Reality check: Premier tournament win-rates edition

Korean Terrans have over a 50% winrate in TvT? My god is Terran imba.

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That explains the whole circle of minions around him on daily basis.

So funny that some random (former) GM of avilo kind and mindset gets praised so much , like heā€™s some kind of champion. Clearly the forum noobs havent played real good players and they praise the first such they meet as some SC2 godā€¦ hilarious xD

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Batz, I already did this topic and I actually provided my raw data:

h ttps://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/sc2/t/in-premier-tournaments-is-protoss-imba-the-numbers/16565

Turns out PvT is balanced and PvZ is somewhere around 45/55 Zerg favored. Actually even more Zerg favored if you only look at premier tournaments with Korean participation.

The thread link you posted gives me a 404 broken link error and the tournament list doesnā€™t actually contain raw data as far as I can tell. Why are you making data when Aigulac and TL already have this data? Could it be you are manipulating the data? I dont see any other reason for you to make your own ā€œdatabaseā€ when the data is already readily available on two very well run sites that are the actual source for SC2 information.

Just to make an observation. I have yet to see anyone on these forums be truly unbiased using data.

Itā€™s obvious that protoss is doing better in PvT. Itā€™s obvious that zerg is doing better than protoss in ZvP.

No one changes their convictions regarding their perspective due to their top race.

This thread in a nutshell:

Goba likes protoss, therefore protoss isnā€™t OP right now vs terran
Batz Likes zerg, therefore zerg has never been OP
Friendlytoss like protoss, therefore protoss isnā€™t OP right now vs terran
Beserk likes zerg, therefore zerg has never been OP

Actually, I think PvT is slightly Protoss favored. Even more so at below the top professional level. I was just pointing out, at the absolutely top for this year, Terran has done well even versus Protoss in top tournaments.

But Neeb has looked like crap. Only showtime in the foreign scene is competitive. And Classic and (not as impactful) Hero left. So that explains partially Prtoss underperformance.

I actually think the game is currently in one of its most balanced spots in itā€™s history and have said as much many times.

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Unfortunately, Blizzard hasnā€™t done a good enough job at balancing the game so that the top players and players around GM are balanced (which can be done).

What blizzard does, is balance the game so that 3-4 terrans are really the only players able to beat the top protoss players and the entire rest of the terran base is in a stasis with having issues vs. protoss.

It is possible to balance the game so that top tier players and just regularly good players have equal balance.

XD XD XD

Blizzard have sacrificed. The balance of gm. For the balance of tournamentsā€¦ that is how. Rate of winning is equal. In tournamentsā€¦ but gm is 42% optossā€¦

CrusaderKing: I have a pathological inability to understand that exceptions donā€™t define trends, which is why I have to inform each and every one of my patients that, due to the minor bump on their skin, they have terminal cancer.

Your analysis is about a month old at this point, and itā€™s based on Liquipedia which is, unfortunately, quite inconsistent / incomplete. The analysis in this thread is computed by a computer script, from Aligulacā€™s database of matches. Itā€™s much more up to date, comprehensive, and has a much lower probability of error.

Yes it was an analysis that showed Protoss have actually won the majority of tournaments in 2020, which is in stark contradiction to the incessant forum whine which claims PvZ is the most broken matchup. The PPP mass-reported the thread for ā€œharassmentā€ and it was removed (LOL).

Aligulac has all the pro data, but itā€™s not filtered by premier events. People on the Battle.net forums have been crying that Protoss is underpowered because they canā€™t win premier events, and there have been a number of threads that have claimed win-rates in premier events show zerg is overpowered, too. All those claims are false as the data actually shows. Cherry pickers selected tournaments to fit their narratives, and who wins the tournaments have nothing to do with balance since win-rates from inside those tournaments are radically different from the final outcome of the tournament(s).

If Premier tournament win-rates are your golden standard of balance, then all matchups are balanced except PvT which favors protoss.

Another purpose of this thread was to evaluate the ā€œpremier tournaments have the highest skill representationā€ claim, which is quite obviously false. Some of them have some of the lowest skill representation of any tournaments. Most premier events arenā€™t anywhere near a typical weekly cupā€™s skill representation (which are usually packed with top koreans). The way I showed this was by splitting win-rates by region, which showed koreans have 70%ish win-rates vs foreigners, thus proving any region locked event canā€™t be classified as ā€œhighest skill representationā€ since koreans arenā€™t even allowed in the tournament. A regional win-rate analysis like this was not available on Aligulac or any other place that I was aware of.

Sorry I just dont believe you. I can look up the same tournaments on Aigulac and they give me the same numbers. Yes, my topic might be almost a month old but I would happily crunch the numbers except if they come out Zerg favored again, itā€™s not going to convince you.

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There is no belief element in this equation. Facts are facts. If you want the facts, all you have to do is ask for them.

Okā€¦ where can I look at your raw data? I see just a bunch of outputs. that is why I am very careful to post each bit of raw data, even if it makes the post long.

http://www.sharecsv.com/s/eafc321c9f974513688ab731dcd98f25/MatchList.csv

Listed is every game played in every premier event of 2020, including participant names, races played, and dates of the games. Itā€™s in CSV format, which is easy to load into a spreadsheet editor of your choice.

Got it. Well i found the problem.

It is full of qualifier rounds that really dont mean ****. The names on here range from not even close to getting to a GSL RO16 to WHO?

Noregret
origin
bubble
TRUE
Jimrising
Simner
TheZergLord
Dastan
Arctur
KingCobra
control
Arai
SortOf
Rookie
Xigua
Jieshi
Cyan
Coffee
Nerazim
PandaBearMe
Flood
Vindicta
GogojOey
god830
Ocschos
Quantel
LiquidFluid
Epic
Smarty
PrintSC
DisReSpeCT
MilkiCow
Tzuyuā€¦

and probably about 20 more just in the first 100 records but you get my point. Could be even more if you include arguable ones like Bly but I tried to give European players and players that are fringe GSL players BoD.

The point is, when you include the qualifiers with a bunch of players with no hope of winning the tournamentā€¦ it is no longer premier tournament results. It is more games played in qualifiers which dwarfs the games actually played in the RO32+ of the premier tournament.

You will notice in my topic I only sited main event or ā€œCode Sā€ results even when the numbers from using the larger pool were more favorable to my overall argument

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The results are the same with and without the qualifiers. Try again, mr cherry picker. I provided the data for you so that you could double check it as you claimed, not so that you could make sweeping judgements from a 3 second glance.

All vs All

Terran vs Terran: 0.500000 (338)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.490534 (581)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.504762 (525)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.509466 (581)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (652)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.463122 (583)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.495238 (525)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.536878 (583)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (504)

Foreigner vs Foreigner

Terran vs Terran: 0.500000 (190)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.481481 (324)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.482650 (317)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.518519 (324)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (452)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.472067 (358)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.517350 (317)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.527933 (358)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (368)

Foreigner vs Korean

Terran vs Terran: 0.185185 (27)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.400000 (45)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.444444 (27)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.142857 (21)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.291667 (24)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.294118 (17)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.514286 (70)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.569444 (72)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.382353 (34)

Korean vs Foreigner

Terran vs Terran: 0.814815 (27)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.857143 (21)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.485714 (70)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.600000 (45)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.708333 (24)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.430556 (72)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.555556 (27)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.705882 (17)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.617647 (34)

Korean vs Korean

Terran vs Terran: 0.500000 (94)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.486911 (191)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.594595 (111)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.513089 (191)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (152)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.477941 (136)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.405405 (111)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.522059 (136)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (68)

You might want to, you know, actually check the data before you say things that obliterate your reputation. Youā€™ve now shown that you are on the hunt for the first, most obvious thing that you can shoe-horn to fitting your narrative, which permanently taints anything you have to say on the subject.

If you smell crap everywhere you go, check your own shoes. Itā€™s more likely that you stepped in some crap than that every single person you encounter stepped in crap.

Ya, because zerg has never been OP ever. Especially not 2019.

Those hyperbolic words are yours, not mine. I challenge you to find even a single quote from my post history where I claim what you are saying Iā€™ve claimed. You wonā€™t because you canā€™t because it never happened. If you donā€™t see anyone who is being unbiased, itā€™s you who is biased. There are plenty of people on the forums who arenā€™t biased trolls - people who set their opinions to what the facts say, who use consistent logic, and who are willing to change their opinion when the facts say to do so. Berzerk is an obvious example, but youā€™ve already denounced him as biased (LOL). Please donā€™t blame society for your own sins. If you smell crap everywhere you go, check your own shoes first.

The conversation weā€™ve had before is:

Me: Has zerg ever been OP
Batz: Yes, it has
Me: when?
Batz: ā€¦

I already showed you what the data shows for the tournaments. NOT including the qualifiers. Because you included the qualifier data in your numbers, your data is full of fringe players that are not competitive at the highest level. Iā€™m sure most of the forum would agree with me over you on this matter. There are literally tens if not 100+ players that are fringe or are completely unheard of in the data. You may as well just have cited the Aigulac balance numbers because your raw data does not reflect the highest level of SC2 play.

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