Reality check: Premier tournament win-rates edition

[ZtAbhEt-1813]

You should see how Goba reacts to a dude called BigTurkey:

@BabaYaga-13624

Don you know that in extreme cases upvoting someone is equivalent to a sarcastic remark? Your post was as garbage as it can be, an upvote from him is just that:
see below big

[CrusaderKing-1612]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

You should see how Goba reacts to a dude called BigTurkey:

I guess I haven’t been on the forums as much as I thought I’ve been. I’m sure everyone will make up and things will go back to normal soon enough. The forum eco-system relies on it.

[Trias-2243]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

All vs All:

    Terran vs Terran: 0.500000 (1402)
    Terran vs Protoss: 0.445863 (1958)
    Terran vs Zerg: 0.490471 (1784)
    Protoss vs Terran: 0.559638 (1987)
    Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (2376)
    Protoss vs Zerg: 0.472342 (2079)
    Zerg vs Terran: 0.518883 (1827)
    Zerg vs Protoss: 0.527658 (2079)
    Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (1920)

One should notice :
— that you’ve changed your methods for the whole 2020 tournaments, which took in account victories only. One can only hope this was a choice right from the start, and not a per protocole decision.
— That the data is now presented raw, and with several sub-analysis which may muddy the waters for some inattentive readers.

Now if I do read correctly, and assuming the data is exhaustive, we’ve got :

 TvZ 49.0%
 PvZ 47,2% 
 PvT 55,9%

So your conclusion that :

@ZtAbhEt-1813

2. Every matchup is balanced except for TvP, which corroborates the findings from this thread.

Seems a bit quick, as it supposes that everything less than 5% is balanced, which is a daring assumption considering the sample sizes are even bigger than Aligulac’s monthly winrates (implying that smaller deltas have even greater signification), where ±1% already could mean something (for example the PvT you consider imbalanced, while varying, has often been around 51%). Admitting that 50±0.5% (which is what I consider) or even 50±1% is balanced, we’d rather have TvZ close to balance, PvZ Zerg favored, and PvT Protoss favored.

So while your data seems correct, your interpretation seems more of your own.

[lllIlIlIlIl-1983]

@Trias-2243

Seems a bit quick, as it supposes that everything less than 5% is balanced

Blizzard has balanced based on samples of tens of thousands of games and their threshold was +/- 5%. In other words, it is not his metric but rather Blizzards.

[Trias-2243]

@lllIlIlIlIl-1983

Blizzard has balanced based on samples of tens of thousands of games and their threshold was +/- 5%. In other words, it is not his metric but rather Blizzards.

So the broken grammar is gone. Remarkable that your syntax does improve upon responding quickly.

However :

• This is Aligulac’s database, not Blizzard’s. So standards may differ.
• Such claim would require a source, where the blue ones explicitely claim that an SC2 Aligulac sized sample is considered balanced at ±5%. I don’t believe they ever wrote such thing, but if I am mistaken it should be easy to provide us with a direct quote.
• That “±5% = balanced” comes with a contradiction, assuming that PvT (which since LotV was most of the time around 50.5 and 52%) would be imbalanced, while PvZ (which was between 41% and 48% for the most time) would be balanced. So there’s something which doesn’t add up with that ±5% cutoff.

[lllIlIlIlIl-1983]

Translation software does the best. That it can do. And sometimes that is very good. And most times. I do not bother to use it. So response takes longer. And you speak total nonsense. If blizzard is ok. With using of 55% winrate. Then it is fine in here.

[ZtAbhEt-1813]

You tell him, big

[ZtAbhEt-1813]

If you have an issue with the 5% balance threshold then you should contact Blizzard. In the past they have stated 5% as an acceptable deviation and that’s the precedent I am using here. If I were doing a balance analysis, I wouldn’t even be using win-rates. This is entirely using other peoples’ methods to show that forum whiners are wrong in a way that can’t be blamed on me, so don’t even try making this about me.

[lllIlIlIlIl-1983]

I have been speaking. Of overpowered of the protoss. For quite some time… the statistic you share. Will shut the mouth of nonsense speakers. For some time…

[Trias-2243]

@lllIlIlIlIl-1983

Translation software does the best. That it can do. And sometimes that is very good. And most times. I do not bother to use it. So response takes longer.

That is strange. Because you suggest. That the first post was grammatically corrected. While the “Blizzards”. Instead of “Blizzard’s”. On the contrary, hints it wasn’t. One may wonder. If adding punctuation. Isn’t what make your posts longer. Usually.

Anyway, if you’re having fun that way, who cares ? Better than trolling little bronzes 3, if you ask me.

@ZtAbhEt-1813

If you have an issue with the 5% balance threshold then you should contact Blizzard. In the past they have stated 5% as an acceptable deviation and that’s the precedent I am using here.

The proposition that ±5% winrate is acceptable differs from ± 5% is perfect balance. “As bad as acceptable” ≠ “good”.
Additionally, that would contradict what the devs recently said as they mentioned the PvZ winrates as not durably meeting the target while they always have been within 47 and 49.4% within the few months preceding August’s balance update.

Ultimately though, the last patch has not produced the lasting impact to ZvP winrates that we had hoped, and most of the feedback we currently receive about this matchup from professional-level Protoss players remains similar to what we had received before, just to a slightly lesser degree.

Furthermore, that would also mean that during February till august, the game has been perfectly balanced. So it wouldn’t make sense for the devs to make balance adjustments if that was the case.

So if this isn’t lowkey trolling, I’m sure you won’t mind at sourcing the precise reference of the devs saying ±5% is balanced ?

@ZtAbhEt-1813

If I were doing a balance analysis, I wouldn’t even be using win-rates. This is entirely using other peoples’ methods to show that forum whiners are wrong in a way that can’t be blamed on me, so don’t even try making this about me.

It goes without saying that with 51% ZvT and 53% ZvP winrates wouldn’t be your preferred tool when talking about balance, since those would imply Zerg is the only race with no weak match-up.
The devs however do, as quoted just above. And after all, aren’t you the one who provided us with this data ?

[thrasher-1486]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

showing Protoss is OP, he’s no longer my friend

Mean while in the Goba/tehbatz rehabilitation centre https://youtu.be/KNZH-emehxA?t=115

[thrasher-1486]

I have present for big bird just press accept…

[Ðióġeŋex-2112]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

Any tournament without Koreans cannot be considered to be the highest skill level.

That would be true in the past during Kespa, but now that time is over. See Aligulac top 10, there are 4 foreigners of 10. Check top 50 Aligulac and you will see a lot of foreigners. Koreans used to be gods compared to foreignes, but now they got worse and foreigners got better.

[BabaYaga-13624]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

Also, since the balance winds have shifted and Protoss is overpowered, your claim about Goba was proven 100% correct. You said he only liked me because I was anti-terran. Now that I am posting stats showing Protoss is OP, he’s no longer my friend. That makes you 1 for 2 in predictions. I suppose that’s a balanced win-rate.

Nah, my sentiment’s haven’t changed just because we happen to strongly disagree on one thing. I am not Trump. On the other hand i also have high regard even for other posters that are not exactly Protoss.
It would be childish to use game-race criteria in selecting your friends.

[BabaYaga-13624]

@ZtAbhEt-1813

You should see how Goba reacts to a dude called BigTurkey:

@BabaYaga-13624

Don you know that in extreme cases upvoting someone is equivalent to a sarcastic remark? Your post was as garbage as it can be, an upvote from him is just that:
see below big

On that you can be sure that i never, i say never have used that tactic on You. All in all i have used that with 2-3 demented posters in the middle of the meltdown…

[BabaYaga-13624]

@Trias-2243

So the broken grammar is gone. Remarkable that your syntax does improve upon responding quickly.

[thrasher-1486]

So whats with the name tehbats? Did you get inspiration from tenet?

[lllIlIlIlIl-1983]

@Ðióġeŋex-2112

That would be true in the past during Kespa, but now that time is over

Korean has between. 60 and 70% rate of winning. Against the foreigners. But you say the foreigner is equal? Total nonsense… premium event does not have highest skill level. Forum assumptions total nonsense…

[lllIlIlIlIl-1983]

@Trias-2243

The proposition that ±5% winrate is acceptable differs from ± 5% is perfect balance . “As bad as acceptable” ≠ “good”.

What nonsense speaker. Does not understand. Is rate of winning will change. On its own. Even if game is balanced… 5% tolerance is a number. That balanced rate of winning will change. Even though it is balance… if rate of wins. Is less than 5%. You can not say. If it is balance. Or normal change of winning.

[Trias-2243]

.

@lllIlIlIlIl-1983

What nonsense speaker. Does not understand. Is rate of winning will change. On its own. Even if game is balanced… 5% tolerance is a number. That balanced rate of winning will change. Even though it is balance… if rate of wins. Is less than 5%. You can not say. If it is balance. Or normal change of winning.

Well I could tell for sure, but that’s apparently not your case.

What I can also tell for sure it’s that’s it’s been more than three posts where I’ve been asking you to source where the devs said ±5% was well balanced, and that aside from writing nonsense speaker. does not understand you’ve still failed to deliver that proof.