true winrate.
Blizzard have said. 5% is ok. For winrate of whole region. For one day. Batz is wrong. About 250k. Because that is whole ladder. And not one region. One region is only 80k. But he is right. That 17k is less than sample of blizzard. And if 5% varieties is ok on bigger sample. 5% is ok for smaller.
What’s an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the ‘true’ win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill
This bird. Can not read. But can quote math of distribution? Some things. Do not add up…
How can poster. Which quote of math distribution. Cannot read? And when question of it. Complaints of alt… I am smarter than batz. Because I do not fall for lie… you are troll…
you have the very specific misunderstanding that ELO is an adjusted win percentage, which is the same specific misunderstanding that only Batz has ever made on this forum. Its very very obvious that you are an alt account.
Classic cheesecake. Face-plants in the debate then distracts with red herrings. Your trolling is far too predictable, kiddo. You lost a debate to bigturkey, who doesn’t even have proper grammar. Let the gravity of that sink in.
Same to you. And yea I was busy moving out of the leftist disaster known as NYC. It’s my hometown and I’ve lived there for 30 years and I’ve never seen anything like the dumpster fire it is right now. I knew it was coming eventually, as that’s what chronic leftism eventually leads to, but I didnt think this quickly. You really can’t underestimate them and do always have to be ready.
And yea it seems they won’t rest until Premier event wins come rolling through. It’s concerning, from a game balance point of view, to think how much more this can go on for when one considers the fact that more Protoss skill at the absolute highest level is soon to be lost in the form of Stats, and I believe Zest, who have to serve in the military soon.
How are you capable of constantly digging your own grave in debates?
You accuse Batz of cherry picking data (he clearly doesn’t) and then incessantly rely on some of the most cherry picked data you can find (premier tournament wins in a certain year) as the crux of most of your arguments. LOL
What’s even more interesting is that the TvP win-rates vary depending on Korean vs Foreigner. It’s a pretty strong argument that foreign terrans are much stronger players than foreign Protoss. That is, if you contrast how foreign terrans do in TvP vs how Koreans do in TvP. I go in more detail here:
If blizzard is going to buff Protoss to where they are winning premier events from a skill deficit, then it’s going to wreak absolute havoc for balance in general.
Congrats on the move. What was the final straw?
I’ve read that people are fleeing NYC/Cali for places like Texas. There is a lot of concern that they will bring their voting practices with them and turn Texas into Cali 2.0. I suppose a lot of voters don’t pay attention to cause and effect enough to realize that they can’t vote for certain things without causing the problems that they hate. It’s like all the college kids with a mountain of school debt and no job. It is an almost identical situation to the housing bubble burst in 2008. The government forced banks to give out low interest loans to high risk individuals. Now the government dished out low interest loans to high risk individuals who got worthless degrees and can’t pay them back. These idiots keep voting for the same mistakes over and over again, all while blaming the failures of “capitalism”. Handing out low risk loans is actually much closer to socialism and it highlights why socialism doesn’t work.
By the way, did I tell you that my other account was banned? It’s a funny story. A kid made a thread complaining about what Blizzard is doing to fight climate change. I told him to get a job working in the green energy sector and then he can not only help save the planet, but can make money while doing so. My account was given a suspension for that comment. I then appealed to the mods and asked them if they were anti-climate science. They upped the ban to 1000 years.