Smurfs: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly - Q&A

[Trias-2243]

@Cheezecake-1895

we come across a smurf much less than 1/20 games.

@Cheezecake-1895

Its much much easier to tell someone’s actual skill level the higher you are.

The problem with a lot of players your level is that they only look at the end result instead of the entire course of the game. Most times the critical window where the game is decided is early on in the game, but the game doesn’t end there, the player who has the advantage keeps getting more and more ahead and by the time the end game it feels completely one sided when in reality one player barely eeked out an advantage.

You didn’t answer the question. What was your method to confirm smurfs ?

@Cheezecake-1895

This is a biased non-random sample, in other words its a completely trash method at estimating the true percentage of smurfs. Source: Masters in Statistics.

Pro tip for your source then :

• If P = 1/x is the probability for a regular player to meet a smurf
• Then the probability of two smurfs meeting isn’t P, but P x P, in other words (1/x) x (1/x)

What you did there with the highly factual “I know 'cause I’m higher level” completely non standardized biased method, wasn’t in fact evaluating the probability of playing a smurf, but the probability of a smurf playing another smurf.

Which means the probability for a regular player of meeting a smurf is much higher. If we take your highly non biased standardized master statistics of 1/20, then if

• 1/20 = (1/x) x (1/x)
• then 1/20 = 1/x²
• then x = √20 = 4,47
  Which means P = 1/4.47 = 0.22 = 22%

Which is even more than what I said.

@Trias-2243

10-15% usually

As for having the sample randomized, it is as I don’t choose the opponents I am matched against. Plus my method to confirm smurfs is replicable, and objective. If you had to make constructive criticism, it would rather be on the limits of the studied MMR.

Now if you want to submit a new and improved double blind randomized smurf trial on a population sized sample, you’re welcome to post it here. But currently, I am under the impression that your method is even less commendable than mine.