Did you scale for the base rate? The odds for zerg to win a tournament is a product of zergs winrates and how many zerg players that are in the tournament. The number of tournaments that zerg has won is meaningless until you adjust for the number of players in a tournament.
Chances =/= Reality.
Zerg has won 9 premier tournaments and Terran has only won 3.
How is Zerg winning 3x tournaments than Terran somehow meaning that Terran has more of a chance to win?
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A sample size of 12 has no meaning.
You mean, did I try and modify the perception of the data to make it say something other than what it does? No, I didnāt. Iāll leave that to you.
Ok, so you admit that you donāt understand basic math.
Hey its that rabiddrone guy. You know there are some russian companies that will pay you good money to argue on the internet all day? You could be getting paid 10 rubles an hour right now.
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You didnāt seem to have any problems with that in this thread: Battle.net votes 18-4 that Terran is the easiest race
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Nah, just sitting here in one of my rentals as the carpet guy puts in new carpet. I do rent a shop to some people from Russia, though.
Because itās a thread that was designed to mock the crybabies and the small sample was part of that.
Funny how much of a fight you were putting up over its relevance then.
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If you canāt understand basic math, thereās nothing I can do to help you. The number of players in a tournament affects the odds of winning, and if you canāt agree on something basic like that then there is no way we can talk about more complex subjects like probability distributions. If there is 1 zerg out of 100, the odds that zerg will win is very different from 99 out of 100. This is very basic math.
Ok, fine. Pretend you are correct, and Iām not understanding the basic math of this equation. Explain to me what Iām failing to understand.
So the heart of your mathematical calculation for balance is that the % of a race winning tourneys divided by the % of that race in a tourney. If the result is 1, that means the race is balanced. As the result becomes greater than 1, the race is demonstrated to be stronger than it should be, and vice versa for under one.
Am I understanding, or did I fail to grasp the basic math here?
With an adequate sample size, the skill differences will average out to zero. That means on average a 50/50 odds to advance in a round. A round of 32 has 5 rounds. To win the tournament you have to win all 5 rounds. Using the multiplication rule in probability, the odds to win the tournament with a 50% winrate is 0.5^5 = 3.125% = 1 / 32. With a 50% winrate, 1 player in the round of 32 will have a 3.125% chance to win. This is what to expect given a large sample.
In the actual data, Terrans have a >3.125% odds to win, zerg has =3.125% odds to win, and protoss have <3.125%. Collectively, all players have a =3.125% chance to win as this model predicts.
Hey man, you do you. If you ever want to branch out from trolling the forums tho i got some good phone games to recommend. Better way to pass time imo
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I am not so simple-minded as to enjoy most games, phone games in particular. Sc2 is the only game I really play, and even then itās far too easy. 6.1k mmr while playing a tenth as much as people of a similar rank.
What about chess, go, etc? Not a fan of turn based?
Yes, I did. You can find the base rate here:
https: //www. rankedftw. com/stats/races/1v1/#v=2&r=-2&l=-2
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Ladder statistics donāt predict tournament outcomes because not everyone on the ladder is participating in the tournament.
Here is what I fail to get with the equation. If 32 tournaments occur and each one has 30/32 Terran, 1/32 Zerg, & 1/32 Protoss, and Terran win 30 of these tournaments, Zerg wins 1, & Protoss wins 1, your equation would determine this to be perfect balance (as all things should be!).
To compensate for this I (in my redo of your equation) factored in general population of ladder players. After all if only 33% of the population was Terran, then my equation would point out that āNo, this isnāt balanced. Terran should not be winning 93.75% of the tournamentsā.
Maybe I missed something. If there is some basic mathematics concept that ties it all together and makes your equation correct, please politely let me know. Otherwise, why would it determine that completely Terran dominated scenerio to be balanced?
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Far too simple and boring.