Why is every ARAM a one hero pick?!

Can someone fix this?

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It isn’t though. Unless you actually show proof you are getting mirrors literally every ARAM.

It’s just 2% chance. You should get a mirror 2 out of 100 games.

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it’s been 3 games in a row now, other people in game are reporting the same thing

proof: https://imgur.com/a/Oc9SdSk

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In older games, blizz would do “psuedo random distribution” (prd) in their programming, so streaks were less likely, but specific events could be more predictable. (eg a 15% crit chance would ensure a crit on the 7th hit if the previous 6 were not crits)

HotS specifically doesn’t use PRD, so low-chance events can still have streaks.

I haven’t had a mirror since the 2% change, so someone else must be getting my share of them instead

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Yes it is a common topic in the forums about how bad MM mode is and on top of that it doesn’t seem to me like 2% chance is even accurate. Someone needs to get back from vacation and check the code here.

By the way. The likelihood of hitting 3 “back-to-back-to-back” games when the odds are 2% is like: .0008% (it’s happened to me before too).

Wow that is wild that you got 3 in a row. I have only gotten them 2 or 3 times since they dialed it down.

I’d just consider it a freak event and move on. Sometimes you just get the short end of the stick, although I would imagine that an all Rag battle would be pretty fun. Meatballs EVERYWHERE!

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I like this way of looking at this issue. The chances the OP will have mirror games again, anytime soon, is probably very low indeed.

Like you mentioned, since the change was made to lower the chances of mirror games, I’ve had only one mirror game.

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Because you are too preoccupied with winning instead of having fun.

Self-improvement and analysis can only be performed by the person asking. Though if you really want to be lazy, you can try hypnotism. They will of course, make you sign a waiver.

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<user deleted this post, you should report this post for trolling>

it’s less a “freak event” and more that people are really bad at probability.

is an example of something that should be “wrong” but that’s due to math stuffs. Basically, it only takes 23 people to have more than 50% chance that two people share a birthday.

A person may run the math only in relation to their own, and thus neglect the possibility that others in the group could then share dates.

chuckbronson prattles on about low-probability events because, like the “birthday problem,” his understanding pretty much assumes that he’s the only person getting matches and that match-making doesn’t function when he’s not playing.

Complaints fixate on “runs” (games in sequence) and not in ratios of their own games, let alone a consideration to how many other people are playing.

Like with “forced 50”, runs happen all the time “naturally”, but people don’t think in math and probability and they’s just as soon as impose their impulse on the rest of the universe than consider that the rest of then universe is more influential than they are.

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I understand for some to not like Mirror matches. Even if they do get it once in a while. But until they implement QMAM or DRAFT All Mid, this is what we got. If they remove Mirror, those who like Mirror will suffer, while those who hate Mirror will only suffer sometimes…

Three of my last ~15 games have been one-hero games.

I realize it’s statistically possible, but…

Yeah. They’re fun the first time one or two times you see them.

By now, whenever I get one of those games, half the team Alt+F4’s out.

I also see in your list that you got around 6 ARAMs that weren’t mirror. Where is the post thanking the devs the game didn’t give you Mirror matches that many times? Please understand that it is possible to have a Mirror match every single time.

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oh my gward
like it almost like I know its hard to believe but like totally it’s like
Random
and like
that like why like you have some all same hero and like some not the same
cus like
random :nail_care:
oh my gward

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If I get 4 mirror arams in a row with teammates i’ve never played before telling me that they also get only mirrors, then clearly this is an issue of how the server instantiates games under mix of circumstances, that occured at that moment. Games ar not being created by rolling a dice but caclulating multiple factors.

And how many mirrors in a row do i have to play, with people reporting the same problem, to be allowed to consider this suspicious, report it and not being attacked with cringe comments? 3 games is not enough i guess so how many? :wink:

It doesn’t seem to be a general problem. I played a bunch of ARAM last night, and never saw a mirror, nor did anyone mention a problem in chat.

What server were you playing on?

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Actually, it’s not.

You’re fixing on streaks, but probability doesn’t preclude that streaks can’t happen.

As seen with your ‘proof’, you aren’t getting same hero “every” aram, so even if you have a streak, you aren’t showing that the severs are distributing more than 2% of the games played.

While many players fixate on ‘streaks’, a game lasts several minutes, and you simply aren’t the next roll the matchmaking makes for the next queue because you’re already in a game. If I play an aram, quit, later play another aram, it isn’t any less likely for me to get “same hero in a row” by staggering by games as it would be if continue to play one game after the next.

Having something be “2%” means people would just as soon as assume that it "never’ happens rather than there’s 50x times more games people played than they bothered to consider. Having a couple of other complainers also exaggerate their experience isn’t proof that something is ‘wrong’ with the code, especially since the reverse seems to hold up that some players haven’t gotten any same-hero matches.

Average rate doesn’t mean averaged distribution.

I’ll just agree to that logic… I have had exactly one mirror game in ARAM since they decreased the odds. Since the patch, I’ve never encountered anyone in ARAM who said they have had back to back mirror games.

My anecdotal evidence, is as good as yours, so where does this put us? I’d say buy a lottery ticket or something, you seem to be defying the odds, which can happen with random chance, lucky you!

I had a Simply Amazing MM game over the weekend guys. Let me explain:

Everyone on my team was mad when MM Aram launched. 1 guy on our team left. A couple others started complaining “not again…” and “WHY!!!”

To my delight, The game launched and the entire enemy team actually left and the game ended before the gates even opened. It was the best MM game I’ve ever had.