Does anyone have the raw numbers for top level tournament winrates and number of players that represent each race in some time frame between September 2020 and present time? Accurate and sourced. Or winrates for players strictly above 6k MMR?
Edit: only legitimate thing I have seen so far from the “opposition” is Aligulac’s misc/balance web page. I don’t see anything crazy quite frankly - numbers peak, but there is no insanely outstanding indication that Protoss is broken.
Also Dallarian seems to have put in some good and honest work otherwise. Shout out to him.
Tournaments: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Premier_Tournaments
You have to calculate winrates yourself, in timeframe that interests you.
For race representation (numerical and % data across all leagues) I used to use rankedftw, but now the site is not working, so can’t help with that one. https://www.rankedftw.com/stats/races/1v1/#v=2&r=-2&l=-2
This website I used for win-ratios across leagues. https://burnysc2.github.io/MMR-Ranges/
For win-ratios strictly above 6k MMR you’d probably have to calculate it by hand on aligulac, or find better source.
You’ve got ladder distributions and 100% of the win rates and 100% of the tournament data… What more could you need? You want a professional Protoss player to come out just TELL you Protoss is favored at every stage of the game and that he deserved to win less money? Because that’s just straight not going to happen
These are average win-rates, which include TvT, PvP and ZvZ. PvP will drag down the insane Protoss win-rate in PvZ, and ZvZ will drag up the low ZvP win-rate.
If you account for the mirror games (subtracting them from the win-rate), you get the following win-rates in GM:
P: 62%
T: 60%
Z: 56%
These numbers are calculated by plugging the number of mirror matchup wins/losses and the total win-rate into this equation, then simplifying:
You came to the conclusion that APEtoss is balanced as they win 4x the tournaments and have a 62% win-rate (compared to 56% for Zerg) in Grandmaster, while having 2x the GM representation.
In other words, there is no possible way you could have come to the wrong conclusion, but you still did. Protoss overperforms in EVERY statistic well beyond any margins for error. GM alone has a P value less than 0.000001. Yet somehow you found and promoted the wrong conclusion. You are so far off it begs the question if you are just a troll spamming blatant lies.
But here you are blasting ME for not doing stuff properly, even though my models have made MYRIADS of accurate predictions including mapping Aligulac pro level performance to GM win-rates, as well as perfectly predicting the advancement of players in Code S.
Just by the most recent glance July 2021
TvZ: 54.25%
PvZ: 53.8%
PvT: 50.83%
Any rational T/Z players here? I should rename the title of my post. I put in some specific directions and you gave me a single website link. So let me get this straight - while there are a few peaks in the chart, for the most part, it’s relatively balanced. Nothing too crazy. I see the numbers very clearly and nothing stands out to me as ridiculous. Why don’t you point to me where you see something that genuinely looks really off in the big picture?
You know, if I took that short time frame of winrates, particularly between TvZ, it would look like Terran is OP. So I guess that means we nerf Terran right? Right?
Probably,attention span is shortening.I have heard that instagram wanted to move into the short videos thing. I see no problems when I watch YT on the computer, but as soon as I watch something on the phone it redirects me to YT app and then there is some big section with short videos tik tok style.
Yeah I don’t see any problem with these numbers. Maybe a slight favor toward toss but not sure it’s even statistically significant or relevant.
At the end of the day the best player in the world is zerg and second best terran and the raw ladder win rates paint a compelling picture.
I don’t really care about your mirror matchup math and also take those calculations with a huge grain of salt given that GM is the league with the widest variation of mmr ranging from 5000 to 7000 players.
