Reality check: Premier tournament win-rates edition

General Discussion
1

Introduction:

Listed below are the win-rates from every game played in every premier event in 2020. For transparency, I have also provided a complete list of every event from which this data has been extracted, and can also provide a list of every game played. If I have missed an event, please kindly point it out and I will add it.

Tournament list: https://pastebin.com/SG4gyYd9

Conclusions:

1. Most premier events are absolutely not representative of the highest skill level. In the Korean vs Foreigner tab below, Koreans have 60-70% win-rates. Any tournament without Koreans cannot be considered to be the highest skill level. This obliterates claims that premier tournaments are the golden standard of balance because many of them are region-locked and thus Koreans can’t participate and are thus not representative of the highest skill level.

2. Every matchup is balanced except for TvP, which corroborates the findings from this thread.

3. The highest skill matches (aka Korean vs Korean) show a 58% win-rate in PvT. If you assume that skill representation is equal amongst the win-rate, and assume that every skill bracket has equal representation in number of games played, this win-rate would suggest that Protoss is overpowered against Terran.

All vs All:

    Terran vs Terran: 0.500000 (1402)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.445863 (1958)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.490471 (1784)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.559638 (1987)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (2376)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.472342 (2079)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.518883 (1827)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.527658 (2079)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (1920)

Foreigner vs Foreigner

    Terran vs Terran: 0.494624 (837)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.454243 (1202)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.473328 (1181)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.550082 (1218)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (1602)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.483193 (1428)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.532110 (1199)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.516807 (1428)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (1502)

Foreigner vs Korean

    Terran vs Terran: 0.443609 (133)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.278912 (147)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.234694 (98)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.357143 (84)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.336634 (101)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.298701 (77)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.369048 (168)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.507463 (134)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.379310 (87)

Korean vs Foreigner

    Terran vs Terran: 0.619565 (92)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.632911 (79)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.638554 (166)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.690476 (126)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.663366 (101)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.492537 (134)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.690141 (71)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.701299 (77)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.620690 (87)

Korean vs Korean

    Terran vs Terran: 0.501247 (401)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.425760 (559)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.506667 (375)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.578761 (565)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (572)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.461364 (440)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.511568 (389)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.538636 (440)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (244)
3 Likes
2

You wanna know how significant these threads are to Blizzard?

The only time terran wasn’t buffed was when you weren’t posting.

3

You’ve been vehemently harassing me as an anti-terran troll for years. What are you going to do now that I’ve posted statistics showing the only imbalanced matchup is PvT, which favors protoss?

Also, since the balance winds have shifted and Protoss is overpowered, your claim about Goba was proven 100% correct. You said he only liked me because I was anti-terran. Now that I am posting stats showing Protoss is OP, he’s no longer my friend. That makes you 1 for 2 in predictions. I suppose that’s a balanced win-rate.

1 Like
4

“harass”. That’s adorable. I say we treat eachother in a fairly equal manner.

I will say that you’re correct, but that doesn’t mean you were correct in the past.

I’m just being observant.

5

I only say what the data says. If I am correct now then I was correct back then.

6

If only it were that simple.

7

It is slightly more complex.

Batz: this is what the data says.

Crusaderking: does the data support my closely held belief that terran is underpowered?

Yes → it is valid. The person who posted it is literally a saint.
No → it is invalid. The person who posted it is hitler incarnate.

3 Likes
8

You’ve had some good data, but a lot of data has been cherry picked, etc.

9

List what data I excluded in past analyses. I’ll wait.

10

You mean your threads that have 100+ posts already doing that in the past? Already been there, done that.

11

Claims without facts to back them up are lies. It’s that simple. If something is true then you can prove it. If you refuse to then it’s because it’s false and thereby the reason you can’t prove it.

1 Like
12

I’ve already discussed past issues in past threads about said topic. I’m not digging through them.

13

Then your statement is false. In the court of batz, “something is true because I said so” is immediately tossed into the trash bin.

1 Like
14

No, it just means I’m not going through past threads lol.

15

You don’t have to. You claimed I cherry picked and for you to have known that I cherry picked you must have an instance of said cherry picking in your head. List it or forever be labelled a hearsayer.

1 Like
16

What was the other prediction?

17

Batz is an anti-terran troll.
Goba loves batz because he is an anti-terran troll.

18

I bet Goba will come in this thread saying something along the lines of:

“I’m glad the terran slayer king is back, even if we disagree on PvT I respect Batz opinion. He will always be the smartest poster here”.

19

He is calling these statistics “garbage” and insulting me by saying a person who is a serial cherry picker is my equal/nemesis:

20

Yea, that’s a little bit shocking tbh. The day Goba turned on Batz is when I question my own existence. “I think therefore I am” keeps me comfort.