I think the fact everyone believes it is RNG in the first place should be reason enough; It’s the entire reason we play the gamemode in the first place.
Overall, it should be around a 1% chance, per game, that you get a repeat hero. Going off my past 20 games, it is a ~65% chance that I will get at least 1 repeated hero.
Too everyone that says it is actually randomly picked hero’s, here is a simple and effective way to prove you wrong:
Start up your game, play a few rounds of MH, and jot down how many times you get a duplicate hero in a single match. Take note that you will only get a duplicate if you did ‘well’ as that hero, and your team starts losing. You can and will often get games where you get more duplicate heros than unique ones, if you die a lot/very little.
Now, it is a 3.4% chance that, in real RNG, any one hero is picked. It is less than a .2% chance that you will get that same hero picked twice. Even assuming you die 30 times, that only bumps it up to a 3.4% chance you will get duplicates in a single game, assuming it were actually random. I am sure someone can refine my math if they want, I rounded up.
So either Blizzard’s algorithm could turn monkeys on typewriters into pure gold, or they have it rigged up to make things ‘balanced’; Which is not why anyone plays that game, to my knowledge. We want chaos, we want randomness, we want a unique experience with every new spawn.
Do what I said.
You don’t get .2% (or worse, when you get TWO duplicates, or even the same three times) odds seventeen out of twenty matches if it’s random.
i have 560 hrs played…everyone that isnt one of the most recently released heroes is within 10 hrs of each other (vast majority within 5) with the noticeable exception of doomfist who i tend to pretty much immediately die on (hes 12 hrs off from top)…and i cant say there is any discernible pattern as to who is near the top and bottom…it sure as heck looks random to me
and yeah on occasion i will get the same hero 2-3 times in a round…but that doesnt mean its not random…
‘Sometimes weird stats’
These are ‘I won the jackpot lottery twice’ levels of improbable. I’m not even good enough at math to mathematically describe how low of a chance this is to you.
Just while typing this, I played a game. Got 3 Zarya in 5 deaths. I want YOU to do the math on that one, tell me what percentage of a chance that is, and tell me it’s just totally normally random that I get that exact same percentage often.
…and this is true. The Law of Probability says that probability doesn’t have a memory. Even if you do get a duplicated hero, it was still random. All the chances reset themselves every time a random hero is picked. if you do get a duplicated hero, count yourself lucky. It happened. No rhyme, no reason, IT JUST HAPPENED. Even lightning has been known to strike twice despite the impossibility of it all (and there has been a recorded instance of a person getting struck seven times by lightning).
No conspiracies. It’s just called “life”. We all have to deal with it.
If you have the notion, next time you play just start keeping track of the heros you get in a single game. Take note of the ones you do especially well on, and see if you don’t get those heros again when your team is losing.
You’ll be getting chances well above 10%, (for me it was around 60%) when it should be around a 1% value (Accounting for an average number of deaths)
Lighting strikes twice.
But if lightning strikes seven times in the spawn of three hours, then that lighting is striking for a reason that is not random.
“You can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice.
If you choose not to decide, you’ll still have made a choice.
You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill.
I will choose a path that’s clear, I will choose free will.”
but it definitely shouldn’t be no limits, and to have a 114 lock wouldn’t be too terrible
the idea behind mystery heroes is to get a comp that you can learn from and apply to your competitive games. Among other things like practicing new heroes.
well in the 2 that ive played your reply i havent gotten any duplicates…but it didnt matter anyway cause they were roflstomps due to hero stacking (as usual)…you want to talk about actual problems with MH…start with that one
My normal game of MH is herostacking on one team, after minutes they get crushed by one good push, then the tides turn and the other team is herostacked, until the first team gets a handful of great heros and turn the tide again. Almost always because the best two people got the heros they were dominating with before a second time.
OR
We keep getting manure heros that we can’t push with, probably because our best players are getting repeats they couldn’t push with before. Several dozen deaths that almost never cycle through the roster.
I didn’t keep good enough track of my data to actually make it presentable, but the pattern is pretty clear: The heros that do the most work, get repeated. Doesn’t matter if that work was actually valuable, it’s just relative to the rest of the team or something.
I hate the “RNG” on mystery heroes. I just don’t get it when you play a game that is supposed to be random, but sometimes random means that one team gets an insane comp and the other gets all tracer. It makes the game so much less interesting because you are really fighting their awesome comp and your bad one, not really playing the game.
I would like to see some logic to avoid one side getting like 3 turrets on defense while you are still waiting for a healer for the whole game, or some other unbalanced scenario.
