Funny you should mention lying, I checked the raw data on Aligulac using just games played in PVT over the last year.
The PVT win percentage is .5180, not .5376. You were off by twice the actual distance from the 50% mean. That’s a huge miss.
As I said, best of 5 delta isn’t the same as win percentage, if your tvp is as weak as your math I see why you think toss is imba.
Yeah, I am calling BS on your claim kiddo. Here are the actual win-rates.
Foreigner vs Foreigner
Terran vs Terran: 0.499427 (9593)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.481657 (14311)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.493650 (12519)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.526445 (14672)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (19344)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.485819 (17947)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.517260 (12920)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.514181 (17947)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (14330)
Foreigner vs Korean
Terran vs Terran: 0.449224 (1418)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.291149 (1288)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.245484 (941)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.371055 (1299)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.297757 (1293)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.265957 (846)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.400739 (1083)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.382033 (1102)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.316265 (664)
Korean vs Foreigner
Terran vs Terran: 0.593842 (682)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.619048 (1302)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.593066 (1096)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.647189 (907)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.702243 (1293)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.617967 (1102)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.713781 (566)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.734043 (846)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.683735 (664)
Korean vs Korean
Terran vs Terran: 0.505185 (1350)
Terran vs Protoss: 0.450069 (2173)
Terran vs Zerg: 0.481413 (1614)
Protoss vs Terran: 0.550758 (2177)
Protoss vs Protoss: 0.500000 (2056)
Protoss vs Zerg: 0.447737 (1856)
Zerg vs Terran: 0.522992 (1631)
Zerg vs Protoss: 0.552263 (1856)
Zerg vs Zerg: 0.500000 (900)
Korean vs Korean TvP is as low as 45%. Foreign Terrans have a 29% win-rate vs Korean Protoss, meanwhile Foreign Protoss have a 37% win-rate vs Korean Terrans. Protoss is definitely overpowered, kiddo.
what the hell is that data set… none of that has anything to do with win percentage over the last year lol. It only is 2 numbers
Toss wins, 10435
Terran wins, 9706
General rule I’ve learned in my line of work, if someone hits you with a wall of irrelevant numbers trying to answer a simple question, odds are that wall is hiding a pile of b&!! $*().
Every recorded game in Aligulac during 2020, filtered by region in addition to matchup. I can provide a list of every match, including player names, the dates the matches occurred, and the names of the tournaments for which the matches were played (I can do more, but I think you get the point).
No I don’t.
show 2 numbers
number of toss wins
number of terran wins
Why would you filter by region and player name? You made a prediction about win percentage, why the hell would i care about the player name? You’re just avoiding admitting your prediction was way off.
The average of Aligulac pvt monthly wr during 20202 is 51,77%, not 55%+. How the wr can be 55%+ if we only had just 1 spike and the max reached was under 55%?.
Did he just take down his post saying PVT was 55% in 2020 because he saw his math mistake LOL
how long before he just takes the whole thread down because he knows he was wrong.
Bet he reposts the same bs under a different thread in a month complaining.
https://i.imgur.com/QyXiCL5.png
Please stop lying. You only hurt your own reputation when you lie.
It’s 55% in premier tournaments for all regions. It’s 55% in Korea for all tournaments. Code S is a Premier Korean tournament. So when we are talking about Protoss’ ability to win events at the highest skill level (korean, premier), it is relevant to bring up the fact that Protoss is favored at this level and has been for about 2 years. They can’t win tournaments because of a skill deficit that is larger than their current balance advantage.
Notice when you check the math on these self proclaimed forum quants they need to add a bunch of qualifiers and corrections.
Pvt win rate is not 55%, it’s not even the 53% you got with your vudoo model that doesn’t even work. Over the last year pvt has been barely 1 and a half percent over even and if you really want to obsess over the premier level, toss hasn’t won a premier tournament in LOTV during which TvT finals have become a mainstay. Terran has all the tools needed to finish tournaments at the most premier level And holds more than even at every other level. Long story short, in the words of blizzards one dev team this month… don’t whine about balance, LTP.
Why is Batz, the only one that needs to actively provide numbers. Whereas you provided absolutely nothing but 1 sentence claims. And when you are proven blatantly false, you dodge the question or throw an insult? Why?
Hahaha these forums have degraded so much. My posts are automatically removed.
This is far too easy. The quality of forum trolls has, unfortunately, degraded greatly.
Oops, reply to the wrong person, but he is right that it’s getting better over time. If you don’t think PvT is getting better however, know that the situation is worse for ZvP in Z’s favor.
Yes, I’ve already got a dopple ganger using my name to troll the forums.
This is sad, I miss the old forums where you can more easily identify the same old trolls. But now ppl like Shonix can freely make 100 accounts and each and every time he gets embarrassed and discredited, he can come back with a new name on a clean slate.
Only thing easy is your cherry picked data disregarding 90% of the available games to fit your narrative. If you have to throw out 90% of data to support your hypothesis, it’s probably wrong.
Here is a fun one. Shonix blasts the creator of the thread for using a “non randomized” sample when he uses ladder stats to estimate the number of smurf accounts. Shonix then proceeds to say he, and other “high-level” players, can recognize smurfs and estimates they happen once in every 20 games, which is much less than the OP estimates.
In other words, he is saying an estimation on ladder data is wrong because it’s non-randomized, meanwhile his anecdotal estimations based on his own play are MUCH more accurate. He does this while claiming to have a Masters in statistics. I kid you not!
He gets absolutely taken to the cleaners by Trias, then starts spouting BS like this:
I think I can agree with most of that : a single 3-0 or 4-0 match cannot be used to draw balance conclusions by itself, as it’s too small to make for a sample size, and the players’ styles and skills might counter each other in strong way (independently from the MU). They can be hints to pinpoint specific points though, but for me assessing balance requires to take in account multiple factors, including winrates with a decent duration/sample size (such as Aligulac’s monthly ones), leagues representation, tournament victories, games analysis at different timings, etc. etc.
Nevertheless, while PvT might’ve been often slightly protoss favored, it was far from being an insuperable advantage. Particularly at high level, as TY demonstrated it in this example. 
A word about this.
When I started this thread, the population estimates I initially did were mere observational reports. Cheezecake (Shonix ?), highlighted that those estimates weren’t randomized, and as such weren’t independent from me as a player. His own estimate however was not even randomized, but also non standardized in the least, which allowed me to defend my work in a verbal bout.
However, though I still think that his vision is often needlessly black and white, he had a point in saying that my data was imperfect. And, later on, in another thread and without recognizing each other at first, he made a valuable suggestion on a possible workaround. Which, with some additional research, allowed me to perform randomized surveys I consider of higher quality.
So, while his argumentation had flaws as a verbal bout, in terms of statistics, in this very example, I consider he had a point.
As for the statistical debate you two had (in that thread ?), what little I saw on the purely statistical plan seemed beyond my knowledge TBH. ^^
Yes he did but he was extremely hypocritical about it. He said your sampling was biased and then as proof he talks about a sampling method biased in an almost identical fashion.
He is black and white when dealing with others, but with himself he gives a great amount of leniency. If you slightly misunderstand something he says, regardless of how poorly he communicates, he instantly attacks you for it. But if he misunderstands a dozen things in a row, that’s somehow your fault, too.
He just doesn’t bother to read and understand what other people are saying. More often than not, he will be arguing my points for me without realizing it, thinking he’s proving me wrong. It’s hilarious.
He tries to make it as difficult to understand as he possibly can. Rather than saying “proportion” he will use the short-hand “p” which can also have half a dozen other meanings. I am not sure which one you are referring to but the last time he and I “talked” was about premier event win-rates and we were arguing about the maximum variance of a binomial distribution vs the maximum variance of sampling of a binomial distribution. The proportion of a binomial distribution (ratio of yes/no answers) has a huge affect on the variance of the distribution itself.
i angree with zalphabet ho no wat he talk about